The peace twist of US-Iran war, explained

Just when the world was bracing for escalation, a surprising pause came in. US President Donald Trump claims “very productive” talks with Iran are underway, and has even delayed strikes for five days. Sounds like a breakthrough, right? But Iran denies any such communication.

So, what’s really happening? Even as diplomacy is hinted at, the ground reality remains tense—missiles are being fired, the Strait of Hormuz remains vulnerable, and global oil markets are still on edge. Remember, this conflict has already disrupted a key artery that carries nearly a fifth of the world’s oil.

Is this a genuine attempt at de-escalation, or just strategic signalling? The contradiction between Washington and Tehran raises more questions than answers. For now, it’s a fragile pause in a very volatile situation. And if talks fail, the fallout could ripple far beyond West Asia, into markets, inflation, and global growth itself. Read the full story by Gulam Jeelani.

In today’s edition of Top of the Morning:

• Sebi tightens transparency
• Rupee as shock absorber
• India’s fertiliser reset amid war

THE MAIN STUFF

A gas crisis at the gates: What happens when a distant war hits your kitchen gas and factory fuel? India, which sources nearly half its LNG from West Asia, largely Qatar, is now feeling the heat.

With the Strait of Hormuz blocked and Qatar’s key facilities hit, supplies have tightened sharply. Prices are surging, imports are disrupted, and industries like fertilisers and steel are already facing cuts. The government is prioritising households, but for how long? As India scrambles to diversify sources, can it cushion the shock before it hits growth? Read on.

Monetary Policy amid War: Just a month ago, rate cuts looked almost certain. Today? It’s all about waiting. As global tensions spike and oil crosses $100, central banks—from the US Fed to the ECB—are choosing caution over action.

Why the sudden shift? Because this crisis doesn’t play by old rules. Growth is slowing, inflation risks are rising, and policymakers are stuck in between. Cut rates and risk inflation, or hike and hurt growth? For now, they’re pressing pause. Read more.

SEBI cleans house: Ever wondered who watches the market watchdog? SEBI just answered that. In a big clean-up move, it is tightening conflict-of-interest norms, forcing top officials to disclose assets, and aligning their rules with employees. A digital tracking system and whistleblower mechanism are also coming.

There’s relief for investors, too. FPI trade costs may fall and compliance rules get a rethink. The message is: more transparency, fewer loopholes. Read on.

RBI steps back: After briefly defending the rupee, the RBI is now easing off. Why the shift? Because this time, it’s a global storm. With oil surging past $100 and war-driven volatility rising, the rupee has slipped to record lows. Economists say the RBI is letting it act as a “shock absorber” while conserving reserves. But how far can it let the currency fall without stoking inflation? It’s a delicate balance, intervene too much, and reserves drain; too little, and prices rise. Read more.

From gas to farms: A war thousands of miles away, yet it could decide what ends up on your plate. With gas supplies from West Asia disrupted, India’s fertiliser lifeline is under stress. Urea production is slowing, imports are uncertain, and prices are soaring.

The government is stepping in, but will it be enough if the conflict drags on? Come Kharif season, will farmers have what they need, or will shortages push food prices higher? Read on.

