Opinion
Dani Rodrik: Trump’s coalition could collapse under the weight of its own contradictions
Summary
- Elon Musk versus Steve Bannon is just one division in MAGA-land. Divergent world-views may co-exist, sure, but the special agendas of key players would make serious ruptures all but inevitable.
Although Donald Trump came to office riding a wave of hostility against ‘elites,’ his enablers are leading members of the establishment and plutocracy. As was true during his first term, Trump has surrounded himself with a mix of conventional Republican politicians, Wall Street financiers, and economic nationalists. But this time, these groups have been joined by members of the techno-right, represented most glaringly by Elon Musk, the world’s wealthiest person.
What unites these groups, at least for now, is not Trump’s character or leadership. Rather, it is the belief that their specific agendas will be better served under Trump. Conservative Republicans want low taxes and less regulation, while economic nationalists want to close the trade deficit and revive US factories. Free-speech absolutists want to end ‘woke censorship,’ while the techno-right wants a free hand to enact its own vision of the future.
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Irrespective of their pet projects, these groups all regarded Kamala Harris as a hindrance and Trump as an ally. Most do not oppose democracy, per se, but seem willing to overlook Trump’s authoritarianism so long as their agenda is served. Press them on Trump’s anti-democratic impulses and contempt for the rule of law, and they’ll equivocate.
During Trump’s first term, I shared my concerns with one of his leading economic advisors, but my interlocutor pooh-poohed my worries and said that Democrats and the administrative state were bigger threats. He was interested in his boss’s commitment to tariffs, not any possible impact on democracy.
Similarly, on a recent episode of Ezra Klein’s podcast, free-speech absolutist Martin Gurri explained that his support for Trump was driven mainly by the Biden clampdown on free expression. Biden had “basically told [social media] platforms: You have to adhere to European standards of good behaviour online," Gurri claimed.
Yet the curbs Trump has placed on speech by civil servants and state-funded private entities are far more egregious. Even as he concedes that Trump might end up “being even worse," Gurri seems unfazed. When push comes to shove, beating ‘wokes’ apparently matters more than the First Amendment.
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With narrow agendas placed above democratic principles, the risk of a slide toward authoritarianism should be obvious. Fortunately, the likelier outcome is that these competing agendas will clash, causing the Trump coalition to implode. The sharpest lines of conflict are between economic nationalists and the techno-right. Both camps see themselves as anti-system and both want to disrupt a regime they feel was imposed by Democratic elites. But they embody different visions of America.
Economic nationalists want to return to a mythical past marked by industrial glory, whereas techies envision an AI-run utopia. One is populist, the other elitist. One has faith in the wisdom and common sense of ordinary folks, the other privileges technology. One wants to stop immigration, the other welcomes skilled newcomers. One is parochial, the other globalist. One wants to break up Silicon Valley, the other to empower it. One wants to soak the rich, and the other spoon-feed the wealthy.
Nationalist-populists claim to speak for those Musk’s envisioned tech revolution would leave behind. So, it is not surprising that they hold Silicon Valley’s ‘techno-feudalists’ in contempt. Steve Bannon, a leading economic nationalist, has gone so far as to call Musk a “parasitic illegal immigrant." Musk and what he represents must “be stopped," Bannon warns. “If we don’t… it’s going to destroy not just this country, it’s going to destroy the world."
While Bannon does not serve in the Trump administration, he is a major figure in the MAGA movement and has close ties with many top administration staffers. Yet it is clear that Musk now has Trump’s ear. The White House has given free rein to his Department of Government Efficiency.
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It is typical of personalistic leaders like Trump to pit allies (courtiers, really) against each other so that none amasses too much power. Trump may think he can stay on top and leverage conflicts for his own advantage. But such tactics work best when the rivalry is over government resources and rents, rather than ideology.
Given the divergent world-views and policy preferences of those in the Trump administration, a showdown is all but inevitable. But what would come after? Will there be paralysis, or will one of the groups assert dominance? Will the Democrats be able to capitalize on the rift? Will the prospects for American democracy be revived or diminished even further?
Regardless of the outcome, today’s tragedy is that less-educated working-class voters who flocked to Trump’s anti-elitist message will remain losers. None of the contending wings of Trump’s coalition offers a compelling vision for them. This applies even to the economic nationalists (their rhetoric notwithstanding), whose aspirations hinge on an unrealistic revival of factory jobs in the US.
As different elites fight for their own versions of America, the urgent policy agenda needed to create a middle-class economy in a post-industrial society will remain as distant as ever. ©2025/Project Syndicate
The author is a professor of international political economy at Harvard Kennedy School, and the author of ‘Straight Talk on Trade: Ideas for a Sane World Economy’.
