The El Niño risk to monsoon in India

India could be headed for one of its driest monsoons in years in 2026 with Skymet predicting rainfall at 94% of the long-period average, below the normal 96-104% range. The India Meteorological Department has pegged it at at 92% of the 50-year average.

The El Niño effect raises the odds of poor rainfall, with 70% probability of below-normal or drought-like conditions—higher than that in 2023.

While forecasts broadly align with expectations, reliability remains a concern. Both Skymet and the IMD have frequently missed rainfall intensity, with Skymet’s accuracy slipping in recent years.

A weak monsoon carries significant economic risks. Agriculture, which depends heavily on rains, supports nearly 40% of India’s workforce and drives rural demand. Past below-normal rainfall years have seen farm output weaken and inflation spike.

With global supply disruptions already in play, a poor monsoon could worsen food prices and strain growth. Even so, forecasts offer directional cues for planning, though large errors could lead to missteps in agriculture and water management.

THE MAIN STUFF

Tata Trusts to discuss ‘vexing’ issues in May: Tata Trusts is expected to discuss several vexing issues, including whether to retain Tata Sons as a private company and the possibility of giving a third full term to Chairman Natarajan Chandrasekaran, during a meeting in the second week of May.

Also on the agenda is how to provide an exit to largest minority shareholder SP Group, especially after Shapoorji Mistry called for listing of the holding company of the salt-to-software conglomerate. Read more.

India’s inflation rate at highest in FY26: India’s retail inflation rose to 3.4% in March from 3.21% in February, driven by higher food and energy prices amid the Iran war. Food inflation climbed to 3.87%, while housing inflation remained largely stable. The reading matched economists’ expectations and stayed below the Reserve Bank of India’s 4% target.

The data comes days after the RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25%, citing growing uncertainty from rising oil prices and currency pressures. With inflation inching up and growth expected to slow, policymakers face increasing stagflation risks in the months ahead. Read more.

India wants to be a battery powerhouse: India is planning an Approved List of Battery Manufacturers to mandate trusted, local suppliers for government-backed energy storage projects, aiming to reduce import dependence and strengthen energy security.

The move, part of the broader India Battery Vision 2047, will set localisation norms across the battery value chain, from minerals to recycling. The ALBM will act as a non-tariff barrier—similar to the solar power sector—and guide participation in projects worth $38 billion.

With demand for battery storage rising, the policy seeks to build domestic capacity, attract investment, and ensure control over critical infrastructure components. Read more.

Rising costs set to dent India Inc.’s Q4 earnings: The cascading effect of Iran war is expected to weigh on India Inc.’s March-quarter performance, with Nifty 50 profit growth likely slowing to about 4% year-on-year from 10% in the previous quarter. While revenues may still grow 10–13%, higher crude and commodity prices are squeezing margins, widening the gap between sales and profits.

Analysts say earnings quality is weakening as growth is driven more by pricing than demand. Sectors like FMCG, paints and chemicals face pressure, while autos and BFSI offer some support. Overall, FY26 earnings growth may moderate to around 6%, with risks of further downgrades ahead. Read more.

GIFT City’s second act: GIFT City is emerging as a hub for outbound investing, with firms like Marcellus Investment Managers and Mirae Asset launching global funds.

Backed by regulatory support from International Financial Services Centres Authority, it is easing access to overseas markets. However, friction persists under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme, including a 20% tax collected at source. Despite this, demand is rising as investors seek diversification beyond India’s narrow market, positioning GIFT City as a key bridge to global investing. Read more.

