There’s almost a one-in-three chance of a UK recession in the 12 months, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.

The probability of two consecutive quarters of negative growth has increased to 30%, the highest since the end of 2016, the survey of 10 economists found. That’s up from 25% a month ago. It was at 20% or lower for all of 2018.

The survey was conducted Feb. 1-6, before the Bank of England published new forecasts that see the slowest economic growth in a decade in 2019 and a slightly greater than 20% chance of a recession. Governor Mark Carney told a press conference that a no-deal Brexit would increase the probability of a contraction.

Economists put the chances of a recession at almost 50% in the immediate aftermath of 2016’s Brexit vote, but the economy continued to expand. There hasn’t been a quarterly contraction since 2012.

BOE policy makers will have further chance to explain their outlook at events in London this week. Carney discusses risks to the global economy in a speech on Tuesday, while external Monetary Policy Committee member Gertjan Vlieghe will give his thoughts about the UK on Thursday.

Economists will also have a slew of fresh UK data to consider, including:

  • Fourth-quarter GDP (Monday)
  • Inflation (Wednesday)
  • RICS house prices (Thursday)
  • Retail sales (Friday)

This story has been published from a wire agency feed without modifications to the text. Only the headline has been changed.

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