Markets rattle as Iran war worries return

Good morning!

Just when investors thought the worst might be behind them, global tensions delivered another jolt to Dalal Street.

Indian equities began the day cautiously but quickly slipped into a broad sell-off as fresh military activity in West Asia revived fears of disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. By the closing bell, benchmark indices had fallen nearly 2%—hitting a 10-month low. In a single session alone, investors saw ₹5.48 trillion wiped off BSE market capitalisation, taking the total wealth erosion since the US-Iran conflict began to nearly ₹20 trillion.

Foreign investors were quick to cut exposure, selling ₹6,267 crore worth of equities, while domestic investors stepped in with ₹4,966 crore of purchases. The market’s fear gauge surged, with India VIX jumping over 11%, signalling rising nervousness.

So what’s spooking investors? Oil. Brent hovered near $91 per barrel, raising worries about inflation, corporate margins and India’s current account deficit in an economy that imports over 85% of its energy.

If tensions cool, markets may stabilise quickly. But if the conflict drags on, analysts warn the shock could ripple across earnings, policy decisions and investor sentiment. Read the full story by Dipti Sharma.

THE MAIN STUFF

India’s gas order raises questions: As the West Asia conflict threatens LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the Indian government has tightened control over natural gas supplies.

A new order under the Essential Commodities Act, 1955, prioritises gas for households, CNG vehicles, LPG production and fertilisers, while industries like petrochemicals, power and refineries may face cuts. There’s another twist. Companies receiving pooled gas must give an undertaking not to challenge the revised allocation in court.

Legal experts say constitutional remedies remain open. Affected firms can still approach high courts or the Supreme Court if they believe the order is arbitrary or disproportionate. Read on.

The Vietnam challenge: India’s economy has strong fundamentals—solid GDP growth, resilient manufacturing and manageable inflation. But two weak links keep showing up—the rupee and the stock market. That’s where Vietnam is quietly stealing the spotlight.

In Mint’s EM Tracker, Vietnam has topped the rankings three of the past four months—powered by rapid export growth, strong manufacturing activity and a rising stock market. India still holds a narrow edge over the past year, but the gap is shrinking.

So what’s holding India back? A weakening rupee, volatile equities and rising external risks, from higher oil prices to geopolitical tensions in West Asia. Read more.

AI vs Auto: The AI revolution may be powering data centres, but it could soon stall car factories. Indian automakers are bracing for a fresh semiconductor squeeze as chipmakers divert production toward high-bandwidth memory used in AI servers. That shift is tightening supplies of conventional memory chips, the tiny components that power vehicle infotainment, ADAS and battery systems.

If the trend continues, industry insiders warn the crunch could hit by late FY27. For now, companies are paying premiums and stockpiling supplies. But will AI’s chip appetite leave the auto industry short again? Read on.

Rewriting workplace rules: India may soon rethink what a “responsible workplace” really looks like. The Centre has launched a review of its workplace social accountability standards, asking the Bureau of Indian Standards to study whether existing norms need an update.

Why now? Because India is preparing to roll out its four new labour codes, a major overhaul of decades-old labour laws. The review will look at everything, from worker safety and anti-discrimination policies to whistleblower protection and data privacy, while also studying global best practices.

Will this simply update compliance checklists, or reshape how companies treat workers and govern workplaces? Read more.

The great reading revival: Who said books were fading in the digital age? Across India, literature festivals and book fairs are drawing record crowds and booming sales. The Kerala Literature Festival alone attracted over 700,000 visitors, while the Kolkata Book Fair saw 3.2 million people walk through its gates.

Bookstores are expanding, publishers are reporting double-digit growth, and younger readers, especially Gen Z, are driving the surge. What’s behind this revival? A mix of digital fatigue, vibrant book communities and a renewed love for storytelling. Is this a trend, or the start of India’s biggest reading renaissance yet? Read on.

NEWS IN NUMBERS

140: The number of US service members wounded in the 10‑day‑old war with Iran, most of them with minor injuries, according to the Pentagon.

50,000: The number of jobs Volkswagen Group plans to cut in Germany by 2030 as profit slumps amid rising costs, US tariffs, and fierce competition from Chinese EV makers.

₹5,255 crore: Net inflows into gold ETFs in February, down 78% from ₹24,040 crore in January, as lower gold prices pared investor appetite.

$500 million: The amount raised by Adani Energy Solutions' subsidiary ATSOL through 15‑year bonds to refinance existing dollar debt maturing in August.

₹144: The price hike on a 19-kg commercial LPG cylinder in India, as oil firms raise cooking gas rates amid supply disruptions from the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict.

9 million: The number of women removed from Maharashtra’s Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana, slashing beneficiaries to 153 million, with 283,000 names dropped in Beed alone.

300: The number of serious adverse‑event reports that FDA inspectors found Novo Nordisk had failed to submit on time for Ozempic and other drugs.

AROUND THE WORLD

• Trump says the Iran war is nearly won but Israel has other ideas
• As Iran war pushes up oil prices, Putin can barely conceal a smirk
• The world needs these two Middle East pipelines now more than ever
• America’s war aims may be diverging from Israel’s
• Fed’s hawks and doves are drifting further apart. What that means

CHART OF THE DAY

About 60% of aspiring women home buyers prefer properties above ₹90 lakh, with 37% eyeing the ₹90 lakh to ₹1.5 crore segment, according to an Anarock survey. More than half of them prefer three-bedroom homes.

LOUNGE RECOMMENDS

The attention crisis: Why modern relationships are struggling: As a therapist I have been observing how our relationship with attention has been changing over the years. Attention has become scarce when it comes to intimate relationships. I see this as a moral fracture of our society where attention is scattered or barely present in relationships. Read more.

WHAT THE FACT

The march of the Mahatma: On this day in 1930, Mahatma Gandhi began the historic Salt March from Sabarmati Ashram to the coastal village of Dandi.

What started as a small group walking to make salt from seawater soon became a powerful act of civil disobedience against British rule. As the march progressed, thousands joined in and salt laws were openly defied across the country. By year’s end, more than 60,000 Indians had been arrested.

Edited by Alokesh Bhattacharyya. Produced by Tushar Deep Singh.

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