Syria Coup: Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-led rebels seized control of large parts of Aleppo, one of Syria’s largest cities, after a surprise offensive this week. The rebels also claimed control of the city’s international airport. According to reports, the Syrian rebels later advanced south, towards the central city of Hama.
The Syrian armed opposition announced an effort to expand safe areas and allow displaced civilians in the Idlib province to return to their homes in recently captured territories.
Russian and Syrian government air strikes pounded central Aleppo on Saturday. Russia claimed that the Syrian military killed 300 rebels with Russian air support over the past 24 hours.
Meanwhile, the United States said it “has nothing to do” with the rebel offensive but blamed al-Assad’s reliance on Russia and Iran for the renewed violence.
The forces of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, which had previously held Aleppo, with the support of allies in Iran, Russia and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, have withdrawn as rebels make further inroads into Aleppo.
The push is among the Syrian rebels’ is the strongest in years in a war whose destabilizing effects have rippled far beyond the country’s borders.
It was the first opposition attack on Aleppo since 2016, when a brutal air campaign by Russian warplanes helped Syrian President Bashar Assad retake the northwestern city. Intervention by Russia, Iran and Iranian-allied Hezbollah and other groups has allowed Assad to remain in power, within the 70% of Syria under his control.
For years, many believed that despite the complex web of control in Syria – with the US-backed Kurdish forces, Turkish-supported Sunni factions, and Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia backing the regime – the government in Damascus had managed to maintain its grip.
The US controlled parts of eastern Syria, Israel conducted airstrikes at will, and even though Pakistan-based ISIS had been defeated, it still posed a threat through sporadic attacks.
Given these challenges, the fact that the Syrian government had survived seemed like an accomplishment in itself.
However, this fragile illusion of regime stability was shattered this week when the opposition, led by the rebranded Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra), launched a surprise offensive from Idlib province. In just 72 hours, the rebels managed to capture large swathes of territory, including making their way into the heart of Aleppo.
By Saturday evening, social media in Syria was abuzz with reports of the government forces crumbling across the north, as rebel forces advanced towards the central city of Hama. The city, infamous for the brutal 1982 massacre ordered by Bashar al-Assad’s father, saw the regime crush an uprising led by the Muslim Brotherhood. Now, as rebels press forward, questions arise: why has the government’s grip on the north suddenly faltered?
One clear explanation points to the weakening of Syria’s key allies – Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah – who have all been stretched thin and unable to maintain their support for the regime.
Hezbollah, which played a pivotal role in propping up the Syrian government throughout the civil war, has pulled most of its forces back to Lebanon after facing intense pressure from Israel since October 7, 2023. The group’s leadership has been severely hit, further reducing its influence in Syria.
Russia, once a major military backer of President Assad, is now focused on the ongoing war in Ukraine. Its strategic shift has left a significant gap in support for the Syrian regime. Meanwhile, Iran’s presence in Syria has been undermined by frequent Israeli strikes on its advisers and military bases, adding to the mounting pressure on Assad’s forces.
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