When central banks stop tightening will depend on a tough-to-estimate neutral rate that can keep economies on an even keel
Most economists in central banks, governments, the financial sector and academia failed to anticipate the sharp rise in inflation this year. It can be said in their defence that even the most sophisticated forecasters could not have predicted the Russian invasion of Ukraine. That would have required a crystal ball rather than a forecasting model. Inflation in many developed economies is now running at twice the rate forecast even six months ago.
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