Opinion
Trump’s shock and awe tactics: India should strengthen its shield
Summary
- The Trump presidency in the US has unsettled core assumptions of the world’s future. As peace and prosperity stare at uncertainty, New Delhi should do its utmost to secure Indian interests.
The term ‘shock and awe’ is usually attributed to George W. Bush, who purportedly used it to describe the US Army’s prodigious and forceful ability to initiate regime change, before deploying it in Iraq almost 22 years ago. In reality, the term made its appearance first in a 1996 Pentagon briefing to paint a picture of the US Army’s devastating firepower that could swiftly dominate an enemy.
What the document did not predict, nor anybody envisage, was a future US leader using shock-and-awe tactics even at home. America’s 47th president, Donald Trump, has been blitzing through his administration as if it’s a T20 cricket match with limited overs. The breakneck spate of executive orders from the White House over the past 20 days makes the usual news cycle look pale.
Some observers suspect that Trump wants to remake the US presidency in the image of an imperium, vesting the Oval Office with absolute authority that transcends the limitations imposed by a balance of power between the executive, legislature and judiciary.
Also Read: Self-harm alert: Trump’s ‘man of steel’ ambitions will make America grate again
Given how global multilateralism has been hollowed out, the turn America has taken could have serious consequences for its own citizens as well as everyone else around the globe. Trump’s stated desire to re-occupy the Panama Canal, prise Greenland out of Denmark’s benign protectorate and re-classify Canada as another state of the US has people in these countries up in arms.
His push to have Gaza’s Palestinians resettled elsewhere (namely, in Egypt and Jordan), so that the strip’s real-estate value can be exploited, has stunned the world. This could turn the region’s discord so deep and wide that strife, militancy and bloodshed could become its permanent leitmotif, rather than lasting peace.
Also Read: Trump’s Gaza plan: There is more to a home than real estate
And then, there are the shudders sent around the planet by US trade policy. Trump’s flat 25% tariff on imported steel and aluminium, with all exceptions and country quotas axed, is sure to stoke a trade war even as it raises US costs.
According to provisional data, US steel mills churned out around 81 million tonnes in 2024, operating at around 75% of capacity, and the country imported another 26.5 million tonnes; this implies that US steel users find US-made steel either inferior or over-priced. Imports thus make up a quarter of its market on average.
An import levy will raise the prices of finished steel and products that use this metal as an input. The story of aluminium is similar. Such price shocks could nullify the US Federal Reserve’s efforts to quash inflation.
Also Read: Shyam Saran: India must navigate the Trump era’s trade turbulence with care
The cascading effects of Trump’s policies could impact the Indian economy as well, something that is bound to figure in his talks scheduled this week with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
India has a tough negotiating path ahead, given Trump’s current blustery form and stop-start policy announcements. New Delhi may have to relent somewhat on a few import tariffs, but should largely push back, given the leverage assured by a big defence shopping list and the dependence of US tech firms on Indian development centres for products and profits, among other factors.
Both leaders have shown comfort with relationships of give-and-take. This, hopefully, will lead to an equilibrium that stays optimally stable. Trump has injected large doses of uncertainty into a post-pandemic world that bears inordinate levels of debt. India’s best strategy would be to protect its interests and shield its people from any depredatory move that anybody’s delusions of grandeur may give rise to.
