Political drama peaks in Bihar assembly race

In the past two decades, Bihar has coined a fresh adage—power follows where Nitish Kumar tilts. This is why, despite the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) growing tendency to sideline its alliance partners, it’s content being the junior partner of Nitish’s Janata Dal (United), or JDU, in the state. Even Nitish’s ‘elder brother’, Lalu Prasad Yadav, faces the same predicament.

Any party that’s not with Nitish would spew venom against him but secretly pines to ally with him. This is why Lalu joined hands with Nitish in 2022 even after a bitter split in 2017. During the two Mahagathbandhan stints, the BJP leaders kept vowing publicly that they will never ever ally with Nitish. However, today they are readying themselves to face the assembly elections with their “natural partner" for the third time in the state.

How did Nitish emerge as the talisman of poll victory in Bihar?

Let’s go back 20 years in time. In 2005 when he became the chief minister he dedicated himself to maintaining law and order, improving the quality of roads, electricity supply, transport and education. In 2006 he launched “school chalo" abhiyan (Let’s go to school), distributing bicycles to young school girls. This was the beginning of a silent revolution. In 2005, just 180,000 girls appeared for class 10th exams. This year more than half of the 1.585 million children appearing for high school exams were girls.

He was also the first to launch a programme to provide everyone with a house and water connection but couldn’t succeed. Even today, Bihar struggles with migration issues and ranks low across human development indices. For various reasons Nitish’s third and fourth terms weren’t as effective. This time, he’s been under attack from many fronts, with his health under scanner. It would be interesting to see whether he secures more seats than before. JDU is facing a slow but sure attrition of its cadre. It needs Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) or the BJP to go past the victory line.

This is why the Nitish government has transferred ₹10,000 each in the bank accounts of 7.5 million women and announced a flurry of doles. Can he return to power based on goodies he has doled out since June this year?

His main rival Tejashwi Yadav performed brilliantly in the last elections. His Mahagathbandhan lost the elections by mere 16,825 votes. He still enjoys the support of the Congress and the Left parties. Despite his own weak vote base, Rahul Gandhi tried to boost Tejashwi’s position during his yatra.

However, ambitions of his associates and family now threaten Tejashwi’s march to the CM’s office. Right now a slugfest is on within the Mahagathbandhan over seat-sharing. In the end, however, all the alliance partners will fight the elections together. The new voter list issued by the Election Commission saw 6.9 million voters removed and 2.1 million new ones added. For months, the Mahagathbandhan has been making it a political issue. Still, the NDA’s (National Democratic Alliance’s) caste strategy and government doles leave the voter’s choice uncertain, heightening political suspense.

Another factor in the coming elections is Prashant Kishor. He came to prominence in 2013 as Narendra Modi’s election manager. Until then, politicians avoided publicly associating with professional campaign firms. His company has since worked with the Congress, YSR Congress, Trinamool Congress, Aam Aadmi Party, DMK, and even helped Nitish Kumar win Bihar elections.

He organized rigorous padyatras in Bihar’s every district. In the last one year, he has traversed the state, meeting people and staying overnight in villages. Prashant has been attacking Nitish, BJP and Lalu in the same breath. He’s attracting large crowds and his coffers are surprisingly full. Will he be able to form the government or be the kingmaker in case of a hung assembly?

Let’s also mention the BJP. The saffron party has the ablest organization and strongest caste calculation. Chirag Paswan, Jitan Ram Manjhi and Upendra Kushwaha along with JDU make for a formidable alliance. Last time, the BJP won more than twice the number of seats compared to JDU and yet couldn’t push its own CM candidate. The lack of a credible face is its biggest weakness in the state. Sooner or later the party will have to take a tough call on this issue. It will have to upset the age-old relations with its allies and local leaders. As the adage goes, a lion coils before a leap. Is the BJP doing the same? Bihar is entering in an interesting phase. The assembly elections are set to go down to the wire, but the real game begins once the dust settles and the final tally is in.

Shashi Shekhar is editor-in-chief, Hindustan. Views are personal.