CoP-28 must focus on the climate-fuelled health crisis

That is the key finding of the latest Lancet Countdown report on climate change and health, authored by a group of leading health and climate scientists that I led. Undoubtedly, this grim conclusion will not come as a shock to the millions suffering from climate-related health issues and their loved ones. Most of us, wherever we live, are directly or indirectly affected by this crisis.

As climate change worsens, its effects on our physical and mental health are no longer hypothetical. Our research finds that, compared with 1981-2010, the increasing frequency of heatwaves and droughts over the past few years has exposed 127 million more people to moderate or severe food insecurity in 2021. Meanwhile, outdoor air pollution from the combustion of dirty fuels claims 1.9 million lives annually, and infectious diseases like dengue are reaching new regions.

Yet, despite 27 years of annual climate-change talks, world leaders still refuse to acknowledge the urgent need to phase out fossil fuels. Despite overwhelming evidence that fossil-fuel combustion is the primary driver of today’s health crisis, a draft statement on climate change and health, set to be released during the United Nations Climate Change Conference (CoP-28) in Dubai, omits any reference to the issue.

With many countries and companies backtracking on climate commitments, the world is moving in the wrong direction. At the current rate of GHG emissions, we are heading for a global temperature increase of nearly 3° Celsius by 2100, far above the 1.5°C target established by the 2015 Paris climate agreement. The consequences could be catastrophic. Even with a global mean temperature increase of just under 2°C, annual heat-related deaths are projected to increase by 370% by mid-century. The most vulnerable groups, the elderly and children, are now exposed to twice as many heatwave days as they were 30 years ago. And with heatwaves becoming increasingly frequent, the number of people suffering from moderate or severe food insecurity could increase by roughly 525 million by mid-century

Beyond these direct effects, the climate crisis hurts individual well-being and the socioeconomic conditions necessary for a healthy population. In 2022, heatwaves resulted in a loss of 490 billion working hours worldwide. Even if we manage to limit global warming to just below 2°C, heat-related labour loss is projected to increase by 50%. These effects won’t be distributed evenly. Regions that have contributed the least to climate change—Africa, South and Central America, Asia and small island states—often bear the brunt of climate-related health risks. Given the urgency of the threat we face, the current pace of global efforts to reduce emissions is insufficient, falling far short of the Paris targets. Energy-based emissions hit an all-time high in 2022, while renewables still account for only 9.5% of the world’s electricity. Households still rely on dirty fuels.

While policymakers are tempted to address this crisis incrementally, solving one problem at a time or focusing on adaptation alone is insufficient. Without significant emissions reductions, adaptation will be futile. The climate-fuelled health crisis cannot be solved without urgently shifting away from fossil fuels. By focusing on climate policies that enhance public health and well-being, governments could prevent premature deaths, build a more resilient population and a stronger workforce, and bolster their domestic economies.

How can this be achieved? Our report outlines 11 measures across five priority areas. First, to ensure that climate hazards remain within the adaptive capacity of our health systems, we must reduce GHG emissions in accordance with the Paris pact. We must phase out fossil fuels through a just energy transition that mitigates the health effects of air pollution and expands access to clean energy, especially in regions where energy poverty remains a challenge. We must accelerate adaptation efforts to protect communities already suffering from the health fallout of climate change, by forging cooperative links between the health sector, environmental organizations and meteorological services. And by eliminating all subsidies, lending, and investment in fossil fuels, we can create space for climate financing.

The health sector must lead this transition. Health adaptation is critical. We must implement public-health measures that reduce air pollution, advocate healthier low-carbon diets, encourage active lifestyles, and enforce regulations on polluting industries. And, given that the health sector itself accounts for 4.6% of global GHG emissions, it could play a significant direct role in global decarbonization as well.

CoP-28 is a test of world leaders’ commitment to tackle the climate crisis. A genuine focus on health could catalyse a shift away from fossil fuels and facilitate adaptation efforts. Failing to do so will result in a conference that does little more than pay lip service to health concerns. Climate-related deaths will keep increasing unchecked and a liveable future will drift further beyond reach. ©2023/project syndicate