Why this could be the year Warren Buffett gives away $1 million

Warren Buffett, chairman and chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, has been trying for nearly a decade to give away $1 million in the conglomerate’s annual bracket contest for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament.

But employees across Berkshire’s roster of companies—from BNSF Railway to insurer Geico to See’s Candies—keep throwing up bricks.

Now Buffett, who steered Berkshire’s growth from a struggling textile maker to a sprawling empire with a $1 trillion market value, is trying to improve their odds by making the prize easier to win. Last year, about 65,000 of Berkshire’s nearly 400,000 employees participated.

“I’m getting older," the famed stock picker, who is 94, told The Wall Street Journal. “I want to give away a million dollars to somebody while I’m still around as chairman."

Buffett is no stranger to assessing long odds. From stock picking to insurance, his ability to evaluate uncertainty has fueled Berkshire’s rise. Buffett made billions of dollars betting on Apple when few realized the iPhone maker’s potential. Berkshire’s insurance operations, meanwhile, earn money by considering the risks of everything from auto accidents to hurricanes.

In the thorny realm of March Madness probabilities, Buffett has tried to inch his way toward an outcome insurers typically prefer to avoid—paying out.

“You’d like to think one of them had a chance of winning every four years," Buffett said. “That’s what we’ve been kind of fumbling our way toward."

This year, the $1 million prize will be awarded if an entrant correctly picks the winners of at least 30 of the tournament’s 32 first-round games, scheduled for Thursday and Friday. The person with the most correct games would win, with tiebreakers available if needed. In that case, runners up would get $100,000 each.

Last year, entrants got a free pass on the eight games played by heavily favored No. 1 and No. 2 seeded teams, but otherwise had to call the first round perfectly.

If the $1 million remains unclaimed, a $250,000 consolation prize will go to whomever selects the most winners of the tournament’s 63 matchups. But Buffett would like to see the bigger payout: “Just think of the excitement it would create all over the place if somebody gets a million instead."

“I hope it’s this year," he said. “We made it easier this year than ever."

A big win could happen. In 2017, at least five entrants predicted the winners of 31 of the 32 games. That year, contestants had to go 32-for-32 to take home $1 million.

Dwayne Johnson, then a steelworker at Precision Castparts, won $100,000 from Berkshire for correctly picking the winners of the first 29 games before getting one wrong. Under this year’s rules, Johnson’s performance would have won $1 million.

Reached by phone, Johnson, a 44-year-old West Virginia resident who is currently looking for work, recalled that Buffett called to congratulate him. He found the billionaire CEO to be “just a really nice guy, really personable."

Johnson admitted it was painful to learn from a Journal reporter how much bigger his prize would have been under Berkshire’s 2025 contest rules.

“Oh, that’s a dagger to the heart. That hurts," he said. “My next question would be: Is that retroactive, Warren?"

Told of Johnson’s query, Buffett laughed, then invited him to submit a bracket this year. Johnson said he plans to do so.

As for his own bracket, Buffett said he may ask his executive assistant to fill it out. He doesn’t pay much attention to sports these days. “I try and pay attention to stocks," he quipped.

Berkshire also offers what it calls the “lollapalooza" prize: $1 million a year for life if a single entrant correctly predicts the winners of each of the first 48 games ahead of the tournament’s Sweet 16 round.

The stakes also rise if one of the tournament teams from Berkshire’s home state of Nebraska—Creighton University or the University of Nebraska Omaha—were to reach the championship game. In that case, Omaha-based Berkshire would double the winner’s haul.

How likely is it that a Berkshire employee will snag the prize?

In 2019, one in every 3,080 brackets in the NCAA’s official bracket contest correctly chose at least 30 of the 32 first-round games. In 2021, a tournament marked by upsets, only one in every 1,578,469 brackets did that well.

In 2021, only one in every 1,578,469 brackets in the NCAA’s official contest picked at least 30 of the 32 first-round games.

Winning $1 million a year, meanwhile, is an exceedingly long shot. The NCAA says that of the more than 150 million verifiable online brackets it has tracked since 2016, only one has correctly picked the first 48 games.

At Berkshire, bracket enthusiasts are making their selections.

Brad Rosen, vice president and counsel at Berkshire’s reinsurance division, took care of setting up a website where the company collects entries and employees can track the brackets in the running for a big prize. Rosen posts updates and commentary—even though he hasn’t watched a basketball game during his years doing so.

“For me, it really is about the contest and the vicarious enjoyment of other people who love sports," Rosen said.

One of those people is Eric Waters, enterprise assets services manager at Oriental Trading in Omaha. Waters, a college basketball fan, has entered Berkshire’s contest each year.

“Warren’s money is safe," Waters said. But “as long as he puts it out there, I’m going to participate and have a little bit of hope."

Britt Stokes, director of marketing at Acme Brick in Fort Worth, Texas, said he thinks the chances of landing one of the big prizes are “like winning the lotto." But the bracket contest has an added social benefit.

“What I live for is the trash talking around the office," he said.

Write to Karen Langley at karen.langley@wsj.com