It has been quite a week in foreign policy, with developments offering a glimpse into the pressures—and contradictions—shaping the US and its relationships with allies and rivals.
US President Donald Trump’s security team was so spooked by intelligence assessments of an Iranian assassination plot that Trump swapped planes as he flew out of the NATO security summit in Turkey last month. In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected Trump’s plan to disarm Hamas in Gaza, an unusual public rebuke from one of the US president’s closest allies.
Closer home, India-China ties have shown signs of fresh strain even as the two countries cautiously try to rebuild relations after the 2020 Galwan clash. And just as India-US ties were beginning to look more settled, a new US report has put India in the crosshairs over alleged Chinese tariff evasion.
First, the astonishing details of how Trump left Ankara.
Trump boarded Air Force One last month as he left the NATO summit, only to secretly exit the aircraft and hide in a catering truck that took him to another plane, which flew him to the UK. The story was first reported by the Washington Post.
Senior White House officials and journalists boarded the familiar powder blue-and-white aircraft, one of two highly customised Boeing 747-200B series planes that ferry the US president. The elaborate stratagem ensured that many people, including those who boarded Air Force One in Ankara, were unaware that Trump was not on the aircraft that took off from Turkey.
According to the White House website, Air Force One is capable of refuelling mid-air and therefore has unlimited range. Its onboard electronics are hardened to protect against an electromagnetic pulse, and it is equipped with advanced secure communications that allow the aircraft to function as a mobile command centre. It is also equipped with countermeasures to repel missile attacks.
So what, or where, was the problem?
Well, part of the problem was that Trump prefers to use a Qatari-gifted aircraft as his new Air Force One rather than the two older Boeing aircraft mentioned above. The $400 million Qatari aircraft is one of the most expensive foreign gifts ever given to the US, an Axios report said last year. But the luxury jumbo jet does not have many of the safety features of the original two Boeing aircraft.
Trump had flown into Ankara for the NATO summit in the Qatar-gifted plane. On departure, he boarded an older Air Force One jet that was on standby, then secretly exited it to board a third aircraft—a smaller C-32A that took him to the UK. The older Air Force One, meanwhile, was used as a decoy.
Journalists said the older aircraft, which the media boarded, used the call sign “Air Force One” to keep the deception intact. Once in the UK, Trump was seen exiting the older Air Force One, albeit after a time lag—probably the time it took to transfer from the smaller military plane to Air Force One.
Some reports said Israel had tipped off the Secret Service about an assassination plot in which Iran was to use shoulder-fired missiles to target Trump’s plane. That Trump ditched his new Qatari ride—and then his older, safety-configured Air Force One—for a smaller aircraft shows that the threat was considered credible and serious enough to warrant the swap. No chances taken.
That speaks volumes about the perceived threat from Iran and its possible capacity to carry it out, doesn’t it? Especially after decades of sanctions and pariah status.
Trump had earlier said he was Iran’s “number one target” during the summit in Ankara. On Tuesday (11 August), Trump confirmed the aircraft swap. For the flight from the UK to the US, Trump used his favourite Qatar-donated Air Force One, reports added.
Now to Israel
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected a US-backed 15-point peace plan for Gaza, marking a rare public break with his country’s closest ally, US President Donald Trump, the Guardian reported.
In a statement on 9 August, Netanyahu said he was confronting a “wave of rumours about Israeli weakness and Israeli withdrawals on all fronts” and rebuked US pressure to end wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran without Israel’s consent.
“Israel does not accept the 15-point document. The IDF (Israeli Defence Forces) will not carry out any withdrawal until Hamas is disarmed. And when I say the disarming of Hamas, it means heavy weaponry, lighter weaponry, all weaponry. And we are talking about genuine disarmament, not fictitious disarmament. Right now, we are talking with the Americans about this issue,” Netanyahu said.
Trump’s Board of Peace last month put forward the 15-point plan, which provided for Hamas’s disarmament in exchange for Israel’s full military withdrawal from Gaza and an eventual transition of power to an independent Palestinian National Committee. Trump had said the agreement would be implemented in stages. Netanyahu, however, said on Sunday that he wanted full disarmament first in order to implement the deal.
The reason for Netanyahu’s position isn’t hard to understand. He faces tough elections in October, ahead of which he wants to build on his reputation as a defender of Israel. Then there is pressure from hardliners in his own government. Against this backdrop, Netanyahu seems to have concluded that annoying Trump is the lesser evil of the two.
The head of Trump’s Board of Peace, Nickolay Mladenov, meanwhile, said the plan remained the “only way forward.”
Netanyahu’s rejection of the peace plan is a blow to Trump’s desire to be seen as a peace broker and a solver of foreign conflicts. Trump claims that he has solved at least 8-10 conflicts worldwide, and has repeatedly claimed he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize.
His immediate headache, though, is the US midterm elections due in November. The US president would like to show that he has a peace deal with Iran that reopens the Strait of Hormuz, which in turn would bring down oil prices. Finding a solution to the Gaza conflict is intertwined with this, as is bringing peace to Lebanon, parts of which Israel has occupied to build a buffer zone against Hezbollah.
A look at India-China ties
Reports of another standoff have emerged, this time in Arunachal Pradesh, which China claims as Southern Tibet, or the Chinese territory of Zangnan.
In a move typical of China, it has sought to play down the matter, with a foreign ministry official saying the “border situation is generally stable”. But India’s Ministry of External Affairs said the state of affairs along the border has ramifications for overall ties. It also said the two sides had agreed to use diplomatic and military mechanisms to “avoid misunderstanding and miscalculation” along the border.
India has not officially confirmed the standoff. But news reports have quoted “people familiar with the situation”, speaking “on condition of anonymity”, as saying that problems emerged in the remote Taksing area of Upper Subansiri district in early July and that there had been several face-offs between Indian and Chinese troops.
All this comes as ties were cautiously being restored to normal after the 2020 Galwan clash, which saw relations plunge to a six-decade low. Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit India next month for the BRICS Summit, his first visit since the 2019 Mamallapuram Summit with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which possibly explains India’s caution.
China expert Manoj Joshi says India-China relations are in a category of their own in a world that has at least two major conflicts under way. The two countries are rebuilding ties while troops from both sides remain mobilised along the border.
The most important fact about India-China ties is their growing asymmetry, he said in an opinion piece in the Hindustan Times. This asymmetry is impinging on the military balance between the two, he warned.
This is something India needs to take note of—a whole-of-society approach. Emphasis on quality manufacturing, increased investment in R&D, developing indigenous technology and innovation, besides education, would be a good place to start.
Trouble between India and the US again?
A new White House report has named India as a major part of a “shadow transhipment network” that has allowed Chinese goods facing high US tariffs to enter the US market after being rerouted through third countries facing lower tariffs.
The report, entitled the “Great Transhipment Scam”, estimates the value of potential illegal transhipment at roughly $60 billion, costing the US government tens of billions of dollars in lost tariff revenue.
India is apparently part of a network of about 40 countries enabling this “transhipment network”. But it is in Tier 1, meaning it is deemed to be causing serious harm to the US economy.
Any wonder why the India-US trade deal is still unsigned?