Will UK election impact visa and immigration policies? Expert says, ‘tone likely to get hostile and toxic if…’

In the upcoming British general election on July 4th, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party are expected to face a strong challenge from the Labour Party, led by Sir Keir Starmer. Immigration has emerged as a key issue in this year's campaign, with both major parties pledging to reduce net migration, which has reached record levels over the past two years.

Yash Dubal, Director & a Senior Immigration Associate at A Y & J Solicitors, London, United Kingdom explains how elections are likely to affect the UK visa policies. 

With the change of Government, will there be any impact on those who are or will be considering migrating to the UK to live and work?

Dubal says, in the new Government, the tone of the debate around immigration in the UK will change. Under the Conservative Party, the language around immigration became hostile and toxic. Many potential working migrants looking at the UK as an option were concerned by what they saw and chose to relocate to other more welcoming nations, such as the USA or Canada. 

The truth is that while restrictions have been put in place on some visa routes, Britain still provides many options for those with the right skills who want to move there to work. 

Other measure by the new Government could potentially mean a cap on numbers, or further refinement of the Immigration Salary List (ISL), which was introduced earlier this year to replace the Shortage Occupation List.

The new Government may strengthen the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC), which is the independent body that advises the government on immigration policy.  MAC recently recommended keeping the Graduate visa route following a commissioned review, so it is likely this will remain, which means employers, will still be able to employ overseas graduates without having to meet salary thresholds. The Government may also propose a crackdown on employers and recruitment agencies who abuse the immigration system or to ban those found flouting the rules from hiring workers from abroad.

What does it mean for Indian workers?

This is not as impactful as it appears for Indian workers, Dubal says. 
The first reason is the assumption that there is an untapped vein of British workers who are ready to step in, get trained up and fill the roles currently being taken by migrant workers. 

Secondly, if there is an army of potential health care workers and builders, they will take time to be skilled up. For instance, on average it takes a minimum of three years to train as a nurse and a minimum of two years to train as an electrician. In the meantime, Indian workers are free to take those roles.

According to a recent report from education think tank Edge Foundation, the number of skills shortage vacancies in the UK doubled between 2017 and 2022 to 531,200. There is no reason to assume that the figure has not risen since. Skill-shortage vacancies were most prevalent in Health and Social Work, Business Services, and Wholesale and Retail, with Construction, Information and Communications, and Manufacturing sectors exhibiting higher proportions of skill-shortage vacancies relative to overall vacancies.

“All these sectors need workers with the right skills now, and with the exception of wholesale and retail sectors, they all require a level of training, much of which will be multi-year,” Dubal concludes