BackAn optimization challenge for the British Conservative party
It isn’t easy for UK Tories to pick a PM who’ll serve their interests
PremiumA short time before voting closed in the latest elimination round of the Tory leadership contest, Michael Gove, a Conservative Party heavyweight whom Boris Johnson sacked from his cabinet before his own downfall, made the case for Kemi Badenoch. He called Badenoch his “intellectual superior" who had three things the next leader needed: “courage, conviction and clarity." Either the bulk of Tory MPs didn’t see the same qualities in Badenoch or they decided they can get them elsewhere. After Tuesday’s vote, there are three possibilities for Britain’s next prime minister—and Badenoch isn’t one.
The next bit sounds straightforward. Conservative MPs will whittle the final list—of Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss and Penny Mordaunt—down to two on Wednesday. Then they give the party membership base six weeks to pick the next PM. But that last cut is the hardest to make.
The problem is not simply that it’s hard to name a single candidate with the charisma to repeat Johnson’s electoral successes, the gravitas to elevate the party above the damage he did to the Tory brand and the experience to manage the problems the country faces from the cost-of-living crisis to the war in Ukraine. Tories are realistic. Johnson was unique in many ways, but other candidates bring strengths that couldn’t shine when he hogged all the limelight; and they don’t call it cabinet government for nothing.
The Tories know that perfection doesn’t exist; the problem is they just can’t agree what they’re optimizing for in the next leader. Is it governing experience? If so, then Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss—the big two left from Johnson’s cabinet—are the best candidates to put to voters. And yet, to look at both is to recall their close ties to the Johnson era, even if Sunak had resigned.
If MPs want a choice that also optimizes for charisma and voter appeal, something Johnson had in spades, then it will be hard to leave Liz Truss in the final two, no matter how authoritative she seems. Truss polls extremely well among Tory members, but isn’t the most appealing of candidates.
Given the cost-of-living crisis and rising inflation, you’d think MPs would place a premium on a candidate with the most compelling economic plan. After all, the next leader takes over a medium-sized global power and G7 economy. That’s a high bar for the less experienced Mordaunt, who’s not done much to dispel the sense that her economic policy views lack detail. Whether that’s tactical or she just hasn’t had time to think through these things, despite a book she wrote, is not clear.
If Mordaunt has a credibility problem and Truss a relatability problem, then Sunak faces a bigger hurdle in the final run: It’s called the Daily Mail, a tabloid that is gospel for many party members (along with the Daily Telegraph) and has attacked Sunak’s economic record pretty ferociously.
Given the string of scandals that brought Johnson down, and the deep loss of public trust, the party may decide it must optimize foremost for character. Sunak and Truss both score high on personal integrity. Mordaunt wins points as a Royal Navy reservist who worked to support her family as a teenager after her mother’s death from cancer. But loyalty is also a quality Tories like to reward and Sunak’s decision to walk away from Johnson’s cabinet won’t be lost.
And you can keep playing this game of what to optimize for. The MP fighting to get Brexit done by reneging on the Northern Ireland Protocol might think its safest with Truss. The MP looking for a candidate able to unite a party divided into various tribes may give Mordaunt a shot. And all of this is before you factor in the careerism that is never far from consideration (i.e., who is most likely to give me a ministerial job?).
Badenoch’s rise and exit at this stage are good signs—she will be vocal in future Tory contests and likely find a role in government. But her zigzagging statements on the net-zero climate pledge indicates she’s less the conviction-politician than Gove’s salesmanship suggests. I suspect it would suit Sunak best to match up his wits, experience and command of detail against Mordaunt’s slick but so far somewhat vacuous offering. There’s a chance that with greater scrutiny, Mordaunt’s campaign could falter, leaving Sunak a clear path to No. 10. If she rose to the occasion, voters would get a true choice between two very different political personalities and backgrounds.
A Sunak-Truss battle, on the other hand, might leave too much blue blood on the carpet for the party’s liking by the end. Already, the debates have given the Labour party a pretty impressive free ad.
What should the UK’s Conservative Party optimize for? Integrity, competence and a clear governing vision. It seems simple. But one of Johnson’s enduring legacies is he won big by promising something for everyone. The reality check is rough. Decisions, decisions.
Therese Raphael is a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion covering health care and British politics.
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