Explained: How Iran’s power grid works as Trump escalates threats to energy infrastructure

US President Donald Trump threatened to “hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST” unless Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. Trump's threat has shifted attention to a critical question underpinning the escalating conflict: how resilient is Iran’s power grid to sustained military attack?

The warning, issued on Truth Social, marks a sharp escalation in a war now in its fourth week, with coordinated US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets. Tehran has responded by warning the Strait would be closed “completely” if its energy infrastructure is attacked. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said “delirious threats on the battlefield” would only strengthen national unity and that the waterway “is open to all except those who violate our soil.”

Why Power Infrastructure Has Become a Strategic Target

In Iran’s case, the power grid is deeply intertwined with industrial production, water desalination, and digital networks, making it a high-value target.

Iranian officials have already indicated that any such attack would invite retaliation against “all energy, information technology, and desalination infrastructure” linked to the US and its allies in the region, signalling a potential widening of the conflict into critical civilian systems.

A System Built on Thermal Dominance

Iran’s electricity network remains overwhelmingly dependent on thermal generation. According to Iran’s Ministry of Energy, more than 95% of its electricity is produced by gas- and oil-fired plants, with hydroelectric output contributing less than 5% in practice due to reservoir constraints.

Iran operates around 130 thermal power stations with a combined capacity of approximately 78,000 megawatts. Around 20 plants exceed 1,000 megawatts, while several surpass 2,000 megawatts, forming the backbone of national supply.

Key Power Hubs in Iran and Structural Distribution

Major facilities include the Damavand plant, producing roughly 2,900 megawatts, alongside the Neka and Rajaei plants, which together anchor supply across northern and central Iran. The Tehran region is supported by a cluster of large installations, complemented by smaller urban plants that provide additional grid stability.

This geographic dispersion ensures that no single facility is solely responsible for electricity supply, complicating attempts to cripple the system through targeted strikes.

Hard Targets, Limited Strategic Payoff

Despite their strategic importance, large power plants are difficult to disable. Facilities such as Damavand span vast areas, with multiple generating units and redundant systems, requiring sustained and coordinated attacks.

Even then, the strategic payoff may be limited. The destruction of Iran’s largest plant would remove only about 3–4% of total capacity, insufficient to trigger a nationwide blackout and potentially offset by redistributing load or curbing electricity exports.

A Decentralised Grid Built for Resilience

Iran’s grid is highly decentralised, spanning more than 133,000 kilometres of transmission lines and over 1.3 million kilometres when distribution networks are included. It is supported by hundreds of thousands of transformers and thousands of substations.

While substations are more vulnerable and can trigger localised outages, they are also easier to repair. Recent disruptions in western Tehran and Karaj caused temporary blackouts but were resolved within hours, demonstrating system resilience.

Can Iran Be Plunged Into Darkness?

A nationwide blackout appears unlikely through conventional strikes alone. The dispersed nature of Iran’s generation and transmission network means damage would likely result in localised and temporary disruptions rather than systemic collapse.

However, sustained attacks targeting multiple nodes—including substations, fuel supply chains, and control systems—could degrade reliability over time and impose cumulative strain.

Global Stakes: Oil, Markets and War Expansion

The stakes extend far beyond Iran. Brent crude has climbed to around $114 a barrel, while US crude is hovering near $100, reflecting sharp volatility amid escalating tensions. Analysts, including those at Goldman Sachs, have warned that elevated energy prices could persist for years if disruption continues.

The human cost is also mounting, with more than 1,500 reported dead in Iran, over 1,000 in Lebanon, and casualties reported in Israel and among US personnel.

International concern is rising. French President Emmanuel Macron has called for freedom of navigation in Hormuz, while more than 20 countries—including the UK, Germany, Japan and Canada—have expressed readiness to support safe maritime passage.