Will 3-nation Gulf tour be a ‘happy place’ for US president—and what's on the platter?

During his visit to the Middle East this week, US President Donald Trump is set to travel to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. However, his most urgent regional concerns lie elsewhere, specifically with Israel and Iran.

Israel has intensified military operations in the Gaza Strip after ending a ceasefire two months ago, worsening an already severe humanitarian crisis due to ongoing blockades on essential goods like food and medicine. Meanwhile, Iran, both a rival to Saudi Arabia and an adversary of Israel, is nearing the capability to develop nuclear weapons, as per a report by AP.

Despite rising regional tensions, Trump’s travel schedule focuses on three wealthy Gulf states where Trump-branded real estate developments are already underway or in the pipeline. In these countries, he is expected to emphasise US economic interests and engage in what he is known to relish most, making business deals.

Will the Gulf be a ‘happy place’ for Trump?

“This is his happy place,” Jon B. Alterman, a senior vice president at the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies, told the Associated Press.

“His hosts will be generous and hospitable. They’ll be keen to make deals. They’ll flatter him and not criticise him. And they’ll treat his family members as past and future business partners.”

However, Trump won’t be able to completely sidestep diplomatic discussions on Gaza and Iran, as the Gulf nations hosting him are also keen on reducing regional tensions stemming from both conflicts.

“Trump can easily score a win by reassuring them of America’s strategic commitment to the region, demonstrating consistent messaging and generally rising above the fray,” analysts Elizabeth Dent and Simon Henderson of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy wrote Friday, AP reported.

Is Trump ignoring Israel?

By choosing not to include Israel in his first Middle East trip during his second term, Trump is reinforcing a perception among Israeli officials and the public that their concerns may no longer be a priority for his administration. This sentiment grew stronger last week after Trump announced the US would cease its strikes on the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, following the group’s agreement to stop targeting American ships in the Red Sea, reported AP.

Also Read: Houthis missile strikes near Israel's Ben Gurion Airport; flights resume after initial disruptions

Trump’s decision to initiate talks with Iran over its nuclear program has also unsettled Israel, which worries that any resulting agreement may fall short of effectively blocking Iran’s path to a nuclear weapon or curbing its backing of militant groups in the region. Israeli officials had been hoping for potential US military support in the event of a strike on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, a scenario that now appears unlikely as long as negotiations are ongoing or if a deal is ultimately reached, AP reported.

That has raised questions in Israel over Trump's reliability on other major issues, like a long-sought normalisation deal with Saudi Arabia as part of any defence pact the administration may reach with the kingdom.

Also Read: Trump administration in talks to accept new Air Force One as gift from Qatar

Saudi Arabia has said it would only normalise ties with Israel in exchange for significant concessions for the Palestinians toward statehood, something the current Israeli government is unlikely to agree to.

Israel has stated it will delay any escalation of its military campaign in Gaza until after President Trump’s visit, potentially allowing space for a new ceasefire agreement to take shape. Both Hamas and Trump announced that Edan Alexander, the last known American hostage in Gaza, will be released as part of broader ceasefire efforts.

However, it remains unclear what role, if any, Israel played in securing that agreement.

No breakthrough in Iran nuclear talks

For Iran, much depends on the talks it is having with the US over its rapidly advancing nuclear program. A reported two-month deadline to reach a deal likely has passed as US officials signal America may push for Iran to give up enrichment entirely, something Tehran has insisted is a red line.

While four rounds of Oman-mediated talks have yet to yield a major breakthrough, they have progressed to the so-called “expert level”, suggesting that detailed aspects of a potential agreement are now under discussion.

Over the weekend, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited both Saudi Arabia and Qatar ahead of President Trump’s regional trip, likely an effort to relay messages to Washington and signal Tehran’s continued interest in negotiations. At the same time, Iranian officials have stepped up warnings about pursuing a nuclear weapon, while both Trump and Israel have threatened military action against Iran’s nuclear sites if diplomacy fails.

The Islamic Republic is running out of options. Its economy has cratered since Trump in 2018 unilaterally pulled America out of its initial nuclear deal with world powers. And Iran's self-described “Axis of Resistance” — a group of aligned nations and militant groups, including Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon — has been mauled since the Israel-Hamas war began.

Iran is also dealing with internal political pressures, notably from a growing number of women who are defying the mandatory hijab law. Yet, one issue that unites many Iranians is national pride in the Persian Gulf. President Trump’s reported consideration of officially referring to it as the “Arabian Gulf” sparked widespread outrage across Iran.

“This gulf has always been the Persian Gulf — and it will forever remain the Persian Gulf,” Tehran’s Friday prayer leader, Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, said.

Is Gulf still not over Trump’s 2017 trip?

Trump will begin his Middle East trip in Saudi Arabia before heading to Qatar, which has recently revealed plans for a Trump-branded real estate project. 

This warm reception marks a sharp contrast to the fallout from his first visit to the region in 2017, which many believe triggered the Qatar crisis.

At that time, Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE imposed a diplomatic and economic blockade on Qatar, accusing it of supporting Islamist groups and maintaining close ties with Iran, with whom it jointly operates a vast offshore natural gas field, as reported by AP.

The dispute grew so serious that Kuwait’s ruling emir at the time, Sheikh Sabah Al Ahmad Al Sabah, suggested that, on a visit to the White House, there could have been “military action”.

At the onset of the regional boycott, Trump harshly criticised Qatar, saying it had “historically been a funder of terrorism at a very high level”.

However, less than a year later, he reversed his stance and publicly praised the country. The diplomatic rift involving four nations was resolved just before President Biden assumed office.

To avoid a repeat of the 2017 diplomatic crisis, Trump “should reemphasise efforts to unite the Gulf”, said Dent and Henderson, of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, as reported by AP.

(With inputs from AP)