NEWS IN NUMBERS

• ₹𝟣𝟦𝟦.𝟧 𝖼𝗋𝗈𝗋𝖾: 𝖳𝗁𝖾 𝖽𝖾𝗉𝗈𝗌𝗂𝗍 𝖺𝗆𝗈𝗎𝗇𝗍 𝖲𝗉𝗂𝖼𝖾𝖩𝖾𝗍 𝗐𝖺𝗋𝗇𝖾𝖽 𝖼𝗈𝗎𝗅𝖽 𝖼𝖺𝗎𝗌𝖾 𝗂𝗍𝗌 𝖼𝗈𝗅𝗅𝖺𝗉𝗌𝖾 𝗂𝖿 𝗉𝖺𝗂𝖽 𝗂𝗆𝗆𝖾𝖽𝗂𝖺𝗍𝖾𝗅𝗒, 𝖺𝗌 𝗂𝗍 𝖻𝖺𝗍𝗍𝗅𝖾𝗌 𝖼𝖺𝗌𝗁-𝖿𝗅𝗈𝗐 𝗌𝗍𝗋𝖾𝗌𝗌 𝖿𝗋𝗈𝗆 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝖶𝖾𝗌𝗍 𝖠𝗌𝗂𝖺 𝖼𝗈𝗇𝖿𝗅𝗂𝖼𝗍 𝖺𝗇𝖽 𝗋𝗂𝗌𝗂𝗇𝗀 𝖠𝖳𝖥 𝗉𝗋𝗂𝖼𝖾𝗌 𝗂𝗇 𝗂𝗍𝗌 𝖽𝗂𝗌𝗉𝗎𝗍𝖾 𝗐𝗂𝗍𝗁 𝖪𝖺𝗅𝖺𝗇𝗂𝗍𝗁𝗂 𝖬𝖺𝗋𝖺𝗇.
• ₹𝟣,𝟣𝟢𝟧 𝖼𝗋𝗈𝗋𝖾: 𝖳𝗁𝖾 𝖺𝗆𝗈𝗎𝗇𝗍 𝖢𝗂𝗍𝗂𝗎𝗌 𝖳𝗋𝖺𝗇𝗌𝖭𝖾𝗍 𝖨𝗇𝗏𝖾𝗌𝗍𝗆𝖾𝗇𝗍 𝖳𝗋𝗎𝗌𝗍 𝖨𝗇𝗏𝖨𝖳 𝖺𝗂𝗆𝗌 𝗍𝗈 𝗋𝖺𝗂𝗌𝖾 𝗍𝗁𝗋𝗈𝗎𝗀𝗁 𝗂𝗍𝗌 𝖨𝖯𝖮 𝗍𝗁𝗂𝗌 𝗐𝖾𝖾𝗄, 𝗉𝗋𝗂𝗆𝖺𝗋𝗂𝗅𝗒 𝗍𝗈 𝖺𝖼𝗊𝗎𝗂𝗋𝖾 𝗋𝗈𝖺𝖽 𝗉𝗋𝗈𝗃𝖾𝖼𝗍 𝖲𝖯𝖵𝗌, 𝗂𝗇𝖼𝗅𝗎𝖽𝗂𝗇𝗀 𝖲𝖱𝖯𝖫 𝖱𝗈𝖺𝖽𝗌 𝖺𝗇𝖽 𝗈𝗍𝗁𝖾𝗋𝗌.
• $𝟤𝟢 𝗆𝗂𝗅𝗅𝗂𝗈𝗇: 𝖳𝗁𝖾 𝖺𝗆𝗈𝗎𝗇𝗍 𝖠𝖨 𝖿𝗂𝗋𝗆 𝖧𝗎𝗆𝗒𝗇 𝖫𝖺𝖻𝗌 𝗂𝗌 𝗂𝗇𝗏𝖾𝗌𝗍𝗂𝗇𝗀 𝗍𝗈 𝖾𝗑𝗉𝖺𝗇𝖽 𝖽𝖺𝗍𝖺 𝖼𝗈𝗅𝗅𝖾𝖼𝗍𝗂𝗈𝗇 𝖺𝖼𝗋𝗈𝗌𝗌 𝖨𝗇𝖽𝗂𝖺, 𝖲𝗈𝗎𝗍𝗁𝖾𝖺𝗌𝗍 𝖠𝗌𝗂𝖺, 𝖫𝖺𝗍𝗂𝗇 𝖠𝗆𝖾𝗋𝗂𝖼𝖺, 𝖺𝗇𝖽 𝖶𝖾𝗌𝗍 𝖠𝗌𝗂𝖺 𝗍𝗈 𝗍𝗋𝖺𝗂𝗇 𝗉𝗁𝗒𝗌𝗂𝖼𝖺𝗅 𝖠𝖨 𝗌𝗒𝗌𝗍𝖾𝗆𝗌 𝖺𝗇𝖽 𝗏𝗈𝗂𝖼𝖾 𝗆𝗈𝖽𝖾𝗅𝗌.
• ₹𝟣.𝟪 𝗍𝗋𝗂𝗅𝗅𝗂𝗈𝗇: 𝖳𝗁𝖾 𝗍𝗈𝗍𝖺𝗅 𝖥𝖯𝖨 𝗈𝗎𝗍𝖿𝗅𝗈𝗐 𝖿𝗋𝗈𝗆 𝖨𝗇𝖽𝗂𝖺𝗇 𝖾𝗊𝗎𝗂𝗍𝗂𝖾𝗌 𝗂𝗇 𝟤𝟢𝟤𝟨 𝗌𝗈 𝖿𝖺𝗋, 𝗌𝗎𝗋𝗉𝖺𝗌𝗌𝗂𝗇𝗀 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝖿𝗎𝗅𝗅-𝗒𝖾𝖺𝗋 𝟤𝟢𝟤𝟧 𝖾𝗑𝗂𝗍 𝗈𝖿 ₹𝟣.