The second wave is different and its uncertainty could be costly
Covid’s impact this year will differ from that of 2020 and we need a policy programme designed to heal the economy’s scars
The good news first. India’s covid surge is showing its first signs of peaking. But with daily new cases still elevated, this is not a time for complacency. Even on the economic front, we worry that the damage done by this wave of infections could far outweigh the costs of lockdowns. Let me explain. This second wave is different from the first one last year in four ways. And each of these is stoking uncertainty, which in turn could hurt the economic recovery.