The country has overcome growth restraints over the decades and should now turn its energy transition into an opportunity
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High global oil prices have once again put the Indian economy under pressure. It is likely that India will end the current fiscal year with a balance of payments deficit of around $60 billion. That will be manageable, especially given the buffer of foreign exchange reserves with the Indian central bank. There is little reason for overblown fears right now. However, whether the stress increases or decreases will depend on how global oil prices move in the months ahead in tandem with slower global economic growth, as well as the response of international investors to the ongoing monetary tightening by many central banks. Neither is easy to predict, given the volatile geopolitical situation.
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