India guards cooking gas amid Iran war

Good morning!

As tensions in West Asia threaten fuel supplies and push crude prices above $100 a barrel, the government has tightened access to cooking gas. A 25-day lock-in period between LPG cylinder bookings has now been introduced to prevent hoarding and prioritise domestic users.

But what does this mean beyond homes? Industries like ceramics, hotels and restaurants may feel the pinch as supplies tighten. Refineries have also been asked to divert propane and butane, key LPG ingredients, away from petrochemicals and toward cooking gas production.

The urgency is understandable. India imports a large share of its LPG from West Asia, and the closure risks around the Strait of Hormuz have rattled global energy flows. The government is now scouting for alternatives—from the US, Australia and Algeria. Will these measures be enough if the conflict drags on? Read the full story by Rituraj Baruah.

In today’s edition of Top of the Morning:

• Dalal Street’s rough Monday
• A new Khamenei convulses oil market
• India’s changing age map

THE MAIN STUFF

Markets jolt as oil crosses $100

A war headline was all it took for markets to flinch. Indian equities opened nearly 3% lower as crude surged past $100 a barrel amid an escalating Iran war. The Nifty 50 logged its sharpest fall since budget day, while investors saw ₹8.47 trillion in market value vanish in a single session.

Asian peers slid, too. By close, the benchmark indices recovered some ground but investors were a bundle of nerves. Analysts say a break below key levels could trigger deeper selling. If oil stays elevated and volatility persists, earnings downgrades may follow. Read on.

AI goes to war

Artificial Intelligence has quietly entered the battlefield. During the latest West Asia conflict, the US reportedly used Anthropic's Claude AI through Palantir Technologies’ defence platform to analyse targets and simulate strategies.

The goal: faster and sharper strikes. But the implications are far bigger. Big Tech once promised guardrails. Yet AI is now helping identify patterns, weaknesses and targets in real time. Critics warn this could be AI’s nuclear moment, demanding global rules before autonomous systems reshape warfare. Because once algorithms start deciding targets, the question becomes ethical.

What’s moving the world

West Asia is on edge after the killing of Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, with Tehran widening the conflict across Gulf nations. Central banks, meanwhile, are pressing pause as war-driven oil shocks complicate policy choices.

China is quietly lowering its growth ambitions, betting on “high-quality” expansion instead of breakneck speed. Then there’s AI, unsettling the global software industry as automation threatens traditional business models. And in Hollywood, the Oscars may again spotlight a curious pattern: youth for women, experience for men. Read all the five stories here.

Oil shock, supply stress

Brent briefly surged nearly 29% to $119.5 a barrel, a four-year high before easing back above $100. But the real story lies in the futures curve—June contracts are trading at a discount to May, a classic case of backwardation that signals acute supply disruption.

Why? The West Asia conflict and threats around the Strait of Hormuz, a route carrying nearly a fifth of global crude. Will emergency reserves from the G7 cool prices, or will a prolonged conflict push oil toward $135? Read on.

India’s changing age map

India loves calling itself a young country—and it is. Nearly 58% of the population is under 35. But zoom into the states and a different story appears. India is both young and ageing at the same time.

By 2026, states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu will officially become “ageing” as their share of people above 60 crosses 15%. By 2036, more than half of India’s states could fall into this category.

Why? Fewer children are being born and people are living longer. Older states may face labour shortages while younger states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh still have abundant workers. Migration could quietly become India’s balancing force, sending young workers where ageing economies need them most. Read more.

AROUND THE WORLD

• Iran picks supreme leader’s son to run country
• AI needs management consultants after all
• Trump under pressure to address gas prices, Iran war strategy
• $100 oil is a stock market reality—and it’s not the only concern
• Emerging markets have become a fixed-income darling. The war in Iran can change that.

CHART OF THE DAY

India's foreign-exchange earnings from tourism fell 10.5% year-on-year in 2025 amid a weaker rupee. This is the worst annual performance since at least 2001, excluding the covid-hit years.

NEWS IN NUMBERS

$15 million: The amount the US Justice Department is seeking to forfeit from funds allegedly used to run an illicit Iranian oil distribution network tied to tycoon Hossein Shamkhani.

35.6°C: The maximum temperature recorded at Delhi’s Safdarjung station on Sunday, 7.2°C above the seasonal average as early‑March heat tightens its grip on the national capital.

$400 million: The corpus of 360 ONE Asset’s fifth private credit fund, aimed at providing structured credit to Indian companies and backed by global institutions, family offices, and wealthy investors.

8.2%: India’s share of global arms imports between 2021 and 2025, making it the world’s second‑largest importer of major weapons systems in that period.

$3.7 billion: The estimated amount the US spent in the first 100 hours of the 2026 Iran war, averaging about $891.4 million per day across operations, munitions, and equipment and infrastructure losses.

60%: The jump in Brent crude prices since the US-Israel strikes on Iran began on 28 February, with the benchmark recently touching $114.93 per barrel.

53: India’s total cheetah population, boosted by the birth of five cubs born to Namibian cheetah Jwala at Kuno National Park, under the country’s reintroduction programme.

LOUNGE RECOMMENDS

Metaxa, the original Greek spirit

“Come quickly, I am tasting the stars” is a quote often attributed to Benedictine monk Dom Perignon, when he serendipitously created the sparkling wine and changed celebrations forever.

It’s probably apocryphal but what’s true is that I am looking at the stars—the Scorpio constellation to be precise on the ceiling of Dubai’s Galaxy Bar. Read more.

WHAT THE FACT

A new eye on Mars

On this day in 2006, NASA’s Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter successfully entered orbit around Mars, marking a major leap in planetary exploration.

The spacecraft was designed to study the Red Planet in unprecedented detail, scanning its surface and atmosphere while searching for evidence of water. Equipped with powerful cameras and scientific instruments, the orbiter began sending back high-resolution images that transformed our understanding of Mars.

Edited by Alokesh Bhattacharyya. Produced by Tushar Deep Singh.

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