The great Indian IT meltdown

The Nifty 50 ended more than 1% lower on Tuesday, weighed down by relentless selloff in IT stocks. The Nifty IT index has plunged 24% year-to-date, including a sharp 6.2% fall in just two sessions, erasing ₹3.04 trillion in investor wealth in a single day. Foreign investors have pulled out $8.7 billion from Indian IT stocks in 2025 so far.

At the heart of the fear? Artificial intelligence. Investors worry that AI-led automation could compress billing rates and disrupt the traditional manpower-driven model. Even though IT firms are investing heavily in AI, experts caution that meaningful revenue benefits may take years to materialise.

Globally, tech stocks are also under strain, while Trump’s renewed tariff rhetoric has added to the uncertainty. Yet, domestic institutional investors continue to buy, acting as a cushion.

Is this an emotional overreaction, or the beginning of a deeper reset for India’s IT giants? Read the full story by Srushti Vaidya.

THE MAIN STUFF

Fraud jolt at IDFC

A suspected ₹590-crore fraud at IDFC First Bank’s Chandigarh branch has rattled markets, knocking the stock down 18% in two days. The bank says that it is an employee-led lapse with possible external collusion, not a systemic issue, which was also backed by the RBI.

Financially, management insists the hit is manageable, with government deposits forming just 0.5% of its ₹2.82 trillion base. A forensic audit is underway. Will this remain an isolated dent? Read on.

RBI’s mis-selling crackdown

The RBI wants banks to clean up how they sell financial products, especially life insurance dressed up as investments. The draft guidelines promise accountability, but stop short of spelling out penalties. For now, markets seem calm.

Why does this matter? Banks now bring in nearly one-third of new life insurance premiums, with some insurers getting over half their business from bancassurance. If stricter rules kick in, growth could slow. We’ve seen this movie before; ULIP reforms once jolted the sector. Read more.

GDP cooling or still cruising?

India’s economy likely grew 7.4% in the October–December quarter, according to a Mint poll of 18 economists, a tad slower than the previous 8.2%, but still solid.

Government spending cuts and weak exports weighed on momentum, yet festive demand and GST tweaks kept growth above 7%. Now, fresh GDP data on 27 February will shift the base year to 2022-23. Could that change the narrative? Economists still see FY26 growth at 7.5%, higher than RBI’s estimate. Read on.

Who’s steering the market now?

February has turned into a tug of war. IT stocks are wobbling on AI fears, while banks are powering ahead with strong earnings. The result? IT’s share of India Inc.’s profit pool has slipped to 9%, a three-year low; BFSI has climbed to 45%.

Yet markets aren’t celebrating. Despite financials’ strength, IT’s 20% slide over the past year has dragged sentiment lower. If AI fears ease, IT could stabilise. But for now, banks are the market’s anchor. Read more.

The anatomy of a digital arrest

It started with a phone call. It ended with ₹5.85 crore gone! A Gurugram executive was tricked into transferring her life savings after fraudsters posed as tax officials, police and even judges on video calls. They knew her son’s school. They threatened detention. She complied.

Within 48 hours, the money splintered across 28 accounts and 136 transfers, many linked to low-income account holders and a little-known cooperative bank now under investigation. The case has reached the Supreme Court, which is weighing stricter rules and faster fund-freeze mechanisms.

Read the full story here.

AROUND THE WORLD

• Meta and AMD agree to AI chips deal worth over $100 billion
• Inside Apple’s push to build an all-American chip
• Trump considers a tariff workaround after SCOTUS ruling
• Here are (some) answers to your biggest tariff questions
• The AI productivity boom is not here (yet)

CHART OF THE DAY

About 81% of Indian school children from low-income backgrounds know edtech can be used for learning, according to a new survey. Gen AI also appears to be finding favour among them.

NEWS IN NUMBERS

3.3X
The ratio of private credit downgrades to upgrades in February, up from 2.4 times a year ago, as Morningstar DBRS flags worsening credit quality in North American and European markets.

5,000
The number of flights to and from the US cancelled on Monday as a major winter storm brought blizzard conditions, heavy snow, and emergencies from Maryland to Maine.

9.1%
The average salary hike India Inc is projected to offer employees in 2026, slightly above the 8.9% actual increase recorded in 2025.

92
The number of suspected cartel traffickers Mexico has transferred to the US for trial after President Trump designated major cartels as foreign terrorist organisations.

5.99%
The average 30-year fixed US mortgage rate, now at its lowest level since 2022 and over one percentage point below the 6.89% rate a year ago.

₹1.58 Trillion
The size of Jharkhand’s 2026–27 state budget, up from ₹1.45 trillion in 2025–26, which includes a new scheme for women engaged in agriculture.

₹5 Lakh
The penalty imposed on Jaquar, maker of bathroom fittings, by the Central Consumer Protection Authority for misleading ads claiming a 50,000‑hour rated life for its 9W and 12W LED bulbs.

LOUNGE RECOMMENDS

How to train for Hyrox like an athlete

Runners are going for it. Former Crossfitters think it is the perfect challenge. It’s a content gold mine for fit-fluencers and is on top of every fitness enthusiast’s to-do list. Even casual fitness folk are contemplating signing up for it.

Hyrox, arguably the most viral trend in the exercise world today, is what we are talking about. The race is coming to Bengaluru this April before heading to Mumbai and Delhi. Read more.

WHAT THE FACT

George Harrison’s birthday

On this day in 1943, George Harrison, a British musician and legendary lead guitarist of The Beatles was born. As a key force behind one of the most influential bands in rock and roll history, Harrison helped shape modern music.

Edited by Alokesh Bhattacharyya. Produced by Tushar Deep Singh.

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