Several old assumptions no longer hold good but this disruption also offers India new opportunities
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The conflict in Ukraine has crystallized a phenomenon that has gradually been developing after the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008. Until the GFC, measures of globalization in terms of trade, capital flows and networks had been increasing, even accelerating. Since then, those indicators have begun to paint a mixed picture. During the same period, a long trend of disinflation that had begun in the 1980s also began to plateau, as the US Federal Reserve quadrupled its balance sheet from about $1 trillion to some $4.5 trillion over a 10-year period after the GFC. More recently, in response to the covid pandemic, the Fed increased its balance sheet to about $9 trillion in a very short period, triggering fears of sustained inflation. The central banks of other Western countries have generally followed the same approach, though not to the same extent.
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