What if the Fed’s own forecasts are wrong?
Feds are instructed to condition their view on an optimal monetary policy, which obviously makes better outcomes achievable
The Federal Reserve’s summary of Economic Projections in September doesn’t anticipate a recession in the next three years. And Chair Jerome Powell still seems to think that a soft landing for the economy is possible. In my view, however, a US recession is highly likely in the next 12 to 18 months. Why don’t I share the Fed’s optimism?