Best of the Week: Why a US power play in Caracas matters to India’s oil calculus

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The dramatic US intervention in Venezuela has thrown up an uncomfortable mix of hope and anxiety for New Delhi. On paper, a possible easing of American sanctions could finally unlock India’s long-stuck energy investments and nearly $600 million in unpaid dividends. In reality, the immediate picture is far messier.

India’s state-run oil firms had poured about $2.5 billion into Venezuela before US sanctions tightened in 2020. Back then, India was among the biggest buyers of Venezuelan heavy crude, importing over 400,000 barrels a day at peak levels. Sanctions not only choked production at fields where Indian companies hold stakes but also froze dividend payouts and blocked alternative arrangements such as oil-for-payment deals.

Now, with President Nicolás Maduro captured in a sudden US strike, markets are bracing for volatility. Analysts warn that years of curbs have left Venezuela’s oil infrastructure battered, while hyperinflation and political uncertainty could delay any meaningful recovery. Even if sanctions are eased, it may take some time before Venezuelan oil flows reliably again.

For India, which imports nearly 88% of its crude and spends a quarter of its import bill on oil, the stakes are high. A $1 rise in crude prices can inflate the annual import bill by ₹13,000 crore. Yet experts believe the immediate impact will be limited, given Venezuela’s low current production and India’s sharply reduced trade with the country.

In the longer run, though, a stable transition in Caracas could quietly strengthen India’s energy security—if the chaos settles before the opportunity slips away. Dive deeper into this detailed story by Rituraj Baruah and Dhirendra Kumar to understand what the US-Venezuela conflict means for India and Indians.

On to the best of Mint’s journalism from this week:

Grok, consent and the limits of innovation

AI is supposed to make life easier, but what happens when it makes life unsafe? That’s the uncomfortable question raised after Elon Musk-owned Grok AI was allegedly used on X to generate sexually explicit, morphed images of women without consent. After user complaints mounted, India’s IT ministry stepped in on 2 January, asking X to take down such content within 72 hours and explain what went wrong. At the heart of this episode lies a bigger dilemma. As AI tools grow more powerful, do platform safeguards keep pace? Is tweaking filters enough when users can game the system? And who bears responsibility—the tech, the platform, or the people misusing it?

Can India’s cities finally learn to pay their own bills?

India’s cities are bursting at the seams, but their balance sheets tell a very different story. With most urban local bodies still dependent on state and central grants, the government is now working on a budget-time reset. One that nudges municipalities to stand on their own feet. The blueprint, likely to be unveiled in the Union budget, pushes cities to strengthen what they already control: property taxes, user charges and, crucially, market borrowing through municipal and green bonds. A few cities have shown the way. There’s also a nudge towards innovation. From peer-to-peer mentoring between strong and weak civic bodies to allowing municipalities to offer consultancy and training services, the idea is to turn city halls into revenue generators, not just service providers. But will autonomy work without capacity?

Why silver is no longer just gold’s cheaper sibling

Silver has always had a special place in Indian homes, but mostly as jewellery, gifts or second-best to gold. That perception is quietly changing. Today, silver is no longer just ornamental; it’s becoming a serious asset. Why? Because it now sits at a rare crossroads—part safe haven, part industrial workhorse, part financial investment. Demand is surging from two powerful engines, retail investors piling into silver ETFs and industries like solar power, EVs and data centres that simply can’t function without it. Add tight global supply and rising geopolitical uncertainty, and silver’s price surge suddenly makes sense.

AI changed consulting—but not its appetite for talent

For a while, it looked like AI was shrinking consulting teams. Yet, step onto IIM campuses this year, and the mood tells a different story. Consulting firms are back—hiring in bulk, offering higher pay, and chasing students with skills that mix strategy with AI fluency. What changed? As global firms move complex, tech-heavy work to India, they need talent that can think, adapt and lead alongside machines. That’s why consulting offers at some IIMs are up nearly 60%, even as layoffs grab headlines elsewhere.

Here’s why Venezuela didn’t tip the oil balance

You’d think seizing Venezuela’s oil heartland would send crude prices tumbling, but markets barely budged. That’s because Venezuela’s oil reality doesn’t match the headlines. Despite holding the world’s largest reserves, output has slumped to under 1 million bpd due to years of underinvestment and crumbling infrastructure, meaning even a regime change won’t instantly unleash barrels. When markets reopened after US forces captured President Maduro, Brent stayed around $60 a barrel, a whisper of a spike, then back down. Traders know Venezuela’s crude won’t hit global supply soon, and Opec+ isn’t rushing to cut output either. For India, that means no immediate price relief or disruption—but potentially a longer-term strategic opportunity if Venezuelan crude ever flows again to global buyers, including Indian refiners.

India’s loneliness economy is turning strangers into communities

Across urban India, curated stranger meetups, supper clubs, and retreats are quietly becoming big business. As migration, remote work, and nuclear families reshape social lives, many urban Indians are finding themselves connected online but isolated offline. In response, founders are building paid, small-format gatherings centred on deep conversation, safety, and intent rather than networking or dating. From Bengaluru living-room discussions to Goa retreats and audio-first platforms for smaller towns, loneliness is being acknowledged as a shared condition and monetized thoughtfully. These ventures slow things down, prioritize trust and presence, and reveal how connection itself is emerging as a new urban economy.

India’s new airlines are a flight risk before they can fly

A late-December social media post by civil aviation minister K. Ram Mohan Naidu raised hopes of fresh competition in India’s skies, naming Shankh Air, Alhind Air, and FlyExpress as new aspirants. But a closer look suggests the optimism may be premature. Of the three, only FlyExpress received its no-objection certificate in December. Shankh Air and Alhind Air were cleared earlier, contradicting the impression of rapid momentum. This matters because the update landed amid anxiety over a near-duopoly, after flight cancellations exposed the fragility of India’s aviation system. Mint’s review shows uneven fundamentals. In a sector littered with failed startups, clearances alone do not guarantee credible competition.

Tax shortfall tests budget arithmetic, but fiscal cushion holds

As the Union budget nears, the Centre is facing a likely ₹1.5-2 trillion tax shortfall in FY26, as slower nominal GDP growth, weak corporate tax collections and underpriced GST cuts drag revenues. Tax receipts rose just 3.3% in April-November, far below the budgeted 10.8%. Still, the fiscal picture is steadier than it appears. Non-tax revenues have cushioned the blow, with the RBI and PSU dividends already beating annual targets, while disinvestment receipts have improved. Upward GDP revisions also help the deficit math. Economists expect the Centre to broadly meet the 4.4% deficit target, with only limited slippage.

LIC Mutual Fund’s trillion-rupee ambition faces a performance test

LIC Mutual Fund has set itself an ambitious target of reaching ₹1 trillion in assets, despite managing just ₹44,383 crore after 36 years in business. The insurer plans to lean on LIC’s vast network of 1.48 million agents, expand its branch footprint, and bolster its fund management team to accelerate growth. But market experts say scale will remain elusive unless performance improves. LIC MF’s biggest equity schemes have consistently underperformed their benchmarks, leaving them in the middle or bottom of category rankings. Without sustained returns, analysts argue, wider distribution alone will struggle to attract long-term investor money.

India’s smaller states fuel the next wave of market investors

India’s equity markets are broadening beyond traditional hubs, with investor participation rising sharply in smaller and underrepresented states since the pandemic. Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland and Meghalaya have seen investor counts jump 7 to 12 times since 2020, albeit from a low base, driven by digital access, financial literacy efforts and easier onboarding. Faster growth is also visible across other northeastern states and Union territories. While Maharashtra and Gujarat still dominate in absolute numbers, growth there has slowed. IPO buzz, regional outreach and cash equity participation are pulling first-time investors from tier-2 and tier-3 towns into capital markets.

That's all for this week. I hope you have a pleasant weekend!

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Best,

Shravani Sinha

Senior Correspondent