BackSetting a course for the country’s future politics
To overcome its current plight, the Congress must get closer to triumph, if not victory
PremiumThe counting of votes in the upcoming assembly elections in Gujarat and Himachal, which take place on 8 December, will be crucial for India’s polity and politics. Gujarat has already twice had a huge impact on national politics.
Please allow me to take you back 50 years to make my point. The assembly elections of 1972 were decisively won by the Congress. Of 168 seats, it bagged 140. After only 16 months, the Congress replaced its chief minister, Ghanshyam Oja. Chiman Bhai Patel took his place, but with time resentment at the sharp rise in prices of foodgrains, edible oil, and other necessities grew. Students got agitated. Opposition parties, too, had an axe to grind. As the situation worsened, Indira Gandhi was forced to suspend the state government of her own party.
In March 1974, the students of Bihar also started agitating, spurred on by the success of the student movement in Gujarat. Inspired by this, Jaiprakash Narayan called for “Sampoorn Kranti" (total revolution). This resistance quickly spread to other parts of the country. Meanwhile, Allahabad high court declared Indira’s election unlawful. She declared an Emergency to deal with these adverse circumstances. She called elections in 1977 and loosened the grip of the Emergency, but her party suffered a crushing defeat. As a result, a non-Congress government came to power for the first time. The change that started in Gujarat reached its logical conclusion with this. Eight non-Congress prime ministers have since assumed office. Of these, Narendra Modi is the only one under whose leadership a party has won the general elections with a clear majority for two consecutive terms.
The second time Gujarat had an impact on India’s politics, Modi was the driving force behind it.
Nobody can ever forget the devastating earthquake that hit Kutch on 26 January 2001. Keshubhai Patel of the BJP was the CM of Gujarat then. Patel’s handling of the aftermath of the calamity was an utter failure. The BJP high command handed Modi the reins and made him the chief minister to quell the rising public ire. Even his detractors were astounded by how he changed Bhuj in just a year. This marked the beginning of “Brand Modi" charisma, which has continued till this day.
Let us now discuss the third transformational prospect that has now emerged in Gujarat.
This election is unique in many ways. Until 2017, the battle was between the Congress and the BJP, but for the first time, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has emerged as a third force. AAP recently surprised political observers by capturing 28 seats in two municipalities in Gujarat’s local body elections.
According to supporters of AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal, the vote base of the Congress would be “transferred" to AAP in Gujarat as in Delhi and Punjab. If this occurs, AAP would have governments in three states and will play a significant role in framing the agenda for the 2024 general elections. However, many political observers believe that AAP although has generated a huge electoral buzz, reaching to this stage too early can be risky. The last time the Congress made such a “high" tempo in the beginning, it could not be maintained until the finish. The Samajwadi Party made the same mistake in the Uttar Pradesh polls, as did the BJP in West Bengal.
As a response, the Congress has embraced an entirely different strategy. Rahul Gandhi is on a cross-country march from Kanyakumari to Kashmir, but Gujarat has been purposely excluded from his route. Other party officials, and other two Gandhi family members, are still absent from the campaign. The Gujarat unit of the Congress has been urged to organize a few short marches. The country’s oldest party thinks that while the BJP would lose votes in urban regions to AAP, it will be able to retain its voters in tribal and rural areas. To overcome its current plight, the Congress must get closer to triumph, if not victory. Congress is also expecting a favourable outcome in Himachal.
On the other hand, the BJP adheres to the slogan “Modi Naam Kevalam" (one and only Modi). This strategy worked very well in 2017. At the time in Gujarat, voters were frequently heard telling the media , “Hum naraz hain par gaddar nahin" (we are furious with the BJP but we’re not traitors). And when the EVM seal was opened, the BJP received 49.44% of the votes, while the Congress received only 43%.
Without a doubt, all parties are playing a crucial part in this Mahakumbh of democracy, and now we must wait until 8 December. It will be a day of not simply success or defeat, but also the course of the country’s future politics. Let us enjoy the large chessboard set up for electoral politics till then.
Shashi Shekhar is editor-in-chief, Hindustan. Views are personal.
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