‘Operation Economic Outcast’: Why Trump’s ‘economic D-Day’ on Iran faces a tough test?

The Trump administration has launched a sweeping new effort to isolate Iran from the global economy, but turning sanctions into a decisive weapon against Tehran will be harder than announcing them.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday unveiled what he called “Operation Economic Outcast”, describing it as an “economic onslaught” aimed at severing Iran’s financial links with the world.

“Our objective is to sever every economic lifeline that sustains this tyrannical regime until Tehran stands alone,” Bessent said.

“America is no longer managing the Iranian threat. We are ending it,” he added, saying Iran faced two choices: “complete global isolation and a subsistence economy” or “a path back to normalcy with an opportunity to rejoin the global economy.”

But the campaign faces a basic problem: Iran has spent decades learning how to survive sanctions, while some of its biggest trading partners have strong incentives to maintain commercial ties.

Why Trump’s Iran sanctions face a tough test

The latest campaign by US relies heavily on secondary sanctions, allowing Washington to penalise foreign companies and entities that continue doing business with Iran.

The US already has extensive secondary sanctions targeting Iran, particularly its oil sector. Yet enforcement has been uneven, allowing Tehran to maintain trade and oil sales through intermediaries and alternative channels.

The Trump administration is expected to rely on expanded secondary sanctions as its main economic pressure tool at least through the midterm elections. That could allow Washington to intensify pressure without immediately launching another military campaign.

But it also means confronting countries including China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Qatar and Turkey, which continue to maintain economic links with Iran.

Iran has learned to operate under sanctions

Iran has lived under international sanctions for years without fundamentally changing its regional policies or its position on its nuclear programme.

Over time, Tehran has developed alternative trading routes, intermediaries and methods of accessing foreign currency. These networks make it difficult for Washington to eliminate every source of Iranian revenue.

China is particularly important because it remains a major buyer of Iranian oil. If Iranian crude continues reaching buyers through intermediaries and alternative shipping arrangements, the impact of additional sanctions will be limited.

This is the central challenge for Trump: sanctions can make trade harder and more expensive, but they cannot necessarily stop it.

War has already deepened Iran’s economic crisis

Iran is nevertheless entering this new sanctions campaign in a far weaker economic position.

The war and US naval blockade have severely restricted Iranian oil exports, depriving Tehran of a crucial source of foreign revenue. US officials say Iran is struggling to establish alternative transport routes over land or sea, affecting its ability to provide basic goods and services.

The rial fell to around 2 million to the US dollar on Monday, while soaring inflation has pushed food prices higher.

US officials have also said the government is struggling to pay salaries to public-sector workers, including military and police personnel.

“Their system is designed to insulate the elites, but even their purchasing power is plummeting, and some of them — for the first time in their lives — have faced uncertainty about whether their paychecks will arrive on time,” a US official said.

Why economic pain may not force Iran to bend

The severity of Iran’s economic crisis does not automatically mean Tehran will accept Washington’s demands.

Iranian leaders have repeatedly portrayed sanctions as evidence of US hostility, while maintaining the country’s political and security posture.

President Masoud Pezeshkian has acknowledged economic shortages and argued that Iran should seek an end to the war while it remains in a position of strength.

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has also warned that economic weakness could threaten the Islamic Republic’s ability to sustain itself.

“No matter how much military power we have,” he said, “if people are hungry and we don't have financial circulation, economic growth and domestic production, we will not endure.”

The real test for US is Iran’s trading partners

For Trump, the biggest test may therefore be outside Iran.

Washington can sanction companies and threaten foreign governments, but forcing major economies such as China and India to sever commercial ties with Tehran carries significant diplomatic and economic risks.

Bessent said the Treasury had “mapped every node, every facilitator and every network that Iran has used to smuggle oil and evade sanctions.”

The effectiveness of the campaign will depend on whether Washington can actually shut those networks down and persuade Iran’s remaining trading partners to comply.

Iran is already facing a severe economic crisis. The question is whether Trump's new sanctions can turn that pressure into political concessions, or whether Tehran will once again find ways to survive under isolation.