Every month, Mint’s Plain Facts gives you an update on key global data to help you thread together the biggest developments worth paying attention to. The accompanying analysis and charts explain how each story is creating ripples on the global stage, where it is headed in the coming weeks, and whether it could have an impact on India.
Ceasefire cracks
After days of relative calm, the West Asia war escalated again after the US struck Iranian military targets in response to Iran's alleged attacks on commercial oil tankers. Soon after, US President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire was "over", reviving fears that the conflict would escalate. The collapse of the ceasefire came after Brent crude had fallen to its lowest levels since the war began, hovering around $71-73 a barrel in early July. Prices then jumped 5.2% on 8 July, recording the 10th-largest one-day rise during the period of the conflict.
Global crude oil prices remain extremely sensitive to developments in West Asia, but despite the recent jump, are hovering around $75 per barrel, suggesting the world has adjusted to West Asian disruptions through a series of measures such as tempered consumption and diversification of supply destinations, especially in countries dependent on oil imports such as India. Nevertheless, the initial shock of the war is still playing out through higher input costs, with inflation showing signs of firming up around the world after a year of deflationary trends.
Policy choices
The West Asia war and its direct impact on growth and inflation dynamics has prompted central banks to adopt differing paths to address their specific issues. Largely, central banks are delaying rate cuts expected in the pre-war period and, in some cases, making fresh hikes. Over the next month, however, most central banks, from the US Federal Reserve to the Reserve Bank of India, are expected to stay put as the impact of the West Asia war continues to unfold.
The European Central Bank (ECB), which raised rates in in previous meeting, may choose to pause in its upcoming meeting before delivering another rate hike in September. The Bank of Japan (BoJ), which delivered its first rate hike since December 2025 at its previous meeting, has retained a tightening bias, saying it will continue raising rates if warranted. Going forward, a rate hike by the US Fed will be crucial and could prompt other central banks to follow suit.
Rearming Nato
With the world plunged into a series of conflicts, from Russia-Ukraine to the one in West Asia, the focus on defence preparedness has increased. Nato's defence spending has been under increased scrutiny following Trump’s push for greater participation from the US's European allies. Nato is now aiming for 3.5% of core defence spending by 2035, though many of its members have already met the target or are projected to do so by 2026. These countries include Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia and Poland, which share a land border with Russia and likely increased their spending to replenish depleted weapons stockpiles and sustain support for Ukraine.
Denmark is also close to meeting the target, having rapidly increased its spending to underscore its importance in deterring Russia in the Arctic. Core spending by the US, on the other hand, fell below 3.2% in 2025, though it was still ahead of major major European countries such as Germany (2.7%), the UK (2.6%), and France (2.2%).
Warming Europe
As climate change continues to batter the world, the rapid warming of Europe is emerging as its biggest stress signal. Western Europe experienced its hottest June on record, with average temperatures soaring 3.06°C above the 1991-2020 average. The scorching heat shattered national records across the continent, pushing temperatures over 40°C in several countries and tragically claiming thousands of lives. In Germany, more than 5,000 deaths were linked to the heatwave; in France, the toll was above 2,700.
The soaring temperatures reflect the continent's long-term warming trend, with Europe now the fastest-warming continent after the Arctic, data from Copernicus Climate Change Service (public information system funded by the European Union) showed. In 2025, annual temperature on the continent was 1.43°C above the 1991-2020 average. The higher temperature was due to cleaner skies allowing more solar heating, declining snow cover reducing Earth's reflectivity, and the continent's proximity to the rapidly warming Arctic.
Emmy battle
After briefly losing its long-held lead to Netflix in 2024, HBO re-established itself as the dominant force at the Emmy nominations in 2026. HBO bagged 122 nominations across categories, while Netflix secured the second spot with 111. Apple TV+ continued its steady rise to a record 89 nominations. Two major were responsible for HBO’s lead—medical drama The Pitt with 25 nominations, closely followed by Hacks with 24. Netflix's Beef received 16 nominations while Pluribus captured 18 for Apple TV+.
While HBO had converted its nominations lead into most wins at the 2024 Emmys, the 2025 results suggest that topping the nominations list does not always guarantee awards dominance. Despite having higher nominations than Netflix, HBO and Netflix tied with 30 wins each, followed by Apple TV+ (21). The award ceremony, scheduled to be announced on 14 September, will be closely tracked if HBO is able to convert its nominations into highest wins as well.