𝟨𝟨 𝗍𝗋𝗂𝗅𝗅𝗂𝗈𝗇, 𝖽𝗋𝗂𝗏𝖾𝗇 𝖻𝗒 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝖴𝖲-𝖨𝗋𝖺𝗇 𝖼𝗈𝗇𝖿𝗅𝗂𝖼𝗍, 𝗋𝗂𝗌𝗂𝗇𝗀 𝖼𝗋𝗎𝖽𝖾 𝗉𝗋𝗂𝖼𝖾𝗌, 𝖺𝗇𝖽 𝗋𝗎𝗉𝖾𝖾 𝖽𝖾𝗉𝗋𝖾𝖼𝗂𝖺𝗍𝗂𝗈𝗇.
• 𝟨,𝟢𝟣𝟥: 𝖳𝗁𝖾 𝗇𝗎𝗆𝖻𝖾𝗋 𝗈𝖿 𝖨𝖯𝖫 𝗋𝗎𝗇𝗌 𝖱𝗈𝗁𝗂𝗍 𝖲𝗁𝖺𝗋𝗆𝖺 𝗁𝖺𝗌 𝗌𝖼𝗈𝗋𝖾𝖽 𝖿𝗈𝗋 𝖬𝗎𝗆𝖻𝖺𝗂 𝖨𝗇𝖽𝗂𝖺𝗇𝗌 𝗂𝗇 𝟤𝟥𝟣 𝗆𝖺𝗍𝖼𝗁𝖾𝗌, 𝗆𝖺𝗄𝗂𝗇𝗀 𝗁𝗂𝗆 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝖿𝗂𝗋𝗌𝗍 𝗍𝗈 𝗋𝖾𝖺𝖼𝗁 𝟨,𝟢𝟢𝟢 𝗋𝗎𝗇𝗌 𝖿𝗈𝗋 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝖿𝗋𝖺𝗇𝖼𝗁𝗂𝗌𝖾, 𝖺𝗍 𝖺𝗇 𝖺𝗏𝖾𝗋𝖺𝗀𝖾 𝗈𝖿 𝟤𝟫.𝟩𝟨.
• ₹𝟥,𝟧𝟦𝟩 𝖼𝗋𝗈𝗋𝖾: 𝖳𝗁𝖾 𝗌𝖺𝗅𝖾𝗌 𝗋𝖾𝗉𝗈𝗋𝗍𝖾𝖽 𝖻𝗒 𝖯𝗎𝗋𝖺𝗏𝖺𝗇𝗄𝖺𝗋𝖺 𝗂𝗇 𝖰𝟦 𝖥𝖸𝟤𝟨, 𝗎𝗉 𝟣𝟫𝟢% 𝖿𝗋𝗈𝗆 ₹𝟣,𝟤𝟤𝟧 𝖼𝗋𝗈𝗋𝖾 𝗂𝗇 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝗌𝖺𝗆𝖾 𝗉𝖾𝗋𝗂𝗈𝖽 𝗅𝖺𝗌𝗍 𝗒𝖾𝖺𝗋, 𝖾𝗏𝖾𝗇 𝖺𝗌 𝗂𝗍𝗌 𝖼𝗈𝗅𝗅𝖾𝖼𝗍𝗂𝗈𝗇𝗌 𝗋𝗈𝗌𝖾 𝟥𝟨% 𝗍𝗈 ₹𝟣,𝟤𝟣𝟥 𝖼𝗋𝗈𝗋𝖾.
• 𝟧𝟢%: 𝖳𝗁𝖾 𝗉𝗋𝗈𝗃𝖾𝖼𝗍𝖾𝖽 𝗌𝗎𝗋𝗀𝖾 𝗂𝗇 𝖳𝖲𝖬𝖢’𝗌 𝗇𝖾𝗍 𝗉𝗋𝗈𝖿𝗂𝗍 𝖿𝗈𝗋 𝖰𝟣 𝟤𝟢𝟤𝟨—𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝖿𝗈𝗎𝗋𝗍𝗁 𝗌𝗍𝗋𝖺𝗂𝗀𝗁𝗍 𝗊𝗎𝖺𝗋𝗍𝖾𝗋 𝗈𝖿 𝗋𝖾𝖼𝗈𝗋𝖽 𝖾𝖺𝗋𝗇𝗂𝗇𝗀𝗌 𝖽𝗋𝗂𝗏𝖾𝗇 𝖻𝗒 𝖻𝗈𝗈𝗆𝗂𝗇𝗀 𝖽𝖾𝗆𝖺𝗇𝖽 𝖿𝗈𝗋 𝗂𝗍𝗌 𝟥-𝗇𝗆 𝖠𝖨 𝖼𝗁𝗂𝗉𝗌.

