Climate Change and You: Drill, Baby, Drill, is back!

President Donald Trump has done it again. On Monday, he signed an executive order pulling the US out of the Paris Climate agreement which seeks to limit global warming to 1.5 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This is the second time Trump is doing so. This means the US, the largest historical emitter of CO2, will not submit its new target to reduce carbon emissions which is due in February. According to Trump, the Paris climate agreement does not reflect US values and “steer American taxpayer dollars to countries that do not require, or merit, financial assistance."

Trump also declared a national energy emergency on his first day, threatening to unleash higher levels of oil and gas production, and overturned auto emission standards brought in by his predecessor Joe Biden. 

“The inflation crisis was caused by massive overspending and escalating energy prices, and that is why today I will also declare a national energy emergency. We will Drill, baby, drill!" Trump said during his inauguration speech.

Ironically, these actions come in the aftermath of 2024 turning out to be the warmest on record, and recent wildfires in Los Angeles, California, which showed that nature, unlike societies, do not discriminate between the rich and the poor. As of mid-January, five major fires around Los Angeles burned over 40,000 acres, destroyed 12,000 homes and caused an estimated damage of over $250 billion. Among those affected are Hollywood actors and celebrities, including Sir Anthony Hopkins and Paris Hilton, who lost their homes. Interestingly, before the fire broke out, insurance companies began cancelling policies in high-risk areas.

The wildfire season in California was particularly brutal this year as the Santa Ana winds were stronger, bringing with it dry air and low humidity. The unusually wet winters in 2022-23 and 2023-24 led to increased vegetation. And an extremely dry winter beginning October last year created the perfect conditions for the fire. This cycle of wet and dry conditions is known as ‘hydroclimatic whiplash’ which is considered to be behind these devastating fires. 

State of the Climate

Climate breakdown is disproportionately driven by the super-rich whose carbon emissions far exceed those of ordinary people, global non-profit Oxfam said in a recent update.

In fact, the richest 1% exhausted their share of the annual global carbon budget within the first 10 days of 2025- the milestone was dubbed, quite aptly, as the ‘Pollutocrat Day’. The annual carbon budget is the amount of CO2 that can be added to the atmosphere without breaching the 1.5-degree Celsius limit set by the Paris Agreement.

The richest 1% are responsible for more than twice as much carbon emission compared to the poorest half of humanity, Oxfam said. In fact, to meet the 1.5-degree goal, the richest 1% will have to cut their emissions by 97% by 2030.

An analysis by the non-profit showed that the richest 1%, comprising 77 million individuals including billionaires, were responsible for 15.9% of global CO2 emissions in 2019. In comparison, the bottom 50% accounted for just 7.7% of all CO2 emissions. 

Oxfam has asked governments to punitively tax carbon-intensive luxury consumption, starting with their private jets and superyachts, and make rich polluters foot the bill for climate finance needed by countries in the global south.

The news in brief

• Global demand for petroleum products is expected to taper in the coming years amid concerns of an economic slowdown and a transition towards electric vehicles. But India is likely to be an outlier, with consumption seen at a record 252.9 million tonnes for the next financial year (FY26).
• India is aiming to improve its weather forecasting accuracy by 10-15% within the next five years by installing more radars and observational systems. By 2047, every household will have tailor-made weather forecast and early warning, as per the director general of India’s met department.
• 2025 is going to be year of electric vehicles (EV) for India, claim automakers. Leading manufacturers have projected the Indian car market reaching 15-20% EV penetration by 2030. Tata Motors expects three out of 10 cars it sells by 2030 to be electric.
• India is planning to divert surplus rice to make ethanol, making the grain available to manufacturers at just  ₹22.5 per kg, far lower than the economic cost of rice to the Food Corporation of India ( ₹39 per kg). It is remarkable that India achieved 18% blending of ethanol in petrol by end-2024, as part of its energy transition strategy. But to use water-intensive rice to produce green fuels is self-defeating. If you’re interested, take a look at this long story. 
• China, the world’s largest emitter of CO2, is often accused of contributing too little to efforts aimed at helping poor countries deal with climate change. But with 40% of global investments in clean energy, the Chinese think otherwise.

Climate Change Tracker

A crisis, for some, is an unmissable opportunity. The surge in oil and gas prices in 2021 and 2022 resulted in record fossil-fuel profits globally that rehabilitated the oil and gas industry, obstructed energy transition goals and contributed to inflation, finds a newworking paper from researchers at the University of Massachusetts.

The authors estimated that globally, net income of publicly listed oil and gas companies reached $916 billion in 2022. The US was the biggest beneficiary, receiving $301 billion in fossil fuel profits both from domestic extraction and through global shareholding, more than US investments of $267 billion in the low-carbon economy that year.

51% of the profits went to the wealthiest 1%, mostly via direct shareholdings and private company ownership. In contrast, the bottom 50% received just 1%.

Also, since 2021, the stock market valuation of fossil-fuel companies diverged sharply from that of renewable energy companies. The total global and US volumes of profits earned by renewable energy companies is dwarfed by those of fossil fuel companies, the research shows.

According to the authors, a tax on windfall profits can be used to both lower inequality and accelerate the energy transition, as increasing geopolitical tensions and climate impacts means continued volatility in oil and gas markets.

Know Your Jargon

Tipping Point

Tipping point refers to climate thresholds which, once crossed, will lead to harmful and irreversible changes to planetary systems, including its atmosphere, land, forests and seas. In short, it is a point of no return which will destabilize the planet and impact all living beings.

Crossing one tipping point could also lead to a cascading domino effect, and exceeding the 1.5-degree Celsius target may trigger multiple tipping points, as per a 2023 assessment.

For instance, unabated global warming may cause a rainforest to turn into a dry grassland. At 2 degrees of global warming and beyond, several more systems could tip, including the Amazon rainforest and subglacial basins in East Antarctica, and irreversible collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets. 

This will impact water, food and energy security. A dieback of Amazon – where trees and plants see a slow death due to the unfavourable environment – may put 6 million people at direct risk of increased heat stress and cause over $1 trillion in economic damage. Similarly, Antarctic ice sheet instability leading to a potential two metre rise in sea levels may expose 480 million people to annual coastal floods.

Prime Number

92

India’s installedsolar power capacity soared to 92 gigawatts (GW) in October 2024. Just a decade ago, it was less than 3 GW. The growth in installed capacity is impressive: solar now accounts for 20% of the power capacity. But in terms of actual energy generation, it accounts for just 7% of energy generated from all sources.

The wide gap is an indication of deeper problems. The cost of producing solar modules in India went up after it raised tariffs to restrict the inflow of cheap imports from China. Due to rising solar project costs, power distribution companies (discoms) are unwilling to sign power purchase agreements with project developers.

Another challenge is that the supply of solar power is intermittent over the course of a day. So, discoms also need conventional power supplies on a standby, and pay for them whether they use it or not. This raises costs for already cash-strapped discoms.

Movie of the Month

The 2009 documentary No Impact Man tells thestory of Colin Beavan who went on a year-long experiment to drastically reduce his carbon footprint. The story documents the journey of the Beavan family as they try to give up on regular comforts of modern life- be it bottled water, tissue paper, using the elevator or flying down to a holiday destination. The question Colin seeks to answer is: is it possible to live a happy life without consuming and wasting so much? Or, as the film’s tagline asks, can you save the planet without driving your family crazy?

That’s all, for now. Bibek will be back with the next issue, in a fortnight.