There is adequate room for all in Indian democracy

Some days back, at a “power dinner" in New Delhi, two gentlemen who have been in Union cabinets, but with opposing coalitions, asked me: What would be the outcome of the Maharashtra polls? I countered: Please tell me, as both of you are the “political insiders".

The member of the ruling dispensation said his coalition would return to power, insisting that he was convinced that Prime Minister Narendra Modi possesses a siddhi (magical power) that helps him wriggle out of the tightest of situations. This election will be another testimony to that “magic".

In his turn, the other leader, who had returned from Mumbai that day after attending a marathon election campaign review, said: “I have given up election forecasts after Haryana results. I don’t know what ‘secret sauce’ the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) uses to cast a spell on the electorate in the last few days of the campaign and all our calculations go for a toss."

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Now, what is this “siddhi" the first leader spoke of? He wasn’t talking about Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s spiritual powers; he was referring to the PM’s brilliant political skills and uncanny ability to read people’s minds. That’s why BJP workers believe they will make up for any loss of seats in one election, in the next.

This belief not only gives them confidence but also inspires them to soldier on as a tight-knit unit. Election results in Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh have proved that the National Democratic Alliance led by BJP has recovered from setbacks in both states just a few months ago.

What the second leader said betrays the fact that the Congress-led INDIA block is facing a crisis of confidence.

The Maharashtra victory wasn’t scripted easily. The challenges were many. Ever since the Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar factions splintered from their parent parties, experts thought the public would punish them. Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar, too, tried to play the disloyalty card in their favour but failed miserably. The Mahayuti government stalled Maratha consolidation.

Winning over Muslims

In fact, Ajit Pawar was encouraged to win over Muslim votes. This sounded the death knell for Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). The “Ladki Bahin Scheme" introduced four months before the assembly elections proved to be the game changer as it hit the right chord with women voters.

Women are continually raising their electoral clout with each passing election. In Jharkhand, they threw their weight behind Hemant Soren, who won women over with the “Maiyya Samman" scheme targeting mothers.

These elections have made it clear that sympathy and legacy aren’t enough to ensure victory. You need to work on the ground.

In Maharashtra, the BJP didn’t make any mistake. Ticket distribution and coalition partner management were handled with care and a lot of wisdom under the leadership of home minister Amit Shah. And the results speak for themselves. BJP with a strike rate of 88.6%, Shinde’s Shiv Sena with 71.3%, and Ajit Pawar’s Rashtrawadi Congress’s 69.5% have all contributed to the landslide victory.

But why did BJP, which won Maharashtra, fail in Jharkhand?

The reasons are many. Unlike in Maharashtra, heavy-weight leaders were absent in parties that backed NDA. In INDIA, there was no leader of stature to challenge Hemant Soren. So, there was no confusion in the rank and file or the voters. Soren’s arrest a few months before the elections, put paid to “anti-incumbency". BJP did try to effect a Maharashtra-like defection but Champai Soren couldn’t repeat a Shinde or a Pawar feat.

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Another visible trend in these elections is that the Congress is steadily losing its ability to win on its own in the Hindi heartland.

Despite the Jharkhand setback, it’s clear BJP will prepare for the coming elections with renewed gusto. Another benefit will be that NDA partners will work with the Prime Minister with greater deference. It will help Modi expedite his agenda and schemes.

We can hazard a guess as to what will happen to Shinde. He has held out on his own against Uddhav, but still has to emerge as Balasaheb’s heir. If he’s unable to retain the chief minister’s post faces new challenges in the future.

As far as the opposition is concerned, it can brush off the drubbing insisting that it has won two out of four assembly elections.

Priyanka Gandhi has won her election from Wayanad. Would she be able to breathe fresh life into the Congress Party along with brother Rahul? It’s clear the opposition has received a big jolt, yet they have enough room to rest and recuperate.

This is the beauty of Indian democracy. There’s always a space for everyone.

Shashi Shekhar is editor-in-chief, Hindustan. Views are personal.

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