Climate Change and You: The true cost of ethanol blending

Dear reader,

If you own a petrol vehicle, you must be aware by now that the fuel you use is a blend. A fifth of the fuel is actually ethanol produced from grains like maize and rice, as well as from sugarcane. The blending programme has helped India reduce emissions on the road and the fuel import bill. But it is also reshaping the farm. Farmers are planting more grains and sugarcane, driven by the prospect of a ready market and better prices. For a long time, farmers have been losing interest in pulses and oilseeds due to low productivity and paltry returns. Ethanol blending is accentuating this process, potentially leading to greater reliance on imports of pulses and oilseeds.

The Economic Survey 2025-26 highlighted this emerging tension between ‘atmanirbharta (self-sufficiency) in energy and atmanirbharta in food'. As the ethanol programme matures, there is a strong case for developing a comprehensive road map that takes a holistic view of energy and food security, the survey said.

Vehicle users have complained that ethanol-blended fuel results in lower mileage and more wear and tear in non-compliant vehicles. But the farm rejig is more worrying: Growing more water-intensive crops, which also need more chemical fertilizers imposes an indirect cost on the environment. The true cost of the blending programme, therefore, requires careful analysis.

Ethanol manufacturers are pushing for a higher blending ratio (currently around 20%) as they have created excess production capacity. Their margins now face another threat: The import of an animal feed known as DDGS (distillers dried grains with solubles) under the recent India-US interim trade agreement. DDGS is a by-product of ethanol production, and as imports begin to flow in, Indian ethanol manufacturers may see their profitability erode. Farmers, too, may see a dip in corn and soybean prices (a competing source of animal feed). As of now, there are many unknowns. But if you’re buying a new car, make sure the engine is compatible with higher ethanol blends.

STATE OF THE CLIMATE

Here’s some good news. China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have been flat or falling for 21 months, beginning in March 2024, according to a new analysis. For China, the world’s largest emitter of CO2, emissions fell in all major sectors, including transport, power, cement, and metals, but rose in the chemicals industry. If China had indeed reached its peak emissions ahead of the official target date in 2030 (we don’t know for sure, as emissions can also increase in the coming years), it would help reduce global emissions.

In the power sector, China’s largest emitter, electricity demand grew by 520 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2025. But increased generation from solar, wind, and nuclear—some 530TWh—met all of the growth in demand. China’s energy storage capacity also increased by 75GW year-on-year in 2025, while peak demand increased only by 55GW. The growth in energy storage means China could have an alternative route to meet peak demand without relying on increased fossil fuel-based capacity.

THE NEWS IN BRIEF

• The Indian government has stepped in to resolve the green power quagmire of surplus production and insufficient transmission, following sweeping production cuts at solar and wind farms.
• India announced a ₹1 trillion Urban Challenge Fund to build resilient, climate-responsive cities.
• The Donald Trump administration in the US has revoked the bedrock scientific basis that gives his government the ability to regulate climate-heating pollution.
• India’s port and logistical infrastructure is out of step with the demands of climate-resilient trade, writes Soumya Sarkar in Mint Opinion.
• South Australia is proving to the world that relying on wind and solar energy with battery backup is incredibly cheap.
• Why are Indian cities barely livable?

KNOW YOUR JARGON

Greenlash

Greenlash is the pushback or backlash against climate action and environmental policies, especially when people feel those policies are too costly, inconvenient, unfair, or imposed from the top. The term was popularised by Italian political scientist Nathalie Tocci, who used it in an opinion piece in 2023.

There are ample examples of greenlash across countries. In India, automobile users have been vocal in opposing the blending of ethanol, a biofuel, with petrol (which helps lower emissions on the road), complaining that this reduces vehicle life and fuel efficiency. In the European Union, governments' policies to decarbonise sectors such as road transport, buildings, and agriculture led to a greenlash. In the US, Trump's return as President in early 2025 made greenlash an official policy stance.

PRIME NUMBER

14

Agriculture, including the crop and animal husbandry subsectors, accounts for about 14% of India’s overall greenhouse gas emissions. A bulk of these come from methane emissions from livestock and rice farming, with the rest contributed by soil-related emissions from the use of chemical fertilizers, and energy used for land preparation and pumping of groundwater. However, a new report by Niti Aayog estimates that India could reduce farm-sector emissions by a quarter by 2070 (the country's Net Zero target year) without endangering food security.

The proposed strategies include shifting away from water-intensive rice towards pulses, millets, and horticultural crops, complemented by a transition away from cereal-heavy diets. Another significant pathway will be to target bringing a quarter of farm land under natural, chemical-free farming. On the livestock side, India will have to improve cattle productivity through breed improvement, better nutrition and increase overall feed efficiency.

The report recommended coordinated policy action across land, energy, and water systems. The authors underlined that isolated interventions, such as solar irrigation without groundwater governance or electrification without subsidy reform, may not yield results. On energy transition strategies for the farm, the report said that simply substituting diesel and grid-connected pumps with solar pumps may lower emissions but will not curb total energy demand, as irrigation volumes and groundwater dependence continue to rise. An efficiency-first, per-drop-more crop strategy will be necessary.

MOVIE OF THE MONTH

The film Train Dreams by Clint Bentley (available on Netflix) is a moving reminder that humans are part of nature, not its masters. The film presents forests, rivers, mountains, and wildlife as powerful, almost spiritual beings. The protagonist, a logger chopping ancient trees for the construction of railroads and bridges, is deeply connected to the natural world. Nature is not just a backdrop: It influences his emotions, survival, and sense of belonging. Ultimately, when tragedy strikes in the shape of a forest fire, it’s nature which heals quietly.

That's all, for now. Bibek Bhattacharya will be back with the next issue in a fortnight.