Strait of Hormuz: Iran’s grip slips as ships increasingly use UN-authorised Oman route; US blockade gains ground

The Strait of Hormuz, which became the focal point of the world soon after the conflict started between the US-Israeli combine and Iran on 28 February, continues to grab attention six months later, with now both the US and Iran claiming their total control over the waterway.

The competing rhetoric between the two countries is causing doubt and confusion, but one thing is becoming apparent: Tehran is losing its grip on the strait, and the US, which has continued its blockade of the region with its navy, is strengthening its grip over the region.

The majority (around 80%) of vessels that have transited this crucial waterway, over the past two weeks, have used an Omani route, which is a shipping channel authorised by the United Nations, according to Kpler, which tracks shipping worldwide.

Iran has been attacking several ships that are trying to traverse through Hormuz using the northern Omani coast, according to media reports. With the US offering them protection, most ships have decided to ignore Tehran's demands and cross the Strait, according to media reports.

CNN spoke to Kpler's head of crude oil analysis, Homayoun Falakshahi, who told the publication, “It increasingly looks like Iran has at least partially lost control of the strait.”

The situation now is starkly different from what it was a month ago. Kpler says that then there was hardly any traffic using the Omani route. Unlike it did in spring, Iran is now having difficulty collecting tolls from ships passing through Hormuz.

With the temporary ceasefire deal between Iran and the US expiring this week, Tehran has the option to resume charging tolls on ships using the Strait, but it has been unable to do so.

“Iran’s request to collect tolls is something that most Middle East folks don’t want to do and haven’t been doing,” Pickering Energy Partners founder Dan Pickering told CNN.

“So the Oman route absolutely makes the most sense,” he added.

How Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, UAE are navigating the Strait

Arab neighbours of Iran, namely Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, are using Very Large Crude oil Carriers (VLCCs), which are the biggest oil tankers available, to ship their oil out of the Persian Gulf via Hormuz, and then once out of the danger zone, the oil is being transferred to the tankers of their customers in the Gulf of Oman, the publication reported citing the president of Lipow Oil Associates.

These tankers turn their transponders off to avoid detection by Iran. This dark traffic, although difficult to track by traditional means, can hardly pass undetected by the US military forces that have established a blockade at Hormuz.

The US military has reported that oil shipments through the Strait have increased significantly.

Last week, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright revealed that oil transiting through the waterway, as well as that rerouted around it, was about 15 million barrels per day, closing the gap with the pre-war 20-million-barrels-a-day average.

Trump declares control, Iran fights back

The increasing dominance of the US in the Strait of Hormuz led Trump to post on Truth Social that the waterway is "NEW U.S. Territory".

Iran took strong exception to this claim, and its Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi called Trump a 'deluded man': "Just as Trump correctly wrote the name of the eternal Persian Gulf, soon his delusion regarding the Strait of Hormuz will either be corrected or we will correct the delusions of this deluded man," Gharibabadi said in a post on X.