Trump calls for new pact as New START nuclear treaty between US and Russia expires: Could China be included?

US President Donald Trump on Thursday urged a new nuclear treaty following the expiration of the previous agreement with Russia, raising concerns about a potential global arms race.

The Trump administration has consistently advocated for China’s inclusion in any new deal, given its expanding, but still much smaller, nuclear arsenal compared with Russia and the United States. However, Beijing has publicly resisted such proposals.

Trump has largely remained silent on Russian appeals to extend New START, the 2010 treaty that placed the last limits on the two largest nuclear powers after decades of Cold War-era agreements.

What did Trump say?

Hours after it ended, Trump slammed it, saying the agreement, signed by former president Barack Obama and extended by former president Joe Biden, was “badly negotiated” and “is being grossly violated".

He added on his Truth Social account, “We should have our Nuclear Experts work on a new, improved, and modernised Treaty that can last long into the future.”

Could China join a potential new treaty?

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Wednesday that Trump has emphasised that “in order to have true arms control in the 21st century, it’s impossible to do something that doesn’t include China because of their vast and rapidly growing stockpile”.

During his first term, Trump attempted but failed to negotiate a three-way nuclear agreement with China. Beijing has resisted any limits on its smaller yet expanding nuclear arsenal, while urging the US to restart nuclear talks with Russia.

“China’s nuclear forces are not at all on the same scale as those of the U.S. and Russia, and thus China will not participate in nuclear disarmament negotiations at the current stage,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said on Thursday, according to AP.

He added that China regrets the expiration of New START and called on the US to promptly resume nuclear dialogue with Russia, responding positively to Moscow’s suggestion that both sides continue observing the treaty’s core limits for the time being.

China’s nuclear arsenal has been expanding more rapidly than any other nation, adding roughly 100 new warheads per year since 2023, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, as per AFP. The institute projects that China now possesses at least 600 nuclear warheads, still significantly fewer than the 800-warhead limit set for both Russia and the United States under New START.

Russia reacts

Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Wednesday about the treaty’s expiration, highlighting the US failure to respond to his proposal to extend its limits. Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov said Putin noted that Russia “will act in a balanced and responsible manner based on thorough analysis of the security situation.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Moscow views the treaty's expiration on Thursday “negatively” and expressed regret. He added that Russia will uphold its “responsible, thorough approach to stability when it comes to nuclear weapons,” noting that "of course, it will be guided primarily by its national interests.” Peskov also stressed that “if we receive constructive responses, we will certainly conduct a dialogue.”

On Thursday, Peskov reiterated that Moscow respects Beijing’s stance. He and other Russian officials have consistently argued that any effort to negotiate a broader nuclear agreement beyond a US-Russia deal should also include the nuclear arsenals of NATO members France and the UK.

What is New START?

New START, signed in 2010 by then-president Barack Obama and former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, limited each country to no more than 1,550 nuclear warheads and 700 deployed missiles and bombers. The treaty, originally set to expire in 2021, was extended for an additional five years.

The agreement included extensive on-site inspections to ensure compliance, but these were suspended in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and never resumed.

Putin, in February 2023, halted Moscow’s participation, citing concerns over US inspections of Russian nuclear sites amid what he described as Washington and NATO’s declared aim of defeating Russia in Ukraine. Despite the suspension, the Kremlin stressed that it was not fully withdrawing from the treaty and would continue to honour the caps on its nuclear arsenal.

In September, Putin offered to maintain New START’s limits for one more year to allow time for negotiations on a successor deal, warning that letting the treaty expire could destabilise global security and encourage nuclear proliferation.

New START was the last in a long line of arms control agreements between the US and Russia, beginning with SALT I in 1972, designed to curb their nuclear arsenals.