The India impact of Iran war

The assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and retaliatory strikes between Israel-US and Iran have pushed the Gulf into its most volatile phase in decades, disrupting energy flows, shipping lanes, and air travel.

For India and global markets, the risks are immediate:

• While Iran hasn’t officially announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, traffic has slowed to a trickle in a waterway that carries nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply daily. About half of India’s crude imports and over 50% of its LNG move through this route.
• Crude oil prices surged to $80 per barrel after Saudi Aramco shut its Ras Tanura refinery due to drone strikes by Iran.
• Shipping lines such as Mediterranean Shipping Co. and A.P. Moller-Maersk are rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10–20 days to Europe-bound voyages and lifting freight rates by 40–50%.
• Marine war-risk insurance premiums have surged, with some London insurers cancelling or sharply repricing cover.
• Airspace closures across the Gulf have disrupted flights, with hubs like Dubai and Doha critical to over 40% of India’s outbound international traffic.

Ships are stranded near Hormuz, exporters face higher costs, and travellers are postponing plans. While the market hopes the Iran war remains brief, a prolonged standoff could deepen inflation pressures, strain trade flows and test energy security across Asia and Europe.

THE MAIN STUFF

The hidden climate cost of your AI query

As India positions itself as an AI and data-centre hub, concerns are rising over energy and water use. According to the International Energy Agency, AI data centres can consume enough electricity to power 100,000 homes, with global usage set to more than double by 2030.

India’s data-centre capacity has tripled since 2020 and may hit 6.5 GW by 2030, though the sector currently accounts for just 0.5% of total electricity demand.

Cooling drives heavy water use, and with 43% of global data centres in water-stressed areas, policymakers face tough trade-offs as expansion accelerates. Read more. Read more.

Highways India Pvt. Ltd.?

India is expected to see nearly ₹1 trillion in private investment commitments for highway construction in FY27, marking the strongest revival yet of the build-operate-transfer model.

Projects worth ₹35,000 crore are set to be bid out early in the year, with another ₹50,000–60,000 crore pipeline under preparation.

Unlike the hybrid annuity model, BOT requires higher upfront equity and exposes developers to traffic risk.

After years of muted activity, investor interest is reviving amid policy tweaks and strong toll visibility. Total highway awards may reach ₹3-4 trillion in FY27, signalling a decisive shift back to private-led road building.

India’s EV story, in fits and starts

India’s EV push is losing momentum, putting its 30% penetration target for 2030 at risk. EVs accounted for 8% of overall auto sales in 2025, up from under 1% in 2020, but adoption across body types is skewed at best.

Patchy charging infrastructure remains the biggest hurdle, with fewer than a third of the 29,000 charging stations in India offering quick top-ups. In some states, there is one, maybe two, charger for every 1,000 EVs. Hybrids, seen as safer bets, now outpace EVs in car sales despite higher GST.

Analysts warn without stronger supply-side mandates and better infrastructure, India’s electric mobility ambitions may fall short.

How discipline is fuelling Milky Mist’s national ambition

A school dropout who shuns consultants, Sathish Kumar built Milky Mist into a ₹2,350 crore dairy brand through relentless self-learning and a sharp bet on value-added products. The company clocked 30% CAGR between FY23 and FY25 and is now preparing for an IPO to pare ₹1,376-crore of debt and fund expansion.

Unlike rivals such as Amul and other state-backed players, Milky Mist focuses on paneer, cheese and curd rather than liquid milk. With 71% of revenue still coming from the south, it is now pushing into markets such as Gujarat and Maharashtra, but success will hinge on scaling nationally while protecting margins in a fiercely competitive dairy sector.

India-Canada $50-billion trade talks

India and Canada have formally relaunched negotiations for a comprehensive economic partnership agreement, aiming to lift bilateral trade to $50 billion by 2030. The pact—signed during Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's visit to India—will span goods, services, and investment, with both sides targeting closure by the end of 2026. The talks include a C$2.6-billion uranium supply deal between Cameco and India’s Department of Atomic Energy, alongside agreements on critical minerals, clean energy, and technology.

NEWS IN NUMBERS

𝟣.𝟧–𝟤 𝗆𝗂𝗅𝗅𝗂𝗈𝗇 𝖳𝗁𝖾 𝗇𝗎𝗆𝖻𝖾𝗋 𝗈𝖿 𝖻𝖺𝗋𝗋𝖾𝗅𝗌 𝗈𝖿 𝖼𝗋𝗎𝖽𝖾 𝗈𝗂𝗅 𝖨𝗇𝖽𝗂𝖺 𝗋𝖾𝖼𝖾𝗂𝗏𝖾𝗌 𝖽𝖺𝗂𝗅𝗒 𝗏𝗂𝖺 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝖲𝗍𝗋𝖺𝗂𝗍 𝗈𝖿 𝖧𝗈𝗋𝗆𝗎𝗓, 𝖺 𝖼𝗋𝗂𝗍𝗂𝖼𝖺𝗅 𝖼𝗁𝗈𝗄𝖾𝗉𝗈𝗂𝗇𝗍 𝖽𝗂𝗌𝗋𝗎𝗉𝗍𝖾𝖽 𝖻𝗒 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝖾𝗌𝖼𝖺𝗅𝖺𝗍𝗂𝗇𝗀 𝖨𝗋𝖺𝗇–𝖴𝖲–𝖨𝗌𝗋𝖺𝖾𝗅 𝖼𝗈𝗇𝖿𝗅𝗂𝖼𝗍.

