Venezuela done, Cuba next? Report says Trump team seeks govt insiders to cut a deal and oust Communist regime
The Trump administration has assessed Cuba’s economy as being close to collapse, and that the government has never been this fragile after losing a vital benefactor in Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro.
The Donald Trump administration is actively searching for government insiders within Cuba who could help broker a political deal to remove the island’s Communist leadership by the end of the year, according to a Wall Street Journal report on 21 January that frames the effort as a post-Venezuela strategic push.
Washington sees Cuba as next geopolitical battleground
Senior US officials told The Wall Street Journal that, emboldened by the ouster of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, the administration believes Cuba’s long-standing Communist regime is more vulnerable than at any time in decades and may be ripe for political transformation.
Officials cited in the report assessed that the collapse of Cuba’s key economic partner — Venezuela — has left Havana exposed, placing unusual stress on its economy.
Although there is no detailed blueprint for ending Communist rule, the US strategy being pursued involves identifying potential reform-minded figures within the Cuban government who might be willing to negotiate a transfer of power.
Trump publicly urges negotiation ‘before it is too late’
In an 11 January social media post, Trump appeared to underscore this approach, exhorting Cuban leaders to seek an agreement with the United States.
“I strongly suggest they make a deal. BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE,” Trump said, adding that there would be “NO MORE OIL OR MONEY” channelled to Cuba.
The US president’s hard-line stance follows a broader tightening of economic and diplomatic pressure on the island, including curbs on overseas medical missions — a critical source of hard currency for Havana — and visa bans on officials linked to those programmes, according to officials.
Lessons from Venezuela drive policy thinking
US officials told WSJ that the 3 January operation in Venezuela — which resulted in the capture of Maduro and the death of allied Cuban security personnel — illustrates the perceived value of engaging with insiders to effect regime change.
In Venezuela’s case, the raid was reportedly aided by an asset within the former president’s inner circle, reinforcing the administration’s belief in leveraging internal dissent or pragmatism as a catalyst for political transition.
In meetings with Cuban exile groups and civic leaders in Miami and Washington DC, US officials have reportedly focused on identifying individuals within Havana’s ruling establishment who might “see the writing on the wall” and be willing to cut a deal rather than cling to power amid mounting economic strain, one official told WSJ.
Havana under strain, but resistance remains
The Trump administration’s calculations are grounded in stark assessments of the Cuban economy, which has suffered chronic shortages, power blackouts and a decline in oil supply since Caracas reduced exports and US sanctions tightened. Analysts and residents alike have warned of deepening hardship, raising questions about the island government’s resilience.
Cuban leaders have publicly rejected US pressure. Tens of thousands of Cubans recently held a mass demonstration in Havana to denounce US actions in Venezuela and protest Washington’s tightening sanctions, with President Miguel Díaz‑Canel affirming the government’s resolve.
International responses have also emerged. On 15 January, Reuters reported that Russia criticised what it described as “blackmail and threats” against Cuba, asserting that such approaches are unacceptable and reaffirming Moscow’s support for Havana.
How Has Cuba Reacted?
Cuba’s power structure remains dominated by Raúl Castro, 94, the younger brother of Fidel, while President Miguel Díaz-Canel, 65, an unpopular apparatchik, manages day-to-day governance.
“There is no surrender or capitulation possible nor any kind of understanding based on coercion or intimidation,” Díaz-Canel said recently, speaking in military fatigues at a memorial for Cuban security personnel killed in Caracas while protecting Nicolás Maduro.
The Cuban state has long proved adept at suppressing dissent despite widespread poverty. It has faced only two major protest movements: in Havana in 1994 and nationwide demonstrations in 2021 involving tens of thousands of people. Human-rights groups estimate more than 1,000 political prisoners remain in detention.
As tensions with the US rise, Cuba held a national day of defense on Sunday. Cubans practised for a “war of all the people” to repel invaders.
Why Cuba’s natural resources matter
The island sits atop significant untapped reserves of nickel and cobalt—critical minerals essential for electric vehicle batteries, aerospace components and advanced defence systems—resources the United States increasingly seeks to secure outside Chinese supply chains.
Cuba is already one of the world’s largest producers of nickel, but decades of sanctions and underinvestment have limited large-scale extraction. In addition, its offshore waters are believed to hold oil and gas potential, while its geographic position astride key Caribbean sea lanes gives it enduring strategic value.
Intelligence assessments from the CIA also indicate that Cuba possesses a wider range of strategic resources, including iron ore, chromium, copper, salt, timber, silica and petroleum.
From a maritime perspective, Cuba occupies a position of exceptional strategic value. The island lies adjacent to the Windward Passage, a vital sea corridor linking the Atlantic approaches to the Caribbean and onward to the Panama Canal—one of the world’s most important arteries of global trade connecting the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and heavily trafficked by international shipping.