The monsoon season technically ended on 30 September. As expected, it was affected by the El Niño phenomenon, which typically leads to deficient rainfall in the Indian subcontinent.
While final figures are yet to be released, our cumulative rainfall deficit until 29 September was 13%, marginally higher than during the 2014 drought. More than the aggregate, what matters is the geographical distribution of rainfall. This reveals a much larger deficiency of 25% in east India and the southern peninsula.
The least deficit is in central India (just 3%) and then in north-west India (6%). However, there is large variation within central India, with some vulnerable areas such as Marathwada (-39%), Vidarbha (-27%) and Saurashtra (-23%) affected badly.
North-west India is generally an irrigated area and thus less impacted by insufficient rains during the monsoon season. However, both eastern India and the southern peninsula include large parts that are primarily rain-fed, and weak rainfall impacts these areas proportionately more. For example, Bihar (-32%), Assam (-40%), Rayalaseema (-40%) and the interior regions of Karnataka (-31%) are likely to witness a significant impact on agricultural production.
Within large states too, the rainfall deficiency is not uniform, with some parts receiving excess rain and others largely deficient. For example, although Bihar has an overall 31% deficiency, 66% of its districts reported deficient rainfall. As for other states, 97% of Karnataka’s, 64% of Maharashtra’s, 82% of Tamil Nadu’s and 68% of Gujarat’s districts reported deficient rainfall.
It is hard to predict the precise impact on agricultural output, given India’s diverse agro-climatic zones and varied cropping patterns. Any optimism over this year’s sowing coverage, at 110.8 million hectares, is largely misplaced. Sowing data in India can hardly serve as an indicator of agri-health, given the preponderance of small and tiny farm holdings.
The predominance of subsistence farming also means that farmers don’t leave their land fallow despite deficient rains. Leaving it fallow is a luxury that few can afford. Deficient rainfall, however, does show up in cropping-pattern changes and the yields of crops sown.
While yield data will only be available after the harvest, sowing numbers suggest a decline in rice acreage by 1.7 million tonnes, with a shift towards pulses and coarse cereals.
However, an inference can be drawn from past experience, particularly of recent years. In 2014, when India’s rainfall deficiency was last at 12%, its impact on gross value added (GVA) was not significant, with agricultural GVA increasing by 1.2%.
The index of agricultural production, however, saw a sharp 4.5% decline. Rice, the primary kharif crop, witnessed only a 1% output decline but the overall output of cereals in that agricultural year, including rabi crops, was down 4.5%, along with pulses and foodgrain output, which fell 4.9%, the most after 2009-10. It wasn’t rice but wheat that witnessed a big decline in 2014; its output dropped 9.7%, which pulled down overall cereal production.
This year is likely to be similar, with rabi crops also likely to get affected; water reservoirs have been impacted and El Niño is expected to strengthen in the coming months. By latest estimates, India’s reservoir levels are lower than normal and below last year’s.
Any assessment must, therefore, also account for these likely production losses. The rising cost of fertilizers has already led to decline in fertilizer use. Along with rising energy prices, Indian farmers face a double whammy of declining farm production and profitability.
The issue is no longer whether agriculture will witness lower output and lower yields, but the extent of it nationally and its regional spread. Since this year’s rainfall deficiency has been greater in many rain-fed areas and other zones known for low agricultural productivity, the impact will not be limited to agricultural income compression. International agencies such as the United Nations World Food Programme have predicted a 22% global rise in the severity of acute hunger.
While India may be relatively insulated, thanks to publicly held cereal stocks, a threat to food security cannot be ignored. At the same time, supply shocks will create inflationary pressures that make it all the more difficult for the poor and vulnerable to buy staples.
At a time when India’s rural economy is already under stress due to rising input costs (mainly energy and fertilizers), the priority should be to protect the rural economy from the twin threats of food insecurity and income compression.
The author is associate professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University and visiting fellow at the Centre de Sciences Humaines, New Delhi.