𝟣𝟫𝟢,𝟣𝟫𝟢 𝖳𝗁𝖾 𝗇𝗎𝗆𝖻𝖾𝗋 𝗈𝖿 𝗏𝖾𝗁𝗂𝖼𝗅𝖾𝗌 𝖡𝖸𝖣 𝗌𝗈𝗅𝖽 𝗂𝗇 𝖥𝖾𝖻𝗋𝗎𝖺𝗋𝗒, 𝖺 𝟦𝟣% 𝗒𝖾𝖺𝗋-𝗈𝗇-𝗒𝖾𝖺𝗋 𝖽𝗋𝗈𝗉, 𝖺𝗌 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝖾𝗑𝗍𝖾𝗇𝖽𝖾𝖽 𝖫𝗎𝗇𝖺𝗋 𝖭𝖾𝗐 𝖸𝖾𝖺𝗋 𝗁𝗈𝗅𝗂𝖽𝖺𝗒 𝗌𝗅𝗈𝗐𝖾𝖽 𝗉𝗋𝗈𝖽𝗎𝖼𝗍𝗂𝗈𝗇 𝖺𝗇𝖽 𝗋𝖾𝗍𝖺𝗂𝗅 𝖺𝖼𝗍𝗂𝗏𝗂𝗍𝗒 𝗂𝗇 𝖢𝗁𝗂𝗇𝖺.

₹𝟣,𝟢𝟢𝟢 𝖳𝗁𝖾 𝗉𝗋𝗂𝖼𝖾 𝗍𝗁𝗋𝖾𝗌𝗁𝗈𝗅𝖽 𝖻𝖾𝗅𝗈𝗐 𝗐𝗁𝗂𝖼𝗁 𝖠𝗆𝖺𝗓𝗈𝗇 𝖨𝗇𝖽𝗂𝖺 𝖽𝗈𝖾𝗌𝗇’𝗍 𝖼𝗁𝖺𝗋𝗀𝖾 𝖺𝗇𝗒 𝗌𝖾𝗅𝗅𝖾𝗋 𝖼𝗈𝗆𝗆𝗂𝗌𝗌𝗂𝗈𝗇, 𝖾𝗑𝗉𝖺𝗇𝖽𝗂𝗇𝗀 𝗂𝗍𝗌 𝖾𝖺𝗋𝗅𝗂𝖾𝗋 𝗌𝗎𝖻- ₹𝟥𝟢𝟢 𝗐𝖺𝗂𝗏𝖾𝗋 𝗍𝗈 𝖻𝗈𝗈𝗌𝗍 𝗅𝗈𝗐-𝗍𝗂𝖼𝗄𝖾𝗍 𝗈𝗇𝗅𝗂𝗇𝖾 𝗌𝖺𝗅𝖾𝗌 𝖺𝖼𝗋𝗈𝗌𝗌 𝗆𝗎𝗅𝗍𝗂𝗉𝗅𝖾 𝖼𝖺𝗍𝖾𝗀𝗈𝗋𝗂𝖾𝗌.

$𝟣.𝟫 𝖻𝗂𝗅𝗅𝗂𝗈𝗇 𝖳𝗁𝖾 𝗏𝖺𝗅𝗎𝖾 𝗈𝖿 𝖢𝖺𝗇𝖺𝖽𝖺’𝗌 𝗎𝗋𝖺𝗇𝗂𝗎𝗆 𝗌𝗎𝗉𝗉𝗅𝗒 𝖽𝖾𝖺𝗅 𝗐𝗂𝗍𝗁 𝖨𝗇𝖽𝗂𝖺 𝗎𝗇𝖽𝖾𝗋 𝖺 𝗇𝖾𝗐 𝗌𝗍𝗋𝖺𝗍𝖾𝗀𝗂𝖼 𝖾𝗇𝖾𝗋𝗀𝗒 𝗉𝖺𝗋𝗍𝗇𝖾𝗋𝗌𝗁𝗂𝗉, 𝖻𝖺𝖼𝗄𝗂𝗇𝗀 𝖨𝗇𝖽𝗂𝖺’𝗌 𝗇𝗎𝖼𝗅𝖾𝖺𝗋 𝗉𝗅𝖺𝗇𝗌 𝖺𝗇𝖽 𝗐𝗂𝖽𝖾𝗋 𝖼𝗅𝖾𝖺𝗇 𝖾𝗇𝖾𝗋𝗀𝗒 𝖼𝗈𝗈𝗉𝖾𝗋𝖺𝗍𝗂𝗈𝗇.

