Dear reader,
The four-month-long monsoon season is over. The seasonal rainfall deficit is 13% of the long-period, or 50-year-average. That may not sound alarming, but it will be the widest deficit in more than a decade. The monsoon this year has been truly wayward. Several states like Maharashtra, Assam and Bihar witnessed both devastating floods and droughts at different points in time.
Come to think of it, over 300 have died in different states from excess rains and floods, while over 40% of India’s area witnessed deficit rains of 20% or more compared to normal. With an El Niño still gaining strength in the Pacific and moving into uncharted territory, the worst is yet to arrive. Prices of grocery items like rice, sugar and cooking oils are already on the rise. India’s controversial ethanol blending policy is facing a supply risk as production of feedstock crops such as maize and sugarcane is likely to be affected. The food-fuel trade off can singe the poultry sector which uses maize as a primary feed ingredient (maize is also the primary feedstock to make ethanol used for blending in petrol).
The upcoming winter crop season is under threat due to soil moisture stress and lower-than-usual water storage levels in reservoirs. Meanwhile, power demand is soaring. India may be staring at a searing heat wave next year, worse than in previous years, and water shortages in parts of the country, as the El Niño is expected to run into the early summer of 2027.
State of the climate
A new report from the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago warns that the ongoing ‘super’ El Niño will push global land temperatures around 1.2°C above normal. That means 44% more extreme heat days than in a typical year. The researchers termed this a ‘postcard from the future’ as these conditions resemble what climate change is expected to bring in 20 years' time.
The study estimates 4,51,000 excess heat deaths worldwide between June 2026 and February 2027, compared with a normal year. Of these, 2,39,000 are expected in the next six months alone. The Global South will be hit hardest, with the Sahel, Southeast Asia, and Brazil among the worst affected. For India, the report projects about 15,800 additional heat deaths from September to February. About 7,400 of these are expected between December and February, despite this being the winter season. The authors also warn that heat-related deaths in India and Pakistan will keep rising through the summer of 2027.
The researchers urge governments to act now. They point to early-warning systems, heat action plans, outreach to vulnerable groups, worker protections such as access to cooling and hydration, and stronger health systems as measures that can save lives.
The news in brief
- For Assam’s flood-hit families, livestock is income, insurance and food.
- Himalayan glacial instability can alter the viability of hydro-power projects.
- Why urban professionals in their 40s are quitting the city for a slow life.
- COP31 hosts Australia and Türkiye face the fossil-fuel question.
- India’s foreign minister warns of a food and energy crisis in coming months.
- Indonesia is battling wildfires that have burned vast swathes of forest and peat ecosystems, sparking a regional haze.
- 23 dead in Thailand floods, Bangkok airport in chaos.
Know Your Jargon
‘Loss and Damage’
Following the devastating flash floods which killed more than 1,400 people last month, Nepal has sought a $20 million assistance from the United Nations’ fund for ‘Loss and Damage’. The fund was announced in 2022 to assist low-income countries in coping with climate change-induced disasters. However, the relief sought by Nepal is minuscule when compared to the estimated damage of nearly $5 billion, about a tenth of the Himalayan nation’s gross domestic product. Requests to the fund are already three times the total amount pledged by rich countries, raising doubts about its ability to respond to calamities, according to an analysis by Carbonbrief.
Nepal contributes less than 0.1% to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, yet disasters repeatedly destroy infrastructure and livelihoods and force it to borrow to rebuild, Balendra Shah, the Prime Minister of Nepal, said while addressing the United Nations General Assembly on 25 September. Reminding the world that smaller countries like Nepal are vulnerable to the economic impacts of war as well as a warming climate, Shah said that “we have built a world with flawless logistics for war and broken logistics for food… (we are) hit by the climate we did not warm and hit again by the wars we did not start.”
Prime Number
7.7
India is facing severe night-time power shortages after an El Niño-driven deficit monsoon cut hydropower generation even as electricity demand for cooling and irrigation shot up. The shortfall after sunset, when solar generation fades, reached 7.7GW in September, surpassing levels seen during summer heat waves, according to Bloomberg. Coal plants were forced to fill the gap, burning through inventories. Now the government has mandated that businesses with captive coal generation capacity of more than 50MW run their plants at full throttle and sell surplus electricity through exchanges.
Video of the Month
Baya weavers are building nests on power lines, apparently due to habitat loss and probably as a survival strategy against predators. Here’s a short video by Ujjal Sarkar, a birder from West Bengal. You can read more on this fascinating bird here.
That's all, for now. Bibek will be back with the next issue in a fortnight.