The course seems set for coming general election

The first two days of the monsoon session of Parliament have made it abundantly clear that the course is set for the forthcoming general elections. Constituents of INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) seemed to be working together rather well. Should the direction of the upcoming election months be made clear by this newfound solidarity?

There will undoubtedly be more questions. Is the NDA vs INDIA battle being fought on values? Is it a power struggle, or a battle of ideologies?

So, when Mayawati, the Bahujan Samaj Party leader, called a news conference, reporters already knew what was in the offing. They had a sense that Mayawati was going to contest alone. Her decision will have a significant impact on her home state. She will try to form another Dalit-Muslim alliance like she has always done. It will directly impact the Congress-Samajwadi Party combination. To display her power, she intends to contest the coming assembly elections alone. It will be interesting to observe how it will impact Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh.

Mayawati is not alone. Naveen Patnaik of Odisha, Jagan Mohan Reddy of Andhra Pradesh, K. Chandrashekar Rao, and Deve Gowda, the father-son duo of Janata Dal (Secular) are on the same page. It makes sense why neither the NDA nor INDIA asked her to join. However, it is impossible to overlook her impact on the general election. A direct fight for New Delhi will unquestionably be affected by the presence of a third party. All these leaders are aware of their strengths and use them to keep their voter base from shifting to national parties. Also, they would have the opportunity to make a great fortune if the government in New Delhi ever became weak.

Is it a mistake for INDIA to isolate her?

Definitely not. Take Uttar Pradesh for example. Opposition leaders in UP are unsure that their votes will be fully transferred, even if Mayawati joins INDIA. The 2019 elections proved that such an attempt would fail. But then, how did the RJD-JD-U coalition fare in Bihar in 2015? Politics is a game of odds. Nobody can predict with absolute confidence which equation will eventually come out on top.

This explains why both coalitions have their contradictions. While the NDA has grown, how will it manage to balance three swords in large states such as Maharashtra and Bihar? The BJP’s steel structure has occasionally developed cracks. In the assembly elections, the party took the biggest hit from this. Can it be recovered in time? In India, there are such challenges at every turn. Samajwadi Party, Congress, and RLD in Uttar Pradesh; Congress, Nationalist Congress Party (Sharad Pawar group), and Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray) in Maharashtra; Congress, Left, and Trinamool in Bengal; JD-U, RJD, and Congress in Bihar; and Congress, Left, and RLD in Bengal. The NDA has the resources of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh and a strong personality like Narendra Modi. There are undoubtedly significant regional Goliaths in INDIA, but they still need to select a coordinator or a face. Additionally, Modi has been stirring a potent political cocktail of Hindutva, nationalism, and Indianness. It will be up to INDIA to develop a “counter narrative”. To win the election, you always need political chemistry and maths.

Some additional points should be made here. Is there a reason why cities such as Patna, Bengaluru, and Mumbai were chosen? Mallikarjun Kharge played the primary role in Karnataka, while Nitish Kumar played it in Patna. Will this be played in Mumbai by Sharad Pawar or Uddhav Thackeray? Both Patna and Mumbai are outside the Congress umbrella. Is there any attempt to reach out to the scattered anti-BJP voters through these meetings? This endeavour will be effective only if Congress gives regional parties significant leeway. Is Congress willing to make a genuine concession in order to woo its allies?

Another point is worth highlighting. When these leaders addressed the press in Patna, mutual tension was evident. Kejriwal had already left. His party’s spokespersons in New Delhi, on the other hand, were making their demands public. As a result, many rumours began to circulate. This never happened in Bengaluru. All faces looked happy and confident. Some decisions were also made this time, but INDIA still has a long way to go.

INDIA’s leaders must keep one thing in mind. NDA will continue to widen the gap over time. Whatever they have to do, they must do it quickly. Is the meeting in Mumbai going to be decisive in this matter?

Shashi Shekhar is editor-in-chief, Hindustan. Views are personal.