The seductive beauty of Indian democracy is that it always moves from one election to another as a relay race. For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the heady feeling of a landslide victory in West Bengal hadn’t subsided and it has already started laying the groundwork for the coming voter fest. Elections in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Manipur and Goa in 2027 will decide the political fate of regional parties, leaders and political families.
For example, the contest between the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the BJP alliance in Uttar Pradesh would be quite interesting to watch. SP supremo Akhilesh Yadav is leaving no stone unturned to win the election. He knows that any regional party that loses three elections in a row can’t keep its flock together. But the path ahead isn’t exactly littered with roses. He’s pitted against a towering political rival, Yogi Adityanath. Along with establishing a successful law and order system, he enjoys a great deal of traction among the majority voters.
For Mayawati, too, it would be a decisive battle. The Bahujan Samaj Party has been in the doldrums after winning a landslide in the 2007 assembly election. To attract the younger generation, she has fielded her nephew, Akash Anand, as her deputy. If the experiment fails, she’ll face a double whammy. She will have to face defeat and allegations of nepotism.
The Badals in Punjab suffer the same political fate. Since losing power in 2017, their vote share has steadily declined. Due to the old age of the party supremo, Parkash Singh Badal, the Shiromani Akali Dal’s (SAD) command went to his son Sukhbir. Sukhbir was accused of amassing fabulous wealth by controlling a commercial vehicle fleet, regional media houses and vast tracts of land. In 2015, accusations of desecrating Guru Granth Sahib surfaced, and that led the Shiromani Akali Dal on a path of political decline. This was a big blow to their political fortunes.
During Sukhbir’s reign, the drug trade in Punjab broke all records. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) made it an election issue in 2017 and won 20 seats, pushing the SAD to an embarrassing third spot. In the 2022 assembly election, the AAP won 92 out of 117 seats and formed the government. This was the first time that the SAD shrank to just three seats. Even Prakash Singh Badal and Sukhbir lost their seats.
The farmers’ protest-induced split between the BJP and the SAD still exists. This time, the BJP has announced that it would fight the Punjab election on its own, making it a four-cornered fight. For the Congress, which ruled the state until 2022, the road isn’t easy. For the AAP, it’s a fight for survival as its chief minister is embroiled in a sacrilege controversy.
In Uttarakhand, the BJP has been in power since 2017. A young Pushkar Singh Dhami is in the saddle as chief minister. He’s known for taking quick, decisive action. BJP president Nitin Nabin has publicly declared that the election would be fought under the leadership of Dhami. It has had a positive impact on the workers.
For the Congress, even Uttarakhand would be a tough test. The party has tried to rejuvenate demoralized workers by making firebrand leader Ganesh Godiyal the state party chief. But senior leaders like Harish Rawat keep creating hurdles, and it remains to be seen whether Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge can take decisive action like the BJP.
The situation in Manipur and Goa is quite interesting. It doesn’t matter who forms the government in these states; a handful of powerful families keep calling the shots. At times, husband and wife fought and won on the tickets from opposing parties. In these states, the voter numbers are very low, which helps political parties keep their flock under tight control.
However, with the fall of Tejaswi Yadav, Mamta Banerjee, M.K. Stalin, Uddhav Thackrey, Sukhbir Badal and Sharad Pawar, can we safely say that the days of family-run political parties that would bargain mercilessly at the national level are over? We would get a clear answer in Lucknow. If Akhilesh Yadav wins the assembly elections, he would become a beacon of hope for family-run parties. If he fails, then the chances of a powerful alliance led by the Congress taking on the BJP alliance are bright.
This is why every party is ready to do anything to win the upcoming elections. We should brace ourselves for new surprises and some ugly incidents. The last few elections are a testimony to this fact.
Shashi Shekhar is the editor-in-chief of Hindustan. Views are personal.