Mint TOTM on 8 Jan. 2026 | Tax shortfall tests budget arithmetic, but fiscal cushion holds

As Union Budget 2026 approaches, the government is grappling with a likely ₹1.5-2 trillion tax shortfall in FY26, driven by slower nominal GDP growth, weaker corporate tax collections, and GST rate cuts that were not fully factored into last year’s estimates. Tax revenues grew just 3.3% in April-November, far below the budgeted 10.8%.

Yet the fiscal picture is less alarming than the numbers suggest. Non-tax revenues have provided a strong buffer, with dividends and profits from the RBI and public sector firms already exceeding annual targets by November. Disinvestment receipts have also staged a comeback after years of underperformance.

Crucially, upward revisions to GDP data mean the deficit ratio benefits from a larger base, even with slower growth. Most economists expect the Centre to broadly meet its 4.4% fiscal deficit target, with only marginal slippage. Going forward, conservative tax assumptions and a focus on debt reduction are likely to shape the FY27 budget strategy.

THE MAIN STUFF

Sebi proposes 30-day lag to clear market data confusion

Sebi has proposed a uniform 30-day lag for sharing market data with trading academies and for using such data in teaching, aiming to resolve confusion caused by earlier circulars.

Previously, exchanges could share data with a one-day lag, while academies were told to use three-month-old data—an inconsistency that drew industry criticism. The regulator said a one-day lag risked misuse, while a three-month delay made education less relevant.

The proposal follows feedback and recent litigation involving Avadhut Sathe Trading Academy, where ambiguity over timelines became a key issue. (read more)

India’s economy seen growing 7.4% in FY26

The Indian economy is expected to grow 7.4% in FY26, driven by stronger manufacturing and services, steady household spending and rising investment, official advance estimates showed.

• Nominal GDP, a key input for budget calculations on taxes and fiscal ratios, is projected to expand 8%.
• Manufacturing growth is seen picking up to 7%, services to 9.1%, while investment in fixed assets is projected to rise 7.8%.
• Government spending growth is also expected to accelerate.

Economists broadly agree with the outlook, with global agencies upgrading forecasts, though risks for next year include global slowdown, currency pressures and weather uncertainties. (read more)

Why dense winter fog is emerging as a power risk in north India

Dense winter fog is becoming more than a transport nuisance in north and central India. Combined with high pollution and a rain-deficient winter, it is raising the risk of power outages.

Moisture from fog allows pollutants to settle on power transmission lines, weakening insulation and triggering line tripping. With December rainfall nearly 69% below normal and worse in the north, natural cleaning of lines has been absent. Grid operators have already reported multiple fog-linked snags across northern and central regions.

As electricity demand rises and renewable capacity adds pressure, officials warn that persistent fog could strain an already stretched power grid. (read more)

Trai’s penalty push falters as most fines go unpaid

India’s telecom regulator has sharply increased penalties on operators, but weak enforcement has blunted its impact.

Trai imposed ₹45 crore in fines in FY25, yet recovered just 3%, with most orders challenged in appellate tribunals. Unlike Sebi or the RBI, Trai lacks strong statutory powers and depends on the government for licence action, limiting its ability to curb poor service quality and spam. Auditors and experts say that prolonged litigation has diluted regulatory discipline.

Trai has sought legal amendments, stronger enforcement tools and funding autonomy, but faces pushback from both the telecom department and operators. (read more)

After a bruising 2025, investors reset for 2026

Bad news often changes behaviour, and 2025 delivered that jolt to Indian investors. While headline indices rose about 10%, most portfolios struggled as small and mid-cap stocks sank, earnings stayed weak and foreign investors pulled out. Gold and silver outshone equities, challenging long-held assumptions.

As 2026 begins, fund managers see the pain as productive. Tax cuts, lower interest rates and easing inflation are expected to lift consumption and earnings. Valuations are no longer stretched, domestic liquidity remains strong and selective opportunities are emerging.

The message for investors is clear: diversification, discipline and patience matter more than chasing the next hot theme. (read more)

NEWS IN NUMBERS

0.01%: The advisory fee offered for SBI Funds Management's $1.4 billion IPO, far below the 1.86% industry average, prompting some Wall Street banks to opt out.

5: The number of English cricketers to score their maiden first-class century in a Test match, after Jacob Bethell joined the exclusive list with a hundred against Australia.

52,452: The number of residential properties sold in Delhi-NCR last year, marking a 9% decline, while prices appreciated 19% to ₹6,028 per sq ft, according to Knight Frank.

$2.8 billion: The value of 50 million barrels of oil Venezuela will relinquish to the US, with sale proceeds to benefit both countries, according to President Trump.

$20 billion: The funding raised by Elon Musk's AI startup xAI from investors including Nvidia, Valor Equity Partners, and Qatar Investment Authority in its latest financing round.

23,306: The number of cars China's BYD sold in Germany, Europe's largest car market, in 2025, an eightfold jump, according to the Federal Motor Transport Authority.

852: The number of infrastructure projects announced by the Union Ministry of Finance under public-private partnership model, with a combined cost exceeding ₹17 trillion, dominated by highways.

CHART OF THE DAY

India's capex target is 22% of total budget for FY26: The government's capital expenditure goal is ₹11.2 trillion for FY26—the second straight year it's pegged at more than ₹10 trillion. Its share in total expenditure first went past the 15% mark only during the pandemic, and now stands at over 22%.

LOUNGE RECOMMENDS

Harley-Davidson X440 T review: A bike collab that’s finally come of age

When Harley-Davidson first announced the X440 in partnership with Hero MotoCorp in October 2020, the reception was part curiosity, part cynicism. Could an American cruiser reimagined for Indian roads and wallets survive without the excess or the exhaust note that made Harleys famous?

The Harley-Davidson X440 launched in July 2023 proved that there was an aisle in the crowded Indian motorcycle supermarket for a Harley you didn’t hear coming from three streets away. (read more)

WHAT THE FACT

The Oreo’s hidden logic

The intricate pattern on an Oreo cookie isn’t symbolic; it’s practical. According to David Turnier, whose father created the original 1952 blueprint, the Oreo’s durable dough allowed for highly detailed, easy-to-replicate designs. “The dough dictates what you can do,” he explains. The firm texture could hold fine embossing, almost like stamping a coin, letting bakers add visual complexity at scale.

Edited by Alokesh Bhattacharya. Produced by Tushar Deep Singh.

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