Having data on a country's population and demography enables better policy formulation for inclusive growth and effective targeting to optimize resource utilization. The last detailed census we had was in 2011. After that, we have been relying on indirect databases for policy formulation as the 2021 census has been given a miss.
We must identify sub-populations to which different benefits are to be devolved, including free rations. If accurate data isn’t available and projections are made, it could lead to pilferage, with ghost beneficiaries.
The 2011 census has data on households by house listing and caste, which is further corroborated by the Socio Economic Caste Census (SECC) conducted in 2011 and released in 2015. The number of people in each household, their gender and status on access to water, electricity, toilet, house, education level, work and employment activity, among others, are also enumerated.
Census 2011 found that around 13% of families in villages lived in one-room houses while 56% of rural households lacked agricultural land. SECC 2011 recorded a higher number of illiterates than the 2011 Census.
Without household census data, targeting special policies at our young population will remain a dream. An updated census will identify these youth and enable their mapping to the common household database.
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The 2011 census enumerated a population of 1,210 million, with 620 million males and 580 million females. The death rates declined from 25 per 1000 population in 1951 to 7.2 per 1000 in 2011; life expectancy at birth increased from 36.7 years in 1951 to 67.9 years in 2012.
The ageing population data is equally important, so that the government can work on ensuring they have access to public places and their health needs are taken care of. There was an increase of 181.96 million persons in India’s absolute headcount over the decade to 2011. Without a fresh census, one can’t be sure of how much further the population has risen.
Other numbers like the number of Aadhaar registrations, PAN cards, mobile phones and MGNREGA users gives us an idea. Aadhaar claims to cover 90% of India’s population. This places the population around 1,350 million. There are 702.4 millipn crore PAN card holders, there are 1.2 billion mobile phones, 750 million of them smart phones. MGNREGA has 275 million registered workers, with 84 million workers seeking work.
Thus, it is important to conduct a census immediately. Extrapolation would be faulty as our birth rate has shown a decline since 2011, as has longevity.
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For poverty, we have two approaches which have yielded outcomes. Around 415 million people exited poverty within a span of 15 years between 2005 and 2021 in India, according to the latest Global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), but then corroborative numbers indicate that India ranked 111th out of 125 countries on the Global Hunger Index-2023, with the country reporting the highest child wasting rate at 18.7%. India ranked 107th out of 121 countries in 2022. Thus, we need to relook at the parameters of poverty.
Once done, the census can deliver household-wise data and help us capture all government interventions in a single database like SAMAGRA to enable better targeting of policies. We also need transparency in the usage of the data.
The poor, those suffering from malnutrition and the hungry can then be suitably targeted. Equally important is to support the youth through appropriate skilling and the creation of sustainable employment. All this can happen when a census is conducted. Until then, we will have to rely on MGNREGA for poverty relief, as nearly all the poor are registered there.
The author is a development economist and a former secretary to the Government of India.