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Business News/ Opinion / Columns/  Opinion | Why everyone is not waiting with bated breath for a vaccine
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Opinion | Why everyone is not waiting with bated breath for a vaccine

While a vaccine might be an antidote to the corona crisis, uncertainty acts against human greed

Photo: ReutersPremium
Photo: Reuters

A news report in the Financial Times (Obesity Dangers Make Covid-19 A Rebuke To Unequal Societies, 2 May 2020) set me thinking. First, we learnt that the virus largely infected the elderly and otherwise vulnerable. Fatality among youngsters was rare. Then, we learnt that many were asymptomatic. For a while, the possibility that loss of smell was a strong symptom of infection was in circulation. Then, we learnt that countries in colder regions bore the brunt of covid-19, while countries in warmer parts of the world did not fare as badly. There was a bifurcation even there. Among countries in colder regions, there emerged a strong negative correlation between countries that have ongoing BCG vaccinations and covid-19 infections and countries that don’t. Causality is not yet established, but the correlation between BCG vaccination and low infection exists. Now, this news report makes the case that along with old age and co-morbidity (pre-existing vulnerabilities), obesity has emerged as an important causal factor. “In New York City, a study of 4,000 Covid-19 patients found that obesity is the second strongest predictor, after their age, of whether someone over 60 will need critical care." Japan has one of the world’s largest old-age populations and the winter there can be severe and long. Yet, fatalities in Japan are far lower than in the United States or United Kingdom.

In the world of finance, there are reports (Private Equity Poised To Face A Reckoning After Gilded Decade, BloombergQuint, 2 May 2020) that the private equity model of the past decade has begun to unravel. That model was a replay of the junk bond funding model of the 1980s: Buy companies, load them with debt, strip them of assets, declare oneself special dividends, lay off workers, immiserate other employees, and pocket fees from investors for thus destroying enterprises.

So, it is hard to stop the question popping up in one’s head of whether covid-19 has somehow served to regulate the excesses of the typical modern, globalized, fast-paced, urban adult and his economy. That is a stretch, admittedly, because the virus is not just revealing and fixing some of the world’s bad habits—we will come to that—but it is also destroying lives and livelihoods that have nothing to do with those habits. It is a negative force, but it might trigger reflection as well.

Some are adamantly optimistic that, post-covid, a better balance might emerge between environmental considerations and economic imperatives. Two weeks ago, in these pages, I raised the possibility that the palpable evidence of cleaner air and water and the return of birds and sea-living creatures to their natural habitats might persuade governments and citizens to take the environment more seriously than they have done so far in their pursuit of material prosperity. Then came the news that Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) foresees 75% of its workers working from home by 2025. At the margin, this has to be good for the environment, just as less domestic and international travel across the world will surely be. As more companies that can follow the TCS model do so, there will be fewer cars on the road, fewer accidents and less polluted air.

So, amid all the uncertainty and gloom, can the world get better and heal? Anecdotal stories are powerful. They leave a stronger impression than dry statistics do. But, on matters that affect planet Earth, are anecdotes and individual stories adequate? Alternatively, will they end up being no better than myths? I lean towards the latter for the following reasons.

There is a story that Hermes, the luxury goods seller, is betting on “revenge shopping" by Chinese consumers to make up for lost sales over the past two months. This “revenge" is supposed to be against the virus. Separately, but also related, it has been “business as usual" in the Western world of economic policymaking. In the name of rescuing economies from collapse, greater encouragement has been provided to take on reckless bets.

In the US, rich universities and large listed companies have sought to benefit from programmes set up to help small and medium businesses. In other words, if humans have to accommodate and concede the right of other living organisms to their habitats and life patterns, and make eco-friendly adjustments, then this has to manifest itself in the way humans organize their affairs in other spheres as well. That is, it has to be holistic. Second, to paraphrase John Gray, such accommodation requires a collective effort that will not be mobilized for the sake of universal humanity (Why This Crisis Is A Turning Point In History, New Statesman, 1 April 2020).

Perhaps, those who yearn to see a more balanced world that is less hurried and less obsessed with economic growth at all cost would not be terribly disappointed should the world fail in its efforts to quickly develop a vaccine. A vaccine will eliminate uncertainty and restore the path to unsustainable living and self-aggrandizement. Therefore, while a vaccine might be the antidote to the covid crisis, uncertainty acts as an antidote to human greed and the unbalanced world it has spawned. In that sense, the problem we face is philosophical and not scientific.

V. Anantha Nageswaran is a member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister. These are the author’s personal views

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Published: 04 May 2020, 10:27 PM IST
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