The Iran war threat for India's agriculture

With the ongoing Iran war in West Asia and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a route that carries nearly 70% of India’s urea imports, New Delhi is quietly rewriting its sourcing strategy. The new plan is to diversify fertiliser imports by ramping up purchases from Indonesia, Belarus, Morocco, Jordan, Russia and China ahead of the crucial kharif sowing season starting June.

The move reflects India’s heavy dependence on global supplies. The country is the world’s largest importer of Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) and urea and the second-largest fertiliser consumer. Until now, much of this supply came from West Asia, with Oman dominating urea shipments and Saudi Arabia leading DAP exports to India.

Experts say diversification is both strategic and necessary.

Could expanding imports from Russia, China or Morocco help hedge geopolitical risks? Possibly. But, with costs. Alternate shipping routes and suppliers could make fertilisers more expensive.

For now, India has a cushion. Fertilizer stocks have risen 36.6% year-on-year to 18.01 million tonnes, offering breathing room before Kharif demand peaks. Read the full report by Vijay C Roy and Rituraj Baruah.

In today’s edition of Top of the Morning:

• Options market signals Nifty fear
• Bollywood’s Gulf earnings at risk
• Missiles over Dubai, but life goes on

THE MAIN STUFF

Dubai property rally meets geopolitical jitters: Dubai’s real estate boom has long had a strong Indian imprint. In fact, Indians account for over 20% of all foreign property purchases, investing nearly ₹95,000 crore in 2025, up sharply from ₹37,000 crore in 2023.

But with rising geopolitical tensions in West Asia, will investors hit pause? Early signals suggest a wait-and-watch mood, especially for off-plan or speculative property deals. After all, Dubai prices have surged 60-70% since 2021, and a correction may be around the corner. Meanwhile, India’s own property market has rebounded strongly post-pandemic, though sales momentum is now plateauing. Read on.

India’s gas vulnerability exposed

The Iran-Israel conflict has stalled traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting LNG shipments from Qatar and triggering force majeure notices between Petronet LNG and QatarEnergy. That has tightened gas supplies and increased uncertainty.

India already imports about half of its natural gas, with 40–50% coming from Qatar. And demand keeps rising, fueling fertiliser plants, CNG vehicles and piped gas to millions of homes. Can India scale domestic production fast enough, or will it remain exposed to global shocks? Read more.

Are investors bracing for a deeper fall? Is the market preparing for the worst? That’s what options data seems to suggest.

As the West Asia conflict intensifies and oil prices surge, investors are rushing to buy protection. Demand for the Nifty 22000 put option, a hedge against a steeper decline, has skyrocketed, with its price jumping 15 times in just two weeks. Open interest has also surged, signalling strong downside bets.

The Nifty 50 has already fallen 8% since late February, and analysts warn it could test its 52-week low near 21,743 if tensions persist. Read on.

War clouds Bollywood’s Gulf box office: Could a war thousands of kilometres away hit Indian cinema’s ticket sales? It just might.

West Asia, home to over 9 million Indians, is one of the biggest overseas markets for Hindi and South Indian films, contributing 25–30% of overseas box office collections. But rising tensions in the region are forcing producers into a wait-and-watch mode, with theatre footfalls expected to drop despite cinemas staying open. Upcoming releases, from Bhooth Bangla to Drishyam 3, were counting on Gulf audiences. Read more.

Missiles over Dubai, but life goes on: What does war look like from a city that refuses to pause? In Dubai, it can feel strangely surreal. One moment the sky flashes with streaks of light, the next day cafés are full and children return to the swimming pool.

As tensions in West Asia trigger missile alerts and fighter jets overhead, residents, many far from their home countries, are quietly adapting.

Families gather in windowless corners during alerts, WhatsApp groups buzz with rumours, and then routine resumes.

Is it denial, resilience, or something deeper? For many expatriates, Dubai isn’t just where they work anymore, it’s a home worth holding on to. Read on.

NEWS IN NUMBERS

50.7 million: The number of PhonePe shares that Walmart, Tiger Global, and Microsoft plan to sell in the fintech's upcoming IPO, with Walmart reducing its stake and the others exiting completely.

$10 million: The bounty offered by the US State Department under its Rewards for Justice programme for information on Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and senior IRGC-linked officials.

86 million: The number of crude oil barrels the Trump administration is releasing from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the first phase as part of a larger plan to ease global fuel prices.

$20 billion: The value of the US Army's contract with Anduril Industries to supply software, hardware, and services aimed at accelerating technology delivery to soldiers on the battlefield.

11: The number of Indian nationals in the US charged with visa fraud for allegedly staging armed robberies so store clerks could falsely claim crime victim status in Green Card applications.

22: The number of India‑flagged vessels, carrying LPG, crude, and LNG, stranded west of the Strait of Hormuz amid the West Asia conflict.

2.5%: The revised minimum public shareholding requirement for large listed firms under India's amended IPO rules, down from the earlier 5%, according to a Finance Ministry notification.

AROUND THE WORLD

• Iran war delivers windfall to America’s oil country
• China resumes military flights around Taiwan after sudden 10-day hiatus
• CEOs want to be like Warren Buffett, right down to his shareholder letter
• For Xi, Iran war reinforces view of US as dangerous superpower
• The US attacked Iran’s Kharg Island. What it could mean for oil prices.

LOUNGE RECOMMENDS

The hidden toll of WFH life: When content strategist Mayuri Kavle lived in Mumbai in the pre-pandemic years, commuting to work meant navigating trains and hopping into autos before walking the last stretch— a routine she really enjoyed. “I would catch up on a lot of reading and overall, that travel time was quality ‘me time’. Meeting people in the office was great fun too,” she reflects. Read more.

WHAT THE FACT

Crimea’s controversial referendum: On this day in 2014, a referendum in Crimea reported that 97% of voters supported seceding from Ukraine and joining Russia. However, the vote was rejected by the Ukrainian government in Kyiv and widely dismissed by the international community.

Only a handful of countries recognized Russia’s subsequent annexation of the region, leaving Crimea’s status a subject of ongoing global dispute.

Edited by Vikram Kumar. Produced by Tushar Deep Singh.

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