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Will there be a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war? It all depends on Russia now. Ukraine said it agreed to the 30-day ceasefire proposal. Meanwhile, the US wants Russia to agree to an unconditional halt to hostilities. But will that be possible? Will Russian President Vladimir Putin agree to it?
On Wednesday, President Donald Trump said US negotiators are headed to Moscow to secure a ceasefire in the Ukraine war. "People are going to Russia right now as we speak. And hopefully, we can get a ceasefire from Russia," Trump was quoted by AFP as saying during an Oval Office meeting with Ireland's Prime Minister Micheal Martin.
The White House said that Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff, a mediator in the Gaza and Ukraine wars, would be in Moscow this week. Meanwhile, the Guardian reported that US envoys are expected to hold talks with Vladimir Putin by the end of the week. As per the report, the White House said US national security adviser Mike Waltz spoke to his Russian counterpart on Wednesday.
During a key meeting in Saudi Arabia this week, top officials of the US and Ukraine achieved consensus on a 30-day halt in the Ukraine and Russia conflict, which began when Russia launched a full-scale invasion three years ago.
While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky agreed to the deal, Russia has yet to respond. The ceasefire will only be imposed if Russia's Vladimir Putin agrees to it, too.
"Ukraine expressed readiness to accept the US proposal to enact an immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire, which can be extended by mutual agreement of the parties, and which is subject to acceptance and concurrent implementation by the Russian Federation," read a joint statement by the US and Ukraine released on March 11.
The United States said it will immediately lift the pause on intelligence sharing and resume security assistance to Ukraine.
The ceasefire deal also included exchange of prisoners of war.
The statement read, “The delegations [of the US and Ukraine] also discussed the importance of humanitarian relief efforts as part of the peace process, particularly during the above-mentioned ceasefire, including the exchange of prisoners of war, the release of civilian detainees, and the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children.”
Ukraine and the US had agreed to sign a minerals deal as soon as possible, giving the US access to Ukraine's natural wealth.
Trump insisted that the deal was essential to repay the US for the more than $180 billion in American aid sent to Kyiv since the start of the war.
"Both countries’ presidents agreed to conclude as soon as possible a comprehensive agreement for developing Ukraine’s critical mineral resources to expand Ukraine’s economy and guarantee Ukraine’s long-term prosperity and security," the press statement read.
It stated that the US is committed to discussing these specific proposals with representatives from Russia. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian delegation reiterated that European partners shall be involved in the peace process.
Two people familiar with the matter said Russia presented Washington with a list of demands for a deal to end the Ukraine war and reset relations with the United States, according to Reuters.
The specific demands were not clear, nor whether Russia was willing to enter peace talks with Kyiv prior to their acceptance.
Sources reportedly said the demands were similar to previous Kremlin terms, including no NATO membership for Ukraine, recognition of Russia's claim to Crimea and four Ukrainian provinces and an agreement that foreign troops not be deployed in Ukraine.
Russia earlier said it would review details from Washington about a proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine before responding.
Eitvydas Bajarūnas, a Visiting Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) and former Lithuanian Ambassador to Russia, believe that position of China, Russia's ally, in the matter could play a crucial role.
"While the ceasefire does not yet achieve Putin’s long-term goal of controlling all of Ukraine, Russia’s struggling economy and military fatigue might make a short pause useful to the Kremlin. A crucial external factor will be China’s stance. If Beijing supports a ceasefire agreement, it may pressure Russia to comply," Bajarūnas said in a statement to Mint.
The Kremlin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago. Russia, which has been making advances, now holds around a fifth of Ukraine's territory, including Crimea, which it annexed in 2014, Reuters reported. Russia has previously ruled out territorial concessions and said Ukraine must withdraw fully from four Ukrainian regions claimed and partly controlled by Russia, according to the report.
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