NEWS IN NUMBERS

• $𝟪𝟢.𝟧 𝗆𝗂𝗅𝗅𝗂𝗈𝗇: 𝖳𝗁𝖾 𝗈𝗉𝖾𝗇𝗂𝗇𝗀‑𝗐𝖾𝖾𝗄𝖾𝗇𝖽 𝖻𝗈𝗑 𝗈𝖿𝖿𝗂𝖼𝖾 𝖼𝗈𝗅𝗅𝖾𝖼𝗍𝗂𝗈𝗇 𝗈𝖿 𝖱𝗒𝖺𝗇 𝖦𝗈𝗌𝗅𝗂𝗇𝗀’𝗌 𝖯𝗋𝗈𝗃𝖾𝖼𝗍 𝖧𝖺𝗂𝗅 𝖬𝖺𝗋𝗒, 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝗁𝗂𝗀𝗁𝖾𝗌𝗍 𝖽𝖾𝖻𝗎𝗍 𝖿𝗈𝗋 𝖠𝗆𝖺𝗓𝗈𝗇 𝖬𝖦𝖬 𝖲𝗍𝗎𝖽𝗂𝗈𝗌 𝖺𝗇𝖽 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝖻𝗂𝗀𝗀𝖾𝗌𝗍 𝗈𝗉𝖾𝗇𝗂𝗇𝗀 𝗈𝖿 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝗒𝖾𝖺𝗋 𝗌𝗈 𝖿𝖺𝗋.
• ₹𝟧𝟨𝟥.𝟦𝟧 𝖼𝗋𝗈𝗋𝖾: 𝖳𝗁𝖾 𝗏𝖺𝗅𝗎𝖾 𝗈𝖿 𝖺𝗇 𝗈𝗋𝖽𝖾𝗋 𝗌𝖾𝖼𝗎𝗋𝖾𝖽 𝖻𝗒 𝖣𝖢𝖷 𝖲𝗒𝗌𝗍𝖾𝗆𝗌 𝖿𝗈𝗋 𝗉𝗋𝗈𝖽𝗎𝖼𝗍𝗂𝗈𝗇 𝖺𝗇𝖽 𝖽𝖾𝗅𝗂𝗏𝖾𝗋𝗒 𝗈𝖿 𝖬𝖺𝗋𝗂𝗍𝗂𝗆𝖾 𝖯𝖺𝗍𝗋𝗈𝗅 𝖱𝖺𝖽𝖺𝗋 𝖲𝗒𝗌𝗍𝖾𝗆𝗌 𝖿𝗈𝗋 𝖺𝗂𝗋𝖻𝗈𝗋𝗇𝖾 𝖺𝗉𝗉𝗅𝗂𝖼𝖺𝗍𝗂𝗈𝗇𝗌.
• 𝟪𝟧𝟩: 𝖳𝗁𝖾 𝗇𝗎𝗆𝖻𝖾𝗋 𝗈𝖿 𝗅𝗂𝗇𝗄𝗌 𝗋𝖾𝗅𝖺𝗍𝖾𝖽 𝗍𝗈 𝖡𝖺𝖽𝗌𝗁𝖺𝗁’𝗌 𝗌𝗈𝗇𝗀 ‘𝖳𝖺𝗍𝖾𝖾𝗋𝖾𝖾’ 𝗍𝗁𝖺𝗍 𝗐𝖾𝗋𝖾 𝗋𝖾𝗆𝗈𝗏𝖾𝖽 𝖻𝗒 𝖧𝖺𝗋𝗒𝖺𝗇𝖺 𝖯𝗈𝗅𝗂𝖼𝖾 𝗂𝗇 𝖼𝗈𝗈𝗋𝖽𝗂𝗇𝖺𝗍𝗂𝗈𝗇 𝗐𝗂𝗍𝗁 𝗌𝗈𝖼𝗂𝖺𝗅 𝗆𝖾𝖽𝗂𝖺 𝗉𝗅𝖺𝗍𝖿𝗈𝗋𝗆𝗌, 𝗂𝗇𝖼𝗅𝗎𝖽𝗂𝗇𝗀 𝖸𝗈𝗎𝖳𝗎𝖻𝖾 𝖺𝗇𝖽 𝖨𝗇𝗌𝗍𝖺𝗀𝗋𝖺𝗆.
• $𝟤𝟤 𝗆𝗂𝗅𝗅𝗂𝗈𝗇: 𝖳𝗁𝖾 𝖽𝖺𝗆𝖺𝗀𝖾𝗌 𝖺 𝖴𝖲 𝗃𝗎𝗋𝗒 𝗈𝗋𝖽𝖾𝗋𝖾𝖽 𝗅𝗈𝗀𝗂𝗌𝗍𝗂𝖼𝗌 𝖿𝗂𝗋𝗆 𝖳𝖰𝖫 𝗍𝗈 𝗉𝖺𝗒 𝗂𝗇 𝖺 𝖼𝖺𝗌𝖾 𝗂𝗇𝗏𝗈𝗅𝗏𝗂𝗇𝗀 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝖽𝖾𝖺𝗍𝗁 𝗈𝖿 𝖺 𝗇𝖾𝗐𝖻𝗈𝗋𝗇 𝖺𝖿𝗍𝖾𝗋 𝖽𝖾𝗇𝗒𝗂𝗇𝗀 𝖺 𝗉𝗋𝖾𝗀𝗇𝖺𝗇𝗍 𝖾𝗆𝗉𝗅𝗈𝗒𝖾𝖾’𝗌 𝗂𝗇𝗂𝗍𝗂𝖺𝗅 𝗋𝖾𝗊𝗎𝖾𝗌𝗍 𝗍𝗈 𝗐𝗈𝗋𝗄 𝖿𝗋𝗈𝗆 𝗁𝗈𝗆𝖾.
• 𝟤.𝟥𝟤%: 𝖩𝖺𝗉𝖺𝗇’𝗌 𝟣𝟢‑𝗒𝖾𝖺𝗋 𝖻𝗈𝗇𝖽 𝗒𝗂𝖾𝗅𝖽 𝖺𝗌 𝗈𝖿 𝖬𝗈𝗇𝖽𝖺𝗒, 𝗎𝗉 𝗌𝗂𝗑 𝖻𝖺𝗌𝗂𝗌 𝗉𝗈𝗂𝗇𝗍𝗌 𝖺𝗇𝖽 𝗇𝖾𝖺𝗋 𝗂𝗍𝗌 𝗁𝗂𝗀𝗁𝖾𝗌𝗍 𝗅𝖾𝗏𝖾𝗅 𝗌𝗂𝗇𝖼𝖾 𝟣𝟫𝟫𝟫, 𝖺𝗆𝗉𝗅𝗂𝖿𝗒𝗂𝗇𝗀 𝖼𝖺𝗎𝗍𝗂𝗈𝗇 𝗂𝗇 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝖾𝗊𝗎𝗂𝗍𝗒 𝗆𝖺𝗋𝗄𝖾𝗍.
• $𝟤𝟩𝟪 𝖻𝗂𝗅𝗅𝗂𝗈𝗇: 𝖳𝗁𝖾 𝖼𝗈𝗆𝖻𝗂𝗇𝖾𝖽 𝗏𝖺𝗅𝗎𝖾 𝗈𝖿 𝖥𝖺𝗇𝗇𝗂𝖾 𝖬𝖺𝖾 𝖺𝗇𝖽 𝖥𝗋𝖾𝖽𝖽𝗂𝖾 𝖬𝖺𝖼’𝗌 𝗋𝖾𝗍𝖺𝗂𝗇𝖾𝖽 𝗆𝗈𝗋𝗍𝗀𝖺𝗀𝖾 𝗉𝗈𝗋𝗍𝖿𝗈𝗅𝗂𝗈𝗌 𝖺𝗌 𝗈𝖿 𝖩𝖺𝗇𝗎𝖺𝗋𝗒, 𝗎𝗉 𝖿𝗋𝗈𝗆 $𝟣𝟧𝟪 𝖻𝗂𝗅𝗅𝗂𝗈𝗇 𝗂𝗇 𝗅𝖺𝗍𝖾 𝟤𝟢𝟤𝟤.
• ₹𝟣,𝟢𝟣,𝟧𝟤𝟩 𝖼𝗋𝗈𝗋𝖾: 𝖳𝗁𝖾 𝗍𝗈𝗍𝖺𝗅 𝖿𝗈𝗋𝖾𝗂𝗀𝗇 𝗉𝗈𝗋𝗍𝖿𝗈𝗅𝗂𝗈 𝗂𝗇𝗏𝖾𝗌𝗍𝗈𝗋 𝗈𝗎𝗍𝖿𝗅𝗈𝗐𝗌 𝖿𝗋𝗈𝗆 𝖨𝗇𝖽𝗂𝖺𝗇 𝗆𝖺𝗋𝗄𝖾𝗍𝗌 𝗌𝗈 𝖿𝖺𝗋 𝗂𝗇 𝟤𝟢𝟤𝟨 𝖺𝗆𝗂𝖽 𝗀𝗅𝗈𝖻𝖺𝗅 𝗎𝗇𝖼𝖾𝗋𝗍𝖺𝗂𝗇𝗍𝗂𝖾𝗌, 𝗁𝗂𝗀𝗁 𝖼𝗋𝗎𝖽𝖾 𝗉𝗋𝗂𝖼𝖾𝗌 𝖺𝗇𝖽 𝖺 𝗐𝖾𝖺𝗄𝖾𝗇𝗂𝗇𝗀 𝗋𝗎𝗉𝖾𝖾.

