BackSluggish vaccine rollout threatens global recovery
International agencies predicted global growth to stage a recovery in 2021, on the assumption that vaccination drives around the globe will wipe out the virus. However, immunization hasn’t begun in most parts of the world, and where it has, it’s been painfully slow. Mint explores.
PremiumInternational agencies predicted global growth to stage a recovery in 2021, on the assumption that vaccination drives around the globe will wipe out the virus. However, immunization hasn’t begun in most parts of the world, and where it has, it’s been painfully slow. Mint explores.
How is vaccination progressing globally?
Slowly. Since the vaccination drive began on 8 December in the UK, just over 64 million doses (not people, as dose regimen may vary) have been administered, until 23 January. Even advanced economies, that were the first to kick off immunization, have been lagging their targets. For example, the US aimed to vaccinate 20 million people by 2020-end itself, but has been able to administer about 20.5 million doses so far. It has administered just over six doses per 100 people, the UK more than 10, while the European Union trails at less than 2 doses. In poorer parts of the world, inoculation hasn’t even started yet.
What are the factors slowing down efforts?
The immunization programme will test every nation’s patience, resources and health infra. Vaccine shortage is proving to be the main reason behind the tardy pace of inoculation. Moderna, Pfizer-BioNTech, and AstraZeneca—firms whose vaccines have received nod in key markets—are finding it difficult to ramp up output capacity. Both Pfizer and BioNTech had to cut supplies temporarily in order to boost production. Poor coordination, for example, in America’s complex health system, and logistical gaps have dampened distribution and jab-administration. Vaccine hesitancy is also partly at fault.
How has India fared so far in its vaccination endeavour?
India started world’s biggest immunization drive on 16 Jan with Oxford-AstraZeneca’s Covishield, produced at Pune-based Serum Institute and Bharat Biotech’s Covaxin, whose approval was mired in controversy. Despite the initial hiccups, India has so far administered more than 1.6 million doses and aims to vaccinate nearly 300 million citizens by August.
How will a delay impact the economy?
The slower the pace of rollout, the longer it will take for businesses to operate at full steam, delaying a rebound in global growth. The World Bank had earlier this month lowered its 2021 global growth forecast to 4% and warned of a much-muted 1.6% expansion if the virus wasn’t curbed. Double-dip recessions are being feared in the UK, Japan and Eurozone even as stricter curbs are in place to tackle the virus’ resurgence. Fortunately, India’s daily new infections and deaths have fallen sharply since the mid-September peak.
What are the risks going forward?
The main worry is the emergence of new variants of the virus that can render vaccines ineffective. Vaccines may be less effective against new variants, such as those found in Brazil and South Africa. Another key concern is unequal access to vaccines. Poorer nations are yet to access doses, while their richer counterparts have secured more supplies than they need. As per a report, if adequate doses are not supplied to poorer nations, advanced economies risk an output loss of up to $2.4 trillion of their pre-pandemic GDP.
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