Myopia and behavioural biases have led us to sorrow
How did we get here? About a year ago, when the US, UK, Italy and Spain were seeing a surge of covid cases overburden their health infrastructure, India was doing much better
It is a time of palpable desperation—filled with scary stories and disturbing images. Social-media feeds are predominantly queries about hospital beds, oxygen, medication and even medical advice. In the international press, India has become synonymous with funeral pyres. Prayers are as much in play as the quest for medical treatment. A particularly difficult part of today’s situation in India is not just the grief and despair caused by death, but the uncertainty and dread with which the living must face every day.
How did we get here? About a year ago, when the US, UK, Italy and Spain were seeing thousands of new cases of covid overburden their health infrastructure, India was doing much better. Those of us who had witnessed the situation in the US, especially the worst-affected areas such as New York and New Jersey, prayed that this wouldn’t happen in India. We knew that if the situation were half as bad in India, the consequences would be fatal, and Indian doctors were predicting as much. Thankfully, while we may not have done well economically, from an epidemiological viewpoint, we were able to avert disaster during the first wave of infections last year. We implemented what was possibly the strictest lockdown in the world, had low casualties, and the world praised India for its pandemic management. The same people and their leaders who got the credit for this are also responsible for the current situation.
A lockdown functions like an air-conditioner in summer. The room becomes pleasant while it is working, but it does not make summer go away. A lockdown is meant to provide temporary relief to the health infrastructure, prevent rapid transmission, and buy time to get ready for the future. The reduction in the pandemic’s intensity follows mechanically from a lockdown; there is nothing special about it. But it does not mean that the virus has gone away.
Unfortunately, Indian politics kicked in, and also a variety of behavioural phenomena, like myopic conduct, confirmation bias, optimism bias and hyperbolic discounting, leading the country down this catastrophic course. Politicians tend to be myopic by nature, as they typically only care about next election. So, it served the narrative of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which was still smarting from 2020-21’s economic contraction, to declare that India had defeated the virus, suggesting that life could go on as usual. For the sake of power, election rallies were held in several states for weeks, religious gatherings were allowed, and normalcy was signalled. No long-term strategy was in place to anticipate alternate possible future scenarios and deal with probable future waves. This is not to say the BJP does not have a long-term vision for India. It does, with Hinduism envisioned as the dominant force. But in this instance, both the long- and short-term vision appear to have got dovetailed. The people, meanwhile, were raring to go, after the harsh lockdowns. So, such messaging resonated with them. Several unfortunate behavioural patterns were to follow.
Confirmation bias, or the tendency to interpret information to suit our prior beliefs, implied that people bought into narratives of superior Indian genes and higher immunity of Indians, and into the military propaganda-style victory over the virus. Some of these claims may well be true, but there is currently no scientific proof for them. At the same time, most of us suffer from optimism bias, which makes us think bad things can never happen to us. This led to dropping of safety protocols like social distancing, avoiding crowded spaces and wearing masks. There was also a role played by hyperbolic discounting, which happens when we care about today much more than the future. If a particular activity reduces our utility today for higher utility in the future, we generally avoid it. This is one reason why we procrastinate and avoid things like cleaning the house and quitting smoking. Driven by the need for instant gratification, Indians went on vacations, organized parties and held large weddings.
Before people take any risky action in this pandemic, they ought to ask themselves two big questions: Is it worth dying for? Is it worth putting my family at risk?
Finally, we have a tendency to hold someone else responsible for the outcomes of our own actions. This is the self-attribution bias. When things go well, we take credit, but if not, we blame someone else for failing to provide the right conditions. We cannot blame past regimes: voters must evaluate the government in power, since counter-factuals cannot solve problems. The Centre and states can’t pass the buck to each other either for their combined failures of coordination. Actually, it is citizens who have a greater responsibility, for it is an electorate’s pressure that must push against political myopia, without falling for the self-attribution bias.
Today, we could show our patriotism not by forwarding social media posts shifting the blame to others or acquitting our favourite political party, but by following covid-safety protocols, lending a helping hand to those in need, and supporting those who have put their lives at risk to protect fellow citizens.
Chandan K. Jha & Sudipta Sarangi are, respectively, teacher of economics and finance at Le Moyne College, and teacher of economics at Virginia Tech and author of ‘The Economics of Small Things’.
Catch all the Business News, Market News, Breaking News Events and Latest News Updates on Live Mint. Download The Mint News App to get Daily Market Updates.
MoreLess
First Published:6 May 2021, 11:54 PM IST
- Top Gainers
- Top Losers
- 52 Week High