𝟧𝟧𝟧 𝖳𝗁𝖾 𝗇𝗎𝗆𝖻𝖾𝗋 𝗈𝖿 𝗉𝖾𝗈𝗉𝗅𝖾 𝗋𝖾𝗉𝗈𝗋𝗍𝖾𝖽 𝗄𝗂𝗅𝗅𝖾𝖽 𝗂𝗇 𝖨𝗋𝖺𝗇 𝗌𝗈 𝖿𝖺𝗋 𝖻𝗒 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝖴𝖲-𝖨𝗌𝗋𝖺𝖾𝗅𝗂 𝖺𝗂𝗋𝗌𝗍𝗋𝗂𝗄𝖾 𝖼𝖺𝗆𝗉𝖺𝗂𝗀𝗇, 𝖺𝖼𝖼𝗈𝗋𝖽𝗂𝗇𝗀 𝗍𝗈 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝖨𝗋𝖺𝗇𝗂𝖺𝗇 𝖱𝖾𝖽 𝖢𝗋𝖾𝗌𝖼𝖾𝗇𝗍 𝖲𝗈𝖼𝗂𝖾𝗍𝗒.

𝟩,𝟣𝟢𝟢 𝖼𝗋𝗈𝗋𝖾 𝖳𝗁𝖾 𝗇𝗎𝗆𝖻𝖾𝗋 𝗈𝖿 𝗌𝗉𝖺𝗆 𝖼𝖺𝗅𝗅𝗌 𝖠𝗂𝗋𝗍𝖾𝗅 𝗌𝖺𝗒𝗌 𝗂𝗍 𝗁𝖺𝗌 𝖻𝗅𝗈𝖼𝗄𝖾𝖽 𝗂𝗇 𝟣.𝟧 𝗒𝖾𝖺𝗋𝗌 𝗎𝗌𝗂𝗇𝗀 𝖠𝖨 𝗍𝗈𝗈𝗅𝗌, 𝖺𝗅𝗈𝗇𝗀𝗌𝗂𝖽𝖾 𝟤𝟫𝟢 𝖼𝗋𝗈𝗋𝖾 𝗌𝗉𝖺𝗆 𝖲𝖬𝖲𝖾𝗌, 𝖼𝗎𝗍𝗍𝗂𝗇𝗀 𝖿𝗂𝗇𝖺𝗇𝖼𝗂𝖺𝗅 𝖿𝗋𝖺𝗎𝖽 𝗅𝗈𝗌𝗌𝖾𝗌 𝖻𝗒 𝟨𝟪.𝟩%.

𝟩 𝖳𝗁𝖾 𝗇𝗎𝗆𝖻𝖾𝗋 𝗈𝖿 𝗍𝗈𝗉 𝖨𝗋𝖺𝗇𝗂𝖺𝗇 𝗌𝖾𝖼𝗎𝗋𝗂𝗍𝗒 𝗅𝖾𝖺𝖽𝖾𝗋𝗌 𝖨𝗌𝗋𝖺𝖾𝗅 𝗌𝖺𝗒𝗌 𝗂𝗍 𝖾𝗅𝗂𝗆𝗂𝗇𝖺𝗍𝖾𝖽 𝗂𝗇 𝖳𝖾𝗁𝗋𝖺𝗇, 𝖺𝗅𝗈𝗇𝗀𝗌𝗂𝖽𝖾 𝟦𝟢 𝗌𝖾𝗇𝗂𝗈𝗋 𝖼𝗈𝗆𝗆𝖺𝗇𝖽𝖾𝗋𝗌, 𝗂𝗇 𝗃𝗈𝗂𝗇𝗍 𝖴𝖲–𝖨𝗌𝗋𝖺𝖾𝗅𝗂 𝗌𝗍𝗋𝗂𝗄𝖾𝗌.

AROUND THE WORLD

• Iran is shooting at some of the world’s busiest airports
• War in Iran could cause the biggest oil shock in years
• Restaurants are changing their menus for the age of Ozempic
• Trump’s shifting goals for Iran complicate military’s mission
• Khamenei’s death leaves Iran at historic turning point

CHART OF THE DAY

Punctuality of flights at six metro airports rebounded in January after sliding for a few months. The Chennai airport led with 87.7% on-time performance, while Mumbai stayed at the bottom, below 50%.

LOUNGE RECOMMENDS

‘Hamnet’ review: Shakespeare film is moving but too cautious

Hamnet wants Shakespeare as a hook to hang its tragic story on. It wants a few details of his life. It wants a smattering of the plays. But it wants nothing to do with the language.

WHAT THE FACT

A trick that sparked panic

In April 1956, legendary Indian magician P.C. Sorcar performed his famous “sawing a woman in half” illusion live on the BBC’s Panorama.

Timing the act perfectly, the broadcast cut to a commercial right before his assistant was shown restored. Viewers across Britain were horrified, believing they had just witnessed a real killing on live television. The BBC was flooded with frantic calls, newspapers splashed the story the next day, and Sorcar’s remaining London shows promptly sold out. One of television’s earliest viral moments was, in fact, a magic trick.

Top of the Morning captures the latest in business news and stock market you need to know to start your day. Want this newsletter delivered to your inbox? Subscribe here.