United Nations says world is ‘severely off track’ to limit global warming

The United Nations (UN) climate change organisation on Tuesday said that the world is “severely off track” to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and avoid catastrophic climate impacts.

The world was failing to act with sufficient urgency to curb greenhouse gas emissions, said the United Nations in a report released just weeks before high-stakes climate talks.

Combined commitments from nearly 200 nations would see 2030 carbon emissions fall just 2% below 2019 levels. This is far short of the 43% fall that the UN's IPCC climate panel says are needed to limit warming to the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 degrees Celsius since the preindustrial era, it added.

Later this month, international climate negotiations will start in Dubai that include the first time world negotiators will do a global stocktake on how close society is to meeting its 2015 climate goals.

"Every fraction of a degree matters, but we are severely off track. COP28 is our time to change that,” said Simon Stiell, executive secretary of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Stiell has called for climate talks in Dubai this month to mark a “clear turning point” for a world already wracked by increasing floods, heatwaves and storms. 

“COP28 must be a historic turning point in this critical decade,” said Sultan Al Jaber, president of the UN climate summit due to take place in Dubai. “There is simply no time left for delays.”

According to the analysis from the United Nations, the global average temperature will rise as much as 2.8C above pre-industrial levels this century if countries implement their emissions-cutting strategies as planned.

The carbon emissions released into the atmosphere will rise by about 9% in 2030, compared with 2010 levels, based on current national pledges submitted ahead of the upcoming COP28 climate summit, as per the UN estimates.

Stiell said the latest UN assessment shows how quickly the world is running out of time to prevent drastic temperature rises. 

“We need to rebuild trust in the Paris process,” he said. “This framework is delivering progress, but not fast enough.”