Of gold to black gold, and goldilocks

Good morning!

Gold and silver are on a scorching rally, but India’s retail traders are quietly shifting their gaze to something more combustible: energy.

Over the past three months, options trading in crude oil and natural gas has surged on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd., driven by rising geo-political tensions between the US and Iran, and an unusually harsh winter boosting global heating demand.

The result? Energy’s share of MCX’s options premium turnover has climbed back above 60%, overtaking bullion once again. Retail traders, nudged by higher volatility and easier access via online brokers are clearly enjoying the action. “Volatility is the magnet”, as analysts put it, especially in products like crude and natural gas where price swings can be sharp and fast.

There’s also a business angle. Options now contribute more to MCX revenues than futures, helping the exchange more than double its income and sending its stock soaring over 130% in the past year.

So, is this a short-term thrill ride, or a deeper shift in trading behaviour? If geopolitical risks persist and energy markets stay jumpy, the heat in energy options may just be getting started. Read the full report by Ram Sahgal.

THE MAIN STUFF

India–EU FTA signed but not live—yet

After 20 years of talks, the India–EU FTA is finally sealed, but when does it actually kick in? Not just yet. The pact now enters a long legal lane, vetting, translation into 24 EU languages, approval by 27 member states, a green light from the European Parliament, and India’s cabinet nod.

If all goes smoothly, expect lift-off in early 2027. Why the caution? Recent EU deals offer a warning.

The EU’s agreement with Mercosur hit legal and political roadblocks despite being signed. The India–EU FTA may fare better, it smartly sidesteps sensitive farm sectors, but grey areas around sustainability, labour norms and IP could still spark debate. Read on.

Air India’s long climb back

Four years after the Tata Group took over Air India, the airline is steadier but still playing catch-up. Passenger numbers are rising, integration is underway, yet growth has lagged market leader IndiGo.

A tragic crash in 2025 slowed momentum, but even before that, capacity additions and fleet renewal trailed rivals. New planes are coming, pilots are being hired, and routes have been reshaped. With losses persisting despite favourable fuel prices, when does consolidation finally turn into a credible challenge? Read more.

What readers want from Budget 2026

Tax relief has clearly struck a chord, but readers want more. A Mint poll ahead of Budget 2026 shows tax rates topping the wish list for the middle-class, even after last year’s generous slab tweaks.

Jobs for youth follow close behind, while health, education and infrastructure trail. Nearly 60% say tax cuts improved daily life, yet a strong appetite for a populist budget remains.

Should the government double down on relief? Or balance it with long-term reforms? Interestingly, most readers prefer five-year thinking over distant 2047 goals, proof that the budget still feels very personal.

A familiar January script on Dalal St

Every January, Dalal Street seems to hum the same tune. FPIs sell ahead of the union budget, retreating on valuations and global jitters, while domestic investors quietly step up.

This year is no different, foreign money is heading out, but SIP-fuelled DIIs are holding the fort. Has the union budget become a largely domestic affair now? Not quite. Experts say FPIs aren’t questioning the budget’s relevance, just India’s pricing versus global risks. With tight fiscal room, markets aren’t chasing fireworks, just clarity, prudence and tax certainty. Read on.

A goldilocks budget test

As Nirmala Sitharaman readies her ninth budget, India finds itself in a rare sweet spot—strong growth, tame inflation, but with cracks beneath the shine.

Government spending is doing the heavy lifting, while private investment, exports and consumption lag.

Can Union Budget 2026 reignite animal spirits without blowing the fiscal fuse? With revenues under pressure, debt still high, and capex nearing its limits, markets will look beyond giveaways to reform signals, on taxes, debt discipline and investment confidence. Read more.

NEWS IN NUMBERS

$25 million: The combined seed and Series A funding raised by Fulcrum, an AI insurance platform, led by CRV with backing from South Park Commons and Foundation Capital.

3,300: The number of new aircraft India and other South Asian countries are expected to need by 2044, driven by a 7% annual rise in passenger air traffic, according to Boeing Co.

$25 billion: The projected market capitalisation of India’s REIT sector by 2030, up from $18 billion in 2025, driven by expanding investable assets.

₹1,579 crore: The consolidated net profit reported by state-owned defence major Bharat Electronics Ltd. for the December 2025 quarter, marking a 20.45% year-on-year increase.

₹3,794 crore: The net profit reported by Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. for Q3 FY26, up 3.7% year-on-year, despite a ₹593.9 crore one-time provision related to the New Labour Codes.

30,000: The number of operational jobs UPS plans to cut this year as it reduces dependency on Amazon and focuses on high-profit sectors like healthcare.

$50,000: The maximum fine Coco Gauff could potentially face for smashing a racquet in a restricted corridor after her shock quarter-final defeat at the Australian Open.

AROUND THE WORLD

Key Gulf allies say they won’t aid the US in an Iran strike

Trump's Fed picks aren't exactly what he wants

SoftBank in talks to invest up to $30 billion more in OpenAI

Can silver go higher still? How to play it safer.

How to fix Disney: A road map for the next CEO

CHART OF THE DAY

The Centre has allocated over ₹2 trillion to the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY) in FY26—the highest among all major schemes. Among centrally sponsored schemes, Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme has been allocated ₹86,000 crore.

LOUNGE RECOMMENDS

A therapist’s guide to building reciprocal relationships

A 40-year-old client in a therapy session talks about people saying all the right things, but when it’s time to act or show up, they fall short. She says, “I’ve started to feel frustrated both with my family and some of my friendships as I always seem to be the one taking the initiative and giving my time and energy. I’m tired and beginning to feel disillusioned.” Read more.

WHAT THE FACT — Ice cream cone innovation

On this day in 1924, Carl Rutherford Taylor of Cleveland patented the first machine designed to roll ice-cream cones, an invention that helped standardise and scale one of the world’s favourite dessert staples.

Edited by Alokesh Bhattacharyya. Produced by Tushar Deep Singh.

Top of the Morning is Mint's flagship newsletter that captures the latest in business news and stock market you need to know to start your day. Want this delivered to your inbox? Subscribe here.