AROUND THE WORLD

Trump weighs limited strikes on Iran after talks collapse

America’s next Fed chair is caught in a vice

Donald Trump is the war’s biggest loser

White House fields warnings about Iran war’s economic hit

Meta expected to unseat Google as world’s largest ad player

CHART OF THE DAY

Around 9.8 million households undertook own-account construction for their own use in 2025, according to government data. Uttar Pradesh alone accounted for over 14% of the total households, followed by Odisha and Maharashtra.

LOUNGE RECOMMENDS

Obituary | Asha Bhosle (1933-2026): The death of Asha Bhosle, one of India’s most beloved, prolific, and genre-defying singers, doesn’t just feel like the loss of a musician but also like saying goodbye to a voice that’s always been there, to that kindly neighbour whose door you could always knock on. For decades—across generations, languages, and styles—she was part of the everyday soundtrack of life. Read more.

WHAT THE FACT

The day Lincoln fell: On this day in 1865, US President Abraham Lincoln was shot at Ford’s Theatre in Washington D.C. by actor John Wilkes Booth while watching a play.

The attack came just days after the end of the US Civil War, turning celebration into shock. Lincoln died the following morning, becoming the first US president to be assassinated. His death plunged the US into mourning and left reconstruction without its guiding figure at a critical moment in American history.

Edited by Alokesh Bhattacharyya. Produced by Tushar Deep Singh.

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