AROUND THE WORLD

• What young workers are doing to AI-proof themselves
• The Iranian prisons where bombs are threatening dissidents and Americans
• The Fed’s most awkward leadership transition in coming
• Donald Trump has four bad options for the war in Iran
• Investors are fleeing private credit. What the funds should do now.

CHART OF THE DAY

India's aviation sector has recovered after the slowdown in December 2025 due to disruptions from new shift rules for pilots. Activity is now near pre-crisis levels. Most top airports have recovered, with those in Delhi and Mumbai exceeding earlier levels.

LOUNGE RECOMMENDS

Lakme Fashion Week 2026: Aneeth Arora’s Péro show on 22 March captured the mood of this year’s Lakmé Fashion Week, in collaboration with the Fashion Design Council of India: getting dressed should be easy.

Over four days, 20-plus designers presented clothes you could wear tomorrow without overthinking, without the need to renegotiate your existing wardrobe, and most importantly, without compromising on your personal style. Read more.

WHAT THE FACT

The germ theory took shape: On this day in 1882, Robert Koch changed medicine forever. Speaking at the Berlin Physiological Society, he revealed the bacterium behind tuberculosis, a disease then causing 1 in 7 deaths in Europe and the US. In doing so, he shattered dominant beliefs like spontaneous generation and the miasma theory.

Koch showed proof, presenting stained tissue samples of the bacteria he had cultivated. Weeks later, his findings were published, laying the foundation for modern microbiology. Even today, his work remains central to how we identify disease-causing microorganisms, and understand how infections truly spread.

Edited by Alokesh Bhattacharyya. Produced by Tushar Deep Singh.

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