Why US-Iran's Islamabad talks failed? Will Trump go back to war with Tehran now? Explained

US -Iran Ceasefire Talks: After nearly a full day of intense negotiations, talks between Iran and the United States have collapsed without agreement. US Vice President JD Vance left Islamabad on Sunday without a peace deal after 21 hours of the most significant direct negotiations between the United States and Iran in over a decade, saying Tehran had refused to make a long-term commitment to abandon its nuclear weapons ambitions.

Why Did the Islamabad Ceasefire Talks Fail?

At the heart of the impasse lies a fundamental disagreement over Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

JD Vance declined to relitigate 21 hours of private negotiations on a public podium, but he was unsparing about the core reason the talks collapsed: Iran would not commit to permanently forswearing nuclear weapons.

"The simple fact is that we need to see an affirmative commitment that they will not seek a nuclear weapon and they will not seek the tools that would enable them to quickly achieve a nuclear weapon," he said, describing it as "the core goal of the President" and the central objective Washington had pursued throughout the negotiations.

Vance posed the question plainly and answered it himself. “The simple question is, do we see a fundamental commitment of will for the Iranians not to develop a nuclear weapon, not just now, not just two years from now, but for the long term? We haven't seen that yet. We hope that we will.”

He added that Iran's existing enrichment infrastructure had in any case already been destroyed by force. "Their nuclear programmes, such as it is, the enrichment facilities that they had before, they've been destroyed," he said. The problem, from Washington's perspective, was not capability but intent — and Tehran refused to address the latter.

What Were the Points of Contention Between US and Iran?

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei confirmed on Saturday that the 21-hour discussions covered a wide range of issues: the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's nuclear programme, war reparations, sanctions relief, and the end of hostilities.

According to Iranian officials, discussions covered:

• The Strait of Hormuz
• Iran’s nuclear programme
• War reparations
• Sanctions relief
• The formal end of hostilities

Washington DC's demands, outlined in a 15-point proposal, centred on restricting Iran's nuclear programme and reopening the strait. Tehran's 10-point counter-proposal sought guaranteed cessation of the war, Iranian control over the strait, compensation for damage caused by US-Israeli strikes, and the release of frozen Iranian assets.

When asked whether Iranian frozen assets were discussed, JD Vance confirmed they were, along with much else, but said the fundamental obstacle remained unchanged. "We just could not get to a situation where the Iranians were willing to accept our terms," he said.

Iran's state broadcaster IRIB placed the blame squarely on Washington DC. "The Iranian delegation negotiated continuously and intensively for 21 hours in order to protect the national interests of the Iranian people; despite various initiatives from the Iranian delegation, the unreasonable demands of the American side prevented the progress of the negotiations. Thus the negotiations ended," IRIB said on Telegram.

Vance: "Quite Flexible, Quite Accommodating"

From Washington DC’s perspective, the talks ended because Iran refused to accept clearly defined terms.

The US vice president pushed back firmly against any suggestion that Washington DC had been inflexible. He said the US delegation had arrived in good faith, at Trump's explicit instruction, to make every possible effort to reach a deal. "We did that," he said, describing the American team as "quite flexible, quite accommodating."

He also made clear that Washington had laid out its position with precision. "We've made very clear what our red lines are, what things we're willing to accommodate them on, and what things we're not willing to accommodate them on, and we made that as clear as we possibly could, and they have chosen not to accept our terms," Vance said.

Iran Believes It Is Winning, and Can Wait Washington Out

Behind Tehran's reported refusal to bend on nuclear red lines lies a strategic calculation, according to analysts tracking the talks closely. Iranian officials argued that Washington DC’s expectations- particularly on nuclear restrictions and regional control- made a deal impossible.

Official aware of the developments told media houses that the negotiating team suggested the US was unwilling to adjust its position despite battlefield realities.

CNN National Security Analyst Alex Plitsas argued that Iran's posture reflects a belief that time is on its side. "We won't see a change in behavior until we see a change in perception," he posted on X.

Am official close to the Iranian negotiating team told Fars News that Tehran saw the talks differently from the outset. "The Americans needed talks only to restore their lost international image and refused to lower expectations despite battlefield defeats against Iran," the source said. “Iran's team defended the achievements of the field.”

On the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran's position was equally unyielding. An informed source told IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency that there would be no change in the situation in the strait unless the US agreed to a "reasonable deal." Iran, the source made plain, saw no reason to offer that concession for free.

Iran Says It Has No Plans for Another Round of Talks

Perhaps the most significant signal to emerge from the Iranian side after the Islamabad talks concluded was the absence of any appetite for a swift resumption.

An official to the Iranian negotiating team told Fars News that Iran has no plans for a next round of negotiations with the US. If accurate, that leaves Washington DC's "final and best offer" sitting on a table with no one to receive it.

Iran's Foreign Ministry, however, offered a marginally more diplomatic note. Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said the path of diplomacy had not been closed, a statement that keeps a door technically ajar without committing to walking through it.

Will Trump Go Back to War With Iran?

It is the question that hung unspoken over the entire Islamabad process — and when a reporter put it directly to JD Vance as he prepared to leave, he walked out without answering.

Trump himself, asked ahead of the talks about a backup plan should negotiations collapse or Iran refuse to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, dismissed the premise entirely. "You don't need a backup plan. Their military is defeated. We have integrated everything. They have very few missiles. They have very few manufacturing capabilities. We have hit them very hard. Our military is amazing; the job they have done," he told reporters on Friday.

The two-week ceasefire US president Donald Trump announced remains nominally in place, but with no deal signed, no next round of talks scheduled, the Strait of Hormuz blocked, and Iran signalling it sees little reason to return to the table on Washington's terms, the window is narrowing.