BackOpinion | War clouds: Write your Will to show support
Write your Will to say that not just those in uniform, but the civilians too are prepared
PremiumIndia has finally retaliated to Pakistan’s policy of a 1000 cuts to bleed India to death. It now looks as if the 1000th cut was Pulwama. The line of no reaction was crossed and Indian bombers carried out strikes to take out terrorist lairs in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) on Tuesday. India’s official line is that the strike was pre-emptive to the threat of other large-scale terrorist attacks in India. The days after Pulwama were heavy with anticipation of imminent action from India. It did seem that this time was going to be different. Turning the other cheek looked to be no longer an option. Post the strike, the first rush of reaction is still unfolding. It is a mix of pride, gratitude and vindication. But seeping in are other worries that some people are beginning to articulate. Will Pakistan retaliate? Will they press the nuclear button? Will we suffer? And then, questions about the economy and markets.
The easier question first: what is the impact of a war on an economy? There was a belief that the Great Depression of the 1930s in the US was cured by World War II. The argument goes that a war triggers additional spending on damaged infrastructure, on weapons, supplies and more drafting into the armed forces. This boosts spending and, therefore, the economy. But there is little academic evidence to show that wars are good for the economy. Economists use the “broken window fallacy" to disprove the belief that wars trigger an economic boom. A broken window in a shop will generate work for the glass maker, the window fixer for sure, but the money the shopkeeper is forced to spend on the broken window is money he would have either spent on himself, saved or ploughed back into his business. All of these would have triggered work or investment as well. Unless the money was sitting in a hole in the ground and not being used, the spend on the broken window is harmful. In fact, wars are inflationary, they take resources away from other uses and cause loss of human lives.
So will a possible war with Pakistan derail the Indian economy? It looks very unlikely for a $2.6 trillion economy that is growing at over 7%. We should be prepared for volatility of the markets, but not expect any long-term impact on the markets. What a war will do to the Pakistan economy is another story altogether, but thankfully we are on this side of the border. Older people in families are worried. They remember the war with Pakistan in 1971 and worry about food and supplies rationing. As a small kid I remember we used to have black-out nights. Every night the black-out curtains were drawn so that enemy airstrikes would not see where the lights were and bomb us. The sound of the air sirens were blood chilling, even while we made games about shooting enemies in local parks. The elders remember the shortages of food and supplies. The country anyway had less food and rationing was the norm of the day. The country has moved on hugely since then—your daily supplies will not be hit.
The tougher question now: so why write our Wills? For two reasons. To show support to the armed forces and to use this event as a trigger to do something you have been postponing. Remember, it is easy for those whose families are not in the armed forces to talk about war and egg each other on. We all know what happens on social media, on WhatsApp groups of family and friends, in terms of posturing and war mongering. But with war between two nuclear countries, the possibility of a nuclear strike is real, though the probability is low. Causing civilian deaths in today’s world will be hard to justify for Pakistan. Remember, India has bombed the terrorist hideouts that Pakistan said did not exist. But there are war clouds hovering, so use this trigger to write your Will. It is an action not just to secure your family’s future but also a mark of support to those who fly the fighter jets, drive the tanks, run on the ground with their weapons, risk their lives so that we can go to work, cook, watch movies and sleep at peace. So write your Will as a mark of support to say that not just those in uniform, but the civilians too are prepared.
Monika Halan is consulting editor at Mint and writes on household finance, policy and regulation
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