Climate Change & You is a fortnightly newsletter written by Bibek Bhattacharya and Sayantan Bera. Subscribe to Mint’s newsletters to get them directly in your inbox.
How much nations consume, and how extravagantly, has a direct impact on the health of the planet, via what is known as the carbon footprint of consumption. The problem is that consumption is crucial to economic growth and job sustainability. Statesmen, therefore, call for austerity only in extreme situations. The world is in one now due to the war in West Asia that has upended energy markets and disrupted the supply of many related commodities.
So, it’s not surprising that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has appealed to Indians to curtail consumption of certain products, primarily imported fuels and gold, as well as some behaviour change, such as avoiding foreign holidays (to save on forex since the current account deficit is widening) and using more public transport and electric vehicles.
Two of these austerity measures are unusual. PM Modi has appealed to farmers to reduce the use of imported fertilisers by up to 50%. Though farmers tend to overuse heavily subsidised fertilisers like urea, any sharp reduction in fertiliser application can severely impact crop yields. A transition to natural and organic farming can work when it happens gradually over several years, rather than suddenly. This year, a below normal monsoon is likely to keep a lid on fertiliser use.
Another suggestion is to reduce cooking oil use by at least 10%. That’s because global edible oil prices are rising—producer countries are diverting their supplies (like palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia) to make biofuels as a replacement of expensive petrol and diesel. Now, India imports nearly 60% of its cooking oils. That has a direct bearing on its current account deficit.
So far so good. The irony is that India is also pushing its farmers to grow biofuel crops like maize, sugarcane, and rice (for blending into petrol), and in some states farmers are replacing oilseeds and pulses with these crops. So, while ethanol blending in transport fuels is saving India some forex spent on imported crude (and lowering emissions on the road), on the flip side, it is deepening the dependency on imported cooking oils and pulses. In fact, the country spent nearly $23 billion to import pulses and oilseeds in FY25.
If Indian farmers grew more pulses and oilseeds (and less of carb-rich foods like rice and maize), it can lower their dependence on imported fertilisers and conserve depleting resources like water. That could be another green transition strategy.
STATE OF THE CLIMATE
Recent research shows that the Amazon rainforest is nearing a critical tipping point caused by the dual pressures of global warming and deforestation. Even without additional forest clearing, the Amazon rainforest—often called the “lungs of the earth”—could lose stability if global temperatures rise by 3.7–4.0°C. However, if deforestation increases to 22–28%, the threshold drops sharply to just 1.5–1.9°C. Under these conditions, 62–77% of the basin risks transitioning into a degraded ecosystem.
The instability occurs because the forest generates up to half of its own rainfall through a process called moisture recycling. When trees are removed, this cycle is broken, triggering cascading droughts that impact regions hundreds or thousands of kilometres away. Currently, about 17–18% of the Amazon rainforest has already been lost, pushing the system closer to these critical limits. To avoid a large-scale collapse, researchers stress the urgent need to limit global warming to 1.5°C, end deforestation entirely, and take up ecological restoration to bolster the forest’s natural resilience.
“The Amazon rainforest has played a vital role in stabilising the Earth system as a carbon sink, regulator of moisture recycling and host of earth’s richest biodiversity on land,” said Johan Rockström, who co-authored the study. But continued deforestation, according to Rockström, is undermining this stability, pushing the forest closer to a tipping point. “This would not only be devastating for the region, but could also have far-reaching consequences for the entire planet.”
THE NEWS IN BRIEF
A day after PM Modi called for reduction in fuel use, economists said that agriculture was a prime sector to scale back diesel consumption.
India will host the first global big cat summit in June.
India’s fertiliser subsidy reaches ₹2.17 trillion in FY26 due to the West Asia war, and may rise by a fifth in FY27.
What India’s ethanol push means for carmakers and buyers.
India’s clean energy future hinges on access to critical minerals, writes Soumya Sarkar in Mint Opinion.
KNOW YOUR JARGON
AMOC
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, functions as a massive oceanic conveyor belt, transporting warm, saline surface water from the tropics toward the North Atlantic. As it reaches colder regions, this water cools, becomes denser, and sinks, travelling back south in a continuous loop that regulates global temperatures. However, rising global temperatures are melting Arctic ice, flooding the North Atlantic with buoyant fresh water that prevents sinking and slows the entire system. Recent research suggests the AMOC could weaken considerably by 2100, potentially reaching an irreversible “tipping point”.
For India, a failing AMOC is a direct threat to the summer monsoon, which sustains the country’s agriculture and water security. As circulation slows, less heat is transported to the northern hemisphere, causing the earth’s tropical rain belt to shift southward, away from the Indian subcontinent. This relocation, combined with weakened wind systems over the Arabian Sea, prevents moisture from reaching the region. Consequently, India may face shorter rainy seasons and prolonged dry spells.
Furthermore, a disrupted AMOC is expected to make El Niño events more extreme and unpredictable, further suppressing rainfall and trapping the region between severe droughts and erratic floods. This interconnected oceanic breakdown transforms a distant Atlantic phenomenon into a localised economic and food security crisis for hundreds of millions of people.
PRIME NUMBER
0
On 1 May, India’s electricity prices on the energy exchange dropped to zero for the first time. This historic event occurred during two 15-minute blocks when a massive surge in power supply coincided with a sudden dip in demand. The price crash was primarily driven by record-breaking solar generation, which reached approximately 57.5 GW. Simultaneously, demand fell due to cooler weather, including rain and gusty winds across northern and eastern parts of the country, which reduced the need for cooling. Additionally, industrial demand was lower than usual because of the Labour Day holiday.
And because traditional thermal power plants are ‘inflexible’ and cannot be shut down quickly, they continued to produce electricity even as solar supply peaked.
A zero-priced power may seem like a benefit, but experts warn it highlights a significant challenge for grid balancing. As India pursues its goal of 500 GW of non-fossil capacity by 2030, these incidents underscore the urgent need for battery storage systems. Storing excess daytime solar energy for use during evening peak hours would stabilise the grid and protect investor interests. The government is trying to address this by incentivising battery manufacturing and mandating battery integration for new renewable projects.
MOVIE OF THE MONTH
David Attenborough, the renowned broadcaster and naturalist, turned 100 last week. In the late 1930s, while scouring rocks in the English countryside, he discovered a 200-million-year-old fossil, which, he said, was a life-altering moment.
In 1979, Attenborough released ‘Life on Earth’ on the BBC, an account of millions of years of planetary history. This 13-part series is regarded as a pivotal event which revolutionised nature storytelling.
That’s all, for now. Bibek Bhattacharya will be back with the next issue in a fortnight.