Why Israel attacked Iran with large-scale strikes on June 13

Israel launched large-scale attacks across Iran early Friday, June 13, hitting nuclear sites and military targets. The Israel Defense Forces said dozens of air force jets "completed the first stage that included strikes on dozens of military targets, including nuclear targets, in different areas of Iran."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also released a statement, saying that “moments ago, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a targeted military operation to roll back the Iranian threat to Israel's very survival.”

He said Israel struck at the heart of "Iran’s nuclear enrichment programme", Iran’s "nuclear weaponisation programme" and the country's “ballistic missile programme”. He said Israeli forces “targeted Iran’s main enrichment facility”, adding that "we targeted Iran’s leading nuclear scientists working on the uranium bomb."

Enrichment can produce uranium for reactor fuel or, at higher refinement levels, atomic bombs.

But why exactly did Israel attack Iran this time?

Israel sees a nuclear-armed Iran as an existential threat, and breaking Iran's regional network of militant proxy groups has been a major goal. The tensions between Israel and Iran increased since the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 and as war raged in Gaza.

In a seven-minute video, Netanyahu accused Iran of backing up their "genocidal rhetoric" with a programme to develop nuclear weapons. 

He said that in recent years, Iran has produced enough highly-enriched uranium for nine atom bombs.

Netanyahu warned that if not stopped, Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time. "It could be in a year, it could be within a few months – it could be less than a year," he said.

“This is a clear and present danger to Israel’s very survival," Netanyahu underscored, adding that last year, Iran had fired 300 ballistic missiles at Israel.

Netanyahu vowed that he "will not let the world’s most dangerous regime get the world’s most dangerous weapons." He warned of "nuclear terrorism", alleging that “Iran plans to give those weapons, nuclear weapons, to its terrorist proxies.”

'Three-pronged' threat from Iran

Israeli army spokesman Brigadier General Effie Defrin told AFP that Israel saw a three-pronged threat from Iran. Firstly, Iran was "rushing toward a nuclear bomb", he said.

"We are now revealing for the first time, based on intelligence, that the Iranian regime has established a secret programme. As part of this programme, senior nuclear scientists in Iran secretly conducted experiments to advance all the necessary components for building a nuclear weapon," said Defrin.

"This is unequivocal proof that the Iranian regime is working to acquire nuclear weapons in the near future," he was quoted as saying.

Defrin said the second part of the threat involved Iran building thousands of ballistic missiles "with plans to double and triple them".

"The third component: the Iranian regime continues to arm, fund and direct its proxies across the Middle East against the State of Israel," the Israeli army spokesman said. "Our operation's goal is to eliminate the threat," he said.

Iran's nuclear programme

Iran's secret nuclear programme was revealed in 2002, raising suspicions that it was used to develop a nuclear bomb or a weapon. The country has significantly ramped up its nuclear programme in recent years.

As of May 17, Iran's total enriched uranium stockpile was estimated at 9,247.6 kilogrammes — or more than 45 times the limit set out in the 2015 deal — according to the latest report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Under a landmark 2015 deal with six world powers, Iran agreed to limit its nuclear activities and allow continuous and robust monitoring by the IAEA's inspectors in return for relief from crippling economic sanctions.

Among its stockpiles, Iran has an estimated 408.6 kilogrammes enriched to up to 60 per cent — just a short step from the 90 per cent needed for a nuclear warhead, according to AFP news agency.

Theoretically, Iran now has enough near-weapons-grade material, if further refined, for about 10 nuclear bombs, according to the definition by the Vienna-based IAEA.

But Iran has always denied any ambition to develop nuclear weapons.

While Iran maintained that its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes only, the IAEA chief, Rafael Mariano Grossi, warned that Tehran has enough uranium enriched to near-weapons-grade levels to make “several” nuclear bombs if it chose to do so.

Iran in breach of non-proliferation obligations

The International Atomic Energy Agency's Board of Governors declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in almost 20 years, raising the prospect of reporting it to the UN Security Council.

According to Reuters, Iran says that its programme is entirely civilian and that it has the right to enrich uranium. Iran insists it has maintained its nuclear programme for peaceful purposes only. However, Washington and its allies say Iran has consistently hidden important elements of its programme and believe it wants to build a nuclear bomb.

US-Iran talks

US and Iranian officials were scheduled to hold a sixth round of talks on Tehran's escalating uranium enrichment programme in Oman on Sunday.

Notably, Donald Trump pulled the US out of a previous nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers in 2018, and reinstated economic sanctions. This angered Iran.

The US president recently warned of military action if the talks do not succeed.

However, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had pledged to continue enrichment on Iranian soil.

(With inputs from AFP, Reuters